Salvaging American Defense

The Challenge of Strategic Overstretch

Anthony H. Cordesman

• Publisher: Praeger
• Year: 2007
• Print ISBN: 9780275992576
• eBook ISBN: 9780313086083
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: International Relations
• Index: Politics & International Relations

From grassroots terrorism to the nuclear ambitions of hostile nations, the United States faces increasingly complex threats to its national security. Combating these threats continues to demand a reshaping of the nation's security structure, military forces and defense expenditures. In this study, Anthony Cordesman offers a detailed analysis of critical challenges affecting U.S. national security and how failures in adapting to these challenges have exacerbated the strains on available resources. He systematically identifies the most glaring obstacles to successful national security planning and proposes constructive and practical ways to proceed in the future. Cordesman focuses on ten specific challenges, and each is addressed within the context of the Iraq War, Afghan War, War on Terrorism, and the risk of conflict over the Taiwan Straits. Out of the lessons drawn from these experiences, he examines the future of international coalitions, asymmetric warfare, nation building, and stability operations, and concludes that perhaps the most pressing area for change is the need for accountability among civilian and military policymakers.

Table of contents

• CONTENTS
• FIGURES
• CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
• CHAPTER 2: CHALLENGE ONE: THE EXTENT TO WHICH STRATEGIC AND PLANNING PROBLEMS IN IRAQ AND IN MEETING OTHER U.S. STRATEGIC COMMITMENTS HAVE CREATED THE PRESENT STRAINS ON OUR FORCES
• CHAPTER 3: CHALLENGE TWO: DETERMINING THE LEVEL OF BURDEN THAT DEFENSE SHOULD PUT ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND FEDERAL SPENDING
• CHAPTER 4: CHALLENGE THREE: MEETING THE NEEDS OF THE U.S. ACTIVE AND RESERVE MILITARY
• CHAPTER 5: CHALLENGE FOUR: THE CHALLENGE OF MEASURING THE EXTENT TO WHICH WE HAVE THE WRONG FORCES VERSUS TOO FEW FORCES
• CHAPTER 6: CHALLENGE FIVE: DETERMINING WHAT KIND OF FORCE TRANSFORMATION IS AFFORDABLE AND NEEDED, AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT CAN OR CANNOT DEAL WITH THE OTHER ASPECTS OF OVERSTRETCH
• CHAPTER 7: CHALLENGE SIX: DEALING WITH THE LEGACY OF COLDWAR TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMS AND PAST EFFORTS AT FORCE TRANSFORMATION THAT ARE FUNDAMENTALLY UNAFFORDABLE
• CHAPTER 8: CHALLENGE SEVEN: CREATING AN EFFECTIVE INTERAGENCY CAPABILITY TO PERFORM NATIONAL SECURITY MISSIONS
• CHAPTER 9: CHALLENGE EIGHT: CREATING EFFECTIVE LOCAL GOVERNANCE AND FORCES
• CHAPTER 10: CHALLENGE NINE: DEALING WITH ALLIANCES, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND INTEROPERABILITY AT THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL LEVELS
• CHAPTER 11: CHALLENGE TEN: THE CHALLENGE OF RESPONSIBILITY
• FIGURE 1.1: COMPARATIVE MILITARY SPENDING IN 2003
