Gulf Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars

[2 volumes]

Khalid Al-Rodhan, Anthony H. Cordesman

• Publisher: Praeger
• Year: 2006
• Print ISBN: 9780275992507
• eBook ISBN: 9780313084812
• Edition: 1
• Topic: History
• Subtopic: Military & Maritime History
• Index: History

The significance of the Persian Gulf to international peace and security and to the global energy market cannot be overstated. Events such as the attacks of September 11 and the rise in energy demand and prices have only highlighted the importance of stability in the Gulf to the health of the global economy. This book demonstrates that the nature of military and political threats in the Gulf states (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Yemen, and the UAE) has shifted during the past three years. Although the threat from Saddam Hussein's Iraq, which produced three recent, major conventional wars-Iran-Iraq (1980-88), Persian Gulf (1990), and Iraq (2003)-has largely disappeared, it has been replaced by concerns over the asymmetric warfare conducted by terrorist organizations and over the proliferation of WMDs by both states and terrorists. These developments are affecting the defense planning and strategic posture of each country, and this book analyzes developments in the force structures of the Gulf states and their ability to deal with this shift in the nature of the threat. The military and security forces of the Gulf states must evolve to adapt to the changing nature of the threat and take into account the risk of the Iraqi insurgency and the uncertainty surrounding Iraq's future. The key areas covered in this book include the internal terrorist threat to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states; the impact of Iran's nuclear program and the risk it poses to energy and internal security in the Gulf area; and border disputes within the region that could develop into conflict. In addition, the book studies the impact of the Iraq War on regional security and the fear of the insurgency spilling over into neighboring states. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan demonstrate a shift toward using internal security services to deal with the threat of extremism and asymmetric warfare. They also suggest that high energy prices and export revenues provide the Gulf countries the opportunity to upgrade their military forces and deal with their undercapitalization as a result of low oil prices in the 1990s. Moreover, they insist that the future of Iraq, the strategic and nuclear posture of Iran, and the terrorist threat will remain major risks and uncertainties in the short to medium run.

