Advanced Introduction to Scenario Planning

Paul J.H. Schoemaker

• Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
• Year: 2022
• Print ISBN:
  9781800376793
• eBook ISBN:
  9781800376809
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business Strategy
• Index: Business

Elgar Advanced Introductions are stimulating and thoughtful introductions to major fields in the social sciences, business and law, expertly written by the world's leading scholars. Designed to be accessible yet rigorous, they offer concise and lucid surveys of the substantive and policy issues associated with discrete subject areas. Providing a panoramic overview of the evolving world of scenario planning, this Advanced Introduction uses topical case studies to analyze the developing methodologies of scenario planning. Written by Paul J.H. Schoemaker, a leading authority on the topic, this book synthesizes rigorous theory and practical experiences including best practises, normative views, and future challenges or opportunities for scenario planning. Key Features: • Explains why future uncertainties require more than traditional risk analysis when ambiguous unknowns or Black Swans are involved• Illustrates scenario planning through an in-depth case analysis of the biosciences which, in the wake of global pandemics, are gaining in societal import• Examines how historical thinking and historiography can enrich scenarios by revisiting future projections made for South Africa post-apartheid • Shows why scenario planning fosters critical and creative thinking by overcoming myopic framing, overconfidence and other biases in organizations• Examines methodological and statistical techniques in scenario planning, including model building and simulations, and their connections to strategy formulation Interdisciplinary in its approach, this Advanced Introduction will prove invaluable to students and scholars of public policy, business management, and organizational studies. Its tools and practical advice will also be a vital resource to practitioners and policy leaders involved in leading or implementing scenario planning in their organizations.

Table of contents

• Front Matter
• Copyright
• Contents
• Acknowledgements
• 1. Introduction to scenario planning
• 2. What scenario planning is about
• PART I Setting the stage
• 3. A short history of scenario planning
• 4. Scenarios for the biosciences
• 5. Juxtaposing scenario narratives
• PART II Looking under the hood
• 6. Methodological perspectives and pointers
• 7. History, uncertainty and subjectivism
• 8. Links to strategy, plans and choices
• PART III Management challenges
• 9. Biases and practical pitfalls
• 10. Conclusions and future challenges
• Bibliography
• Index