• FIGURE 1.2: COMPARATIVE MILITARY STRENGTH OF MAJOR POWERS AND POWER BLOCS IN 2006
• FIGURE 1.3: REGIONAL BREAKDOWN OF POVERTY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (LESS THAN $2 DAILY INCOME)
• FIGURE 2.1: U.S. CASUALTIES IN THE IRAQ WAR: TOTAL KILLED VERSUS WOUNDED, MARCH 2003–SEPTEMBER 1, 2006
• FIGURE 2.2: U.S. CASUALTIES IN WAR: A HISTORICAL SUMMARY
• FIGURE 2.3: MEDICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT ON RETURNING U.S. FORCES
• FIGURE 2.4: GAO ESTIMATE OF INCREMENTAL AND UNANTICIPATED SPENDING ON IRAQ AND THE GLOBALWAR ON TERRORISM: 2001–2005
• FIGURE 2.5: CRS ESTIMATES OF INCREMENTAL AND UNANTICIPATED SPENDING ON IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE GLOBALWAR ON TERRORISM: FY2001–FY2006 SUPPLEMENTAL REQUEST
• FIGURE 2.6: CRS ESTIMATES OF CUMULATIVE COSTS OF INCREMENTAL AND UNANTICIPATED SPENDING ON IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM: FY2001–FY2006 SUPPLEMENTAL REQUEST
• FIGURE 2.7: CRS ESTIMATES OF AVERAGE MONTHLY COSTS OF INCREMENTAL AND UNANTICIPATED SPENDING ON IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM: FY2001–FY2006 SUPPLEMENTAL REQUEST
• FIGURE 2.8: THE CHANGING NATURE OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC POWER
• FIGURE 2.9: COMPARATIVE MILITARY STRENGTH OF U.S. FORCES, ALLIED POWER BLOCS, AND KEY CONTINGENCY FORCES IN 2006
• FIGURE 2.10: NORTHEAST ASIAN MILITARY FORCES IN 2006: PART 1
• FIGURE 2.11: COMPARATIVE GROWTH IN GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
• FIGURE 2.12: TRENDS IN WORLD PETROLEUM IMPORTS
• FIGURE 2.13: THE COST OF AMERICAN WARS
• FIGURE 2.14: NATIONAL DEFENSE SPENDING IN CONSTANT DOLLARS AND AS A PERCENT OF GNP AND TOTAL FEDERAL SPENDING IN PREVIOUS CONFLICTS AND CRISES (TOTAL FEDERAL OUTLAYS)
• FIGURE 3.1: MAJOR CATEGORIES IN THE U.S. DEFENSE BUDGET
• FIGURE 3.2: DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURES SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR: FY1990–FY2011
• FIGURE 3.3: WHEN YOU TRULY AND SINCERELY CANNOT OR WILL NOT PLAN: THE GROWING IMPACT OF BUDGET SUPPLEMENTALS (IN $U.S. BILLIONS)
• FIGURE 3.4: PATTERNS IN FUTURE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY SPENDING: FY2004–FY2016
• FIGURE 3.5: NATIONAL DEFENSE SPENDING AS A PERCENT OF GNP IN PREVIOUS CONFLICTS AND CRISES (TOTAL FEDERAL OUTLAYS)
• FIGURE 3.6: NATIONAL DEFENSE SPENDING AS A PERCENT OF GDP: 1939–2007
• FIGURE 3.7: SHIFT IN NATIONAL DEFENSE SPENDING AS A PERCENT OF GNP SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR
• FIGURE 3.8: NATIONAL DEFENSE SPENDING AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL FEDERAL BUDGET: 1939–2005
• FIGURE 3.9: CUTS IN NATIONAL DEFENSE SPENDING AS A PERCENT OF FEDERAL BUDGET SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR
• FIGURE 3.10: TRENDS IN DEFENSE MANPOWER (END STRENGTH IN MILLIONS)
• FIGURE 3.11: TRENDS IN MILITARY MANPOWER COSTS: FY2005–FY2011