Table of contents

• CONTENTS
• FIGURES
• ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
• CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION: THE NEW BALANCING ACT IN THE GULF
• CHAPTER 2: BAHRAIN
• CHAPTER 3: KUWAIT
• CHAPTER 4: OMAN
• CHAPTER 5: QATAR
• CHAPTER 6: SAUDI ARABIA
• CHAPTER 7: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
• CHAPTER 8: IRAN
• CHAPTER 9: IRAQ
• CHAPTER 10: YEMEN
• CHAPTER 11: CONCLUSION: THE NEW BALANCING ACT IN THE GULF
• NOTES
• FIGURE 1.1: THE IRANIAN-IRAQI ARMS RACE DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR, 1981–1988
• FIGURE 1.2: GULF MILITARY SPENDING, 1997–2005
• FIGURE 1.3: THE GULF ARMS RACE IN ARMS IMPORTS, 1997–2004 (IN MILLIONS OF CURRENT U.S. DOLLARS)
• FIGURE 1.4: GULF MILITARY FORCES, 2006
• FIGURE 1.5: A TRIGGER FOR MAJOR INCREASE IN MILITARY SPENDING AND ARMS TRANSFERS? THE RISE IN GULF OIL EXPORT EARNINGS, 1971–2007
• FIGURE 1.6: POPULATION GROWTH IN THE GULF, 1950–2050
• FIGURE 1.7: MAJOR MEASURES OF KEY COMBAT EQUIPMENT STRENGTH IN 2006
• FIGURE 1.8: COMPARATIVE TRENDS IN GULF TOTAL ACTIVE MILITARY MANPOWER, 1979–2006
• FIGURE 1.9: TOTAL ACTIVE MILITARY MANPOWER IN ALL GULF FORCES, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 1.10: TOTAL GULF MILITARY MANPOWER BY SERVICE, 2006
• FIGURE 1.11: TOTAL GULF OPERATIONAL ARMORED FIGHTING VEHICLES, 2006
• FIGURE 1.12: TOTAL OPERATIONAL MAIN BATTLE TANKS IN ALL GULF FORCES, 1979–2006
• FIGURE 1.13: MEDIUM- TO HIGH-QUALITY MAIN BATTLE TANKS BY TYPE, 2006
• FIGURE 1.14: TOTAL OPERATIONAL OTHER ARMORED VEHICLES (LT. TANKS, LAVS, AIFVS, APCS, AND RECCE) IN GULF FORCES, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 1.15: GULF OTHER ARMORED FIGHTING VEHICLES BY CATEGORY, 2006
• FIGURE 1.16: ARMORED INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLES, RECONNAISSANCE VEHICLES, LAVS, AND LIGHT TANKS BY TYPE, 2006
• FIGURE 1.17: ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS IN GULF ARMIES, 2006
• FIGURE 1.18: TOTAL OPERATIONAL SELF-PROPELLED AND TOWED TUBE ARTILLERY AND MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS IN GULF FORCES, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 1.19: TOTAL OPERATIONAL GULF ARTILLERY WEAPONS, 2006
• FIGURE 1.20: GULF INVENTORY OF MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS BY CALIBER, 2006
• FIGURE 1.21: TOTAL OPERATIONAL COMBAT AIRCRAFT IN ALL GULF FORCES, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 1.22: TOTAL GULF HOLDINGS OF COMBAT AIRCRAFT, 2006
• FIGURE 1.23: GULF HIGH- AND MEDIUM-QUALITY FIXED-WING FIGHTER, FIGHTER ATTACK, ATTACK, STRIKE, AND MULTIROLE COMBAT AIRCRAFT BY TYPE, 2006
• FIGURE 1.24: GULF RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT, 2006
• FIGURE 1.25: SENSOR, AWACS, C4I, EW, AND ELINT AIRCRAFT, 2006
• FIGURE 1.26: GULF ATTACK, ANTISHIP, AND ASW HELICOPTERS, 2006
• FIGURE 1.27: GULF LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, 2006
• FIGURE 1.28: GULF NAVAL SHIPS BY CATEGORY, 2006
• FIGURE 1.29: GULF WARSHIPS WITH ANTISHIP MISSILES, 2006
• FIGURE 1.30: GULF MINE WARFARE SHIPS, 2006
• FIGURE 1.31: GULF AMPHIBIOUS WARFARE SHIPS, 2006
• FIGURE 1.32: GULF NAVAL AIRCRAFT AND HELICOPTER AIRCRAFT, 2006
• MAP 2.1: BAHRAIN
• FIGURE 2.1: BAHRAIN'S ARMS DELIVERIES BY SUPPLIER, 1993—2004
• FIGURE 2.2: BAHRAIN'S NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 2.3: BAHRAINI ARMY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 2.4: BAHRAINI AIR FORCE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 2.5: BAHRAINI NAVY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 2.6: BAHRAINI PARAMILITARY FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 2.7: BAHRAIN'S DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, 2006
• MAP 3.1: KUWAIT
• FIGURE 3.1: KUWAIT'S ARMS DELIVERIES BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 3.2: KUWAIT'S NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 3.3: KUWAITI ARMY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 3.4: KUWAITI AIR FORCE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 3.5: KUWAITI AIR DEFENSE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 3.6: KUWAITI NAVY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 3.7: KUWAITI COAST GUARD: FORCE STRUCTURE
• FIGURE 3.8: KUWAITI PARAMILITARY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 3.9: KUWAIT'S DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, 2006
• MAP 4.1: OMAN
• FIGURE 4.1: OMAN'S ARMS DELIVERIES BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 4.2: OMAN'S NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 4.3: OMANI ARMY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 4.4: OMANI AIR FORCE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 4.5: OMANI NAVY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 4.6: OMANI ROYAL GUARD'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 4.7: OMANI ROYAL YACHT SQUADRON'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 4.8: OMANI ROYAL FLIGHT'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 4.9: OMANI PARAMILITARY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 4.10: OMAN'S DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, 2006
