An Accidental Brexit

New EU and Transatlantic Economic Perspectives

Paul J.J. Welfens

• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
• Year: 2017
• Print ISBN: 9783319582702
• eBook ISBN: 9783319582719
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business General
• Index: Business

This book analyzes how the EU referendum in the United Kingdom came to pass and what the foreseeable consequences are for the UK, Europe, US and world economy. The Brexit decision represents a momentous event for Europe, which weakens the EU and shifts the global balance of power. Welfens argues the EU has lost its appeal and is not in keeping with the twenty-first century, which is being shaped by Asia and digital innovations. The subject of immigration from EU countries played a key role in the Brexit decision, with an anti-EU campaign that was profoundly biased. The estimated impact of the referendum was deeply distorted by the broadly inadequate information produced by the Cameron government, which omitted the expected 10 percent loss in income caused by leaving the EU. With this this information, there could have been a clear pro-EU majority. In the absence of a second referendum, one cannot know what the British electorate really wants. Both the Brexit decision and new President of the United States Donald Trump's approach to European disintegration dynamics also raise serious questions about the future of transatlantic relations.

Table of contents

• Preface
• Contents
• List of Figures
• List of Tables
• 1 Introduction
• Part I The Referendum Process and Politico-Economic Aspects
• 2 Brexit: A Campaign and a Fatal Communication Disaster
• 3 A Sequencing of the Economic Effects of Brexit
• Part II UK, US and EU Perspectives
• 4 Aspects of British History and Policy
• 5 Key Issues for the New British Government
• 6 Medium-Term UK Macroeconomic Perspectives
• 7 Brexit from a US Point of View
• 8 Trump Policies Expected to Contradict 70 Years of American Principles and Rationale
• 9 Can Brexit Be an Economic Success and What Effects Can Be Expected for the EU27?
• Part III EU Developments
• 10 What Is the EU? A Redistribution and Trade Engine with a Political Element
• 11 The History of European Integration and the Role of Rules
• 12 EU Integration Perspectives After Brexit
• 13 Eurozone Perspectives and Reform Needs
• Part IV Consequences
• 14 A Second Brexit Referendum: A Scenario for Staying in the EU
• 15 Beyond Brexit: Inequality Dynamics and a European Social Market Economy
• 16 Conclusions
• Appendix—Annex 1: Knowledge Creation and Enhanced Investment Dynamics in a Europe with New Institutions
• Appendix—Annex 2: UK Government Referenda Information (2014; 2016)
• Appendix—Annex 3: Excerpts from the “Brexit Speech” of Prime Minister May, January 17, 2017
• Appendix—Annex 4: Brexit: EU27-UK Negotiations—Risk Analysis for the Euro Area and the EU27
• Appendix—Annex 5: Top 10 Countries Ranked by GDP (Nominal and Purchasing Power Parity)
• Appendix—Annex 6: Data on Gross Domestic Product and Population as Share of World Totals
• Appendix—Annex 7: An Optimistic Medium-Term View from the Office for Budget Responsibility
• Appendix—Annex 8: UK Domestic Value-Added Content of Gross Exports
• Appendix—Annex 9: Germany’s Massive Export Surplus: Questions for the Eurozone and the EU
• Index