Forewarned
eBook - ePub

Forewarned

A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction

  1. 304 pages
  2. English
  3. ePUB (mobile friendly)
  4. Available on iOS & Android
eBook - ePub

Forewarned

A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction

About this book

Whether it's an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or an expected barbecue season that sees record rainfall, forecasts have impacts on us all. But do forecasters tell you all that they know or what they really believe?When is your gut feeling likely to be better than a computer's prediction? Can you accurately predict your own emotional reaction to future events like a new job or a new house? And when is a 'forecast' not a forecast?Forewarned will answer these questions, and many more besides, covering a wide range of topics, from business to politics, sport and lotteries to that old perennial, the weather.Forewarned is a consumer's guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. By the end of the book you'll be better placed to make informed decisions in a volatile world. You'll know when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the vicissitudes and uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.

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Yes, you can access Forewarned by Paul Goodwin in PDF and/or ePUB format, as well as other popular books in History & World History. We have over one million books available in our catalogue for you to explore.

Information

Year
2017
Print ISBN
9781785902222
eBook ISBN
9781785902994
Topic
History
Index
History

Table of contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
  3. Dedication
  4. Contents
  5. Introduction
  6. Chapter 1: Neurons galore
  7. Chapter 2: A judgement on judgement
  8. Chapter 3: More bytes than we can chew
  9. Chapter 4: Spot the expert
  10. Chapter 5: Group power
  11. Chapter 6: Forecasting ourselves
  12. Chapter 7: I spy impostors!
  13. Chapter 8: The lure of one number
  14. Chapter 9: Those who neglect history
  15. Chapter 10: You can’t tell me my forecast was wrong
  16. Chapter 11: Knowing we don’t know and the danger of knowing
  17. Chapter 12: Conclusions
  18. Acknowledgements
  19. Index
  20. Copyright
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