• MAP 5.1: QATAR
• FIGURE 5.1: QATARI ARMY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 5.2: QATARI AIR FORCE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 5.3: QATARI AIR DEFENSE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 5.4: QATARI NAVY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 5.5: QATAR'S DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, 2006
• MAP 6.1: SAUDI ARABIA
• FIGURE 6.1: SAUDI ARABIA'S ARMS DELIVERIES BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 6.2: SAUDI ARABIA'S NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 6.3: SAUDI ARMY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 6.4: SAUDI NATIONAL GUARD'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 6.5: SAUDI NAVY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990—2006
• FIGURE 6.6: SAUDI AIR FORCE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 6.7: SAUDI AIR DEFENSE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 6.8: THE SAUDI INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMUNITY
• FIGURE 6.9: SAUDI MINISTRY OF INTERIOR MANPOWER, 2006
• FIGURE 6.10: BORDER GUARDS APPREHENSION OF WEAPONS AND EXPLOSIVES, 1995–2003
• FIGURE 6.11: SAUDI ARABIAN BUDGET BALANCE, 1994–2006
• FIGURE 6.12: SAUDI'S DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, 2006
• MAP 7.1: THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
• FIGURE 7.1: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES' ARMS DELIVERIES BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 7.2: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES' NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 7.3: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES ARMY FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 7.4: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AIR FORCE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 7.5: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AIR DEFENSE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 7.6: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES NAVY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 199–2006
• FIGURE 7.7: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES INTERNAL SECURITY'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• MAP 8.1: IRAN
• FIGURE 8.1: IRAN'S ARMS DELIVERIES BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 8.2: IRAN'S NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 8.3: IRANIAN ARMY'S FORCE STRUCTURE TRENDS, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 8.4: IRANIAN AIR FORCE'S FORCE STRUCTURE TRENDS, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 8.5: IRANIAN NAVY'S FORCE STRUCTURE TRENDS, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 8.6: ESTIMATED IRANIAN MISSILE PROFILES, 2006
• FIGURE 8.7: IRAN'S PARAMILITARY FORCES' FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• MAP 9.1: IRAQ
• FIGURE 9.1: IRAQ BEFORE THE GULF AND IRAQ WARS VS. MID-2006
• FIGURE 9.2: IRAQ'S MINISTRY OF DEFENSE FORCES' ASSESSED CAPABILITIES
• FIGURE 9.3: ESTIMATED MOD FORCE CAPABILITIES BY SERVICE: COMPARISON OF JUNE 2005 AND AUGUST 2006
• FIGURE 9.4: IRAQI ARMY BATTALIONS IN COMBAT: AUGUST 2004 TO AUGUST 2006
• FIGURE 9.5: GROWTH IN INDEPENDENT AND COMBINED COMBAT OPERATIONS (COMPANY LEVEL AND ABOVE)
• FIGURE 9.6: IRAQI AIR FORCE CAPABILITIES AS OF AUGUST 2006
• FIGURE 9.7: IRAQI NAVAL CAPABILITIES AS OF AUGUST 2006
• FIGURE 9.8: THE MANPOWER OF IRAQ'S MINISTRY OF INTERIOR FORCES BEFORE THEIR MID-2006 REORGANIZATION
• FIGURE 9.9: MOI AND MOD FORCE LEVELS AS OF AUGUST 2006
• FIGURE 9.10: IRAQ'S ESTIMATED MOI NATIONAL POLICE FORCE CAPABILITIES BEFORE THE SPRING 2006 REORGANIZATION
• FIGURE 9.11: IRAQ'S DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, 2006
• MAP 10.1: YEMEN
• FIGURE 10.1: YEMEN'S ARMS DELIVERIES BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 10.2: YEMEN'S NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS BY SUPPLIER, 1993–2004
• FIGURE 10.3: YEMENI ARMY'S FORCE STRUCTURE TRENDS, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 10.4: YEMENI AIR FORCE'S FORCE STRUCTURE, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 10.5: YEMENI AIR DEFENSE'S FORCE STRUCTURE TRENDS, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 10.6: YEMENI NAVY'S FORCE STRUCTURE TRENDS, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 10.7: YEMENI PARAMILITARY'S FORCE STRUCTURE TRENDS, 1990–2006
• FIGURE 10.8: YEMEN'S DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, 2006