Nominal GDP (US$mn, 2018)a | 126,390 | |
Population (thousand, 2018)a | 42,639 | |
GDP per capita (USD, 2018)a | 2964 | |
Credit ratings (long-term foreign currency)b | Fitch | B− |
Moody’s | Caa2 | |
S&P | B− | |
Country Summary
- Since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine has wavered politically between Russia and the West, which has produced periods of social unrest and turmoil, as well as economic crisis. Most recently, the political crisis that followed the public’s rejection of President Yanukovych’s shift away from the EU and towards Russia in November 2013, just a decade after the ‘Orange revolution’ of 2004, brought with it another period of turmoil, including conflict with Russia over its illegal occupation of Crimea, which still continues.
- The resulting 2014–2015 crisis still shapes Ukraine’s economy. Nominal GDP in USD terms fell by 50% from peak to trough over 2013–2015, inflation rocketed and the currency collapsed. But the international support umbrella and IMF-led financing helped to stabilise the economy—at the time of writing, the IMF announced staff agreement on a new stand-by agreement (SBA) to replace the stalled extended fund facility (EFF). Growth has recovered, but private sector confidence remains weak and the impact of fiscal austerity and structural reform have weakened the government of President Poroshenko ahead of the next presidential election in March 2019, partly also because he is perceived as not doing enough to tackle corruption.
- Ukraine has seen a number of commercial debt restructurings and IMF programmes, with varying degrees of success, over the past 20 years. The 2014–2015 crisis was no different. Ukraine was forced to restructure much of its bonded debt as part of its IMF bailout. However, bondholders were able to secure relatively favourable terms. Many banks and corporates also had to restructure their commercial debt. Public debt eased to 72% of GDP in 2017, although it remains high, while growth and investor confidence remain highly dependent on IMF engagement. Ukraine even managed to return to the market with a new 15-year bond issue in autumn 2017, just two years after its sovereign debt restructuring.
Economic data | Avg a | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 (e) | 2018 (f) | 2019 (f) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP growth | −0.5 | −6.6 | −9.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 |
Inflation (annual average) | 14.1 | 12.1 | 48.7 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 7.3 |
Current account (% of GDP) | −3.9 | −3.9 | 1.7 | −1.5 | −1.9 | −3.1 | −3.9 |
Reserves (US$bn, end-period)b | 24.7 | 7.5 | 13.3 | 15.5 | 18.8 | 18.0c | – |
Reserves/imports (months)d | 3.7 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | – | – |
Overall fiscal balance (% of GDP)e | −3.4 | −4.5 | −1.2 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.5 | −2.6 |
Currency (ticker) | Hryvnia (UAH) | ||||||
FX regime | De jure floating, according to the IMF. The central bank intervenes to smooth fluctuations in the currency. The IMF classifies Ukraine as maintaining exchange restrictions and having multiple currency practices. | ||||||
Key exports | Metals (26%), agriculture (21%), machinery (10%) | ||||||
Key figures | Party | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
President | Petro Poroshenko | Poroshenko Bloc | Jun. 2014 |
Prime minister | Volodymyr Groysman | Poroshenko Bloc | Apr. 2016 |
Minister of finance | Oksana Markarova | Independent | Jun. 2018a |
Key opposition figure | Yulia Tymoshenko | Fatherland | Mar. 2010 |
Central bank governor | Yakiv Smoliy | – | Mar. 2018 |
Politics
Executive power | |
|---|---|
Ukraine became a parliamentary democracy after constitutional reforms were accepted in 2006. The president is head of the state, and the prime minister and his cabinet of ministers represent the senior executive body. It is the role of the president to nominate the prime minister, who must be elected by parliament. The prime minister subsequently appoints a cabinet, although the appointed cabinet requires parliamentary approval. The exceptions are the foreign and defence ministers, nominated by the president, with approval of deputies. | |
Presidential term: Five years | Parliamentary term: Five years |
Legislature |
Unicameral, the Supreme Council of Ukraine or Verkhovna Rada (450 seats); members voted on a mixed voting system (50% under party lists and 50% under simple-majority constituencies) with a proportional basis to those parties that gain 5% or more of the national electoral vote. Members serve five-year terms. In the 2014 elections, only 438 seats will be filled, with the remaining 12 seats reserved for the contested region of Crimea. |
Elections | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Next due Presidential: March 2019; Legislative: November 2019 | |||
Last legislative election (2014) | Seats | Last presidential (2014) | % of vote |
Petro Poroshenko ... | |||