• FIGURE 3.12: MILITARY MANPOWER COSTS SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR: FY1990–FY2011
• FIGURE 3.13: PROCUREMENT AND RDT&E SPENDING SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR: FY1990–FY2011
• FIGURE 3.14: OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE SPENDING SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR: FY1990–FY2011
• FIGURE 3.15: BUDGETING FOR A "WARLESS WORLD" IN AN ERA OF LONG WARSA FTER FY2007: TOTAL DOD BUDGET FY2001–FY2011
• FIGURE 3.16: U.S. NATIONAL DEFENSE SPENDING RELATIVE TO OTHER FEDERAL BUDGET COSTS: FY2000–FY2011
• FIGURE 3.17: THE AMERICAN THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES: U.S. NATIONAL DEFENSE SPENDING VERSUS MAJOR HEALTH AND MANDATORY PROGRAMS: FY2005–FY2011
• FIGURE 3.18: CBO PROJECTION OF U.S. NATIONAL DEFENSE OUTLAYS VERSUS OTHER ENTITLEMENTS AND MANDATORY PROGRAMS: FY2005–FY2016
• FIGURE 3.19: ENTITLEMENTS "HELL": CBO FY2006 ESTIMATE OF COST OF PROGRAMS AS A PERCENT OF GDP
• FIGURE 4.1: LESS MONEY FOR BOOTS ON THE GROUND AND MINDS ABOVE THEM: TOTAL DOD MANPOWER EXPENDITURES: FY2002–FY2011
• FIGURE 4.2: OVERALL CASUALTY PATTERNS MULTINATIONAL SECURITY TRANSITION COMMAND-IRAQ (MNSTC-I) ESTIMATE OF DAILY KILLED AND WOUNDED, JANUARY 2004–AUGUST 11, 2006
• FIGURE 4.3: OVERALL CASUALTY PATTERNS: COALITION AND IRAQI MILITARY FATALITIES, OCTOBER 2005–AUGUST 2006
• FIGURE 4.4: TRENDS IN TOTAL U.S. CASUALTIES BY MONTH, MARCH 2003–JULY 2006
• FIGURE 4.5: THE IMPACT OF THE IRAQ WAR ON RETURNING U.S. FORCES
• FIGURE 4.6: ARMY RECRUITING GOALS/ACHIEVEMENTS 1990 TO 2005
• FIGURE 4.7: DOD AND SERVICES END STRENGTHS FOR 2005
• FIGURE 4.8: PERCENT OF TOTAL ON MULTIPLE DEPLOYMENTS BY SERVICE
• FIGURE 4.9: RC MAN-DAYS, FY1986–FY2003
• FIGURE 4.10: ARMY AC AND RC DEPLOYMENTS, SEPTEMBER 2001 THROUGH AUGUST 2004
• FIGURE 4.11: MARINE CORPS AC AND RC DEPLOYMENTS, SEPTEMBER 2001 THROUGH AUGUST 2004
• FIGURE 4.12: RC INVENTORY USE BY SKILL, AS PERCENT OF TOTAL: FIRST AND SECOND IRAQ WARS
• FIGURE 4.13: ARMY RESTRUCTURING OF UNITS: FY2004–FY2009 (NUMBER OF UNITS INCREASED OR DECREASED DURING PERIOD)
• FIGURE 4.14: ARMY NATIONAL GUARD MODULAR CONVERSIONS, FY2006–FY2010
• FIGURE 4.15: INCREASES IN MAJOR DOD FUNDING AREAS
• FIGURE 4.16: DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE SPENDING, 2001–2005
• FIGURE 4.17: RISING HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURES ON MILITARY PERSONNEL, FY2005–FY2011
• FIGURE 4.18: DEPLOYMENT OF ACTIVE-DUTY U.S. SOLDIERS TO IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN AS OF OCTOBER 2006
• FIGURE 5.1: EVOLVING U.S. FORCE PLANS
• FIGURE 5.2: EVOLVING U.S. FORCE PLANS
• FIGURE 5.3: U.S. MILITARY FORCES IN SELECTED FISCAL YEARS, 1989–2005
• FIGURE 5.4: DEFENSE SPENDING BY MILITARY SERVICE SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR: FY1990–FY2010
• FIGURE 5.5: DEFENSE SPENDING BY MILITARY SERVICE SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR: FY1990–FY2010
• FIGURE 5.6: DEFENSE SPENDING BY MAJOR PROGRAM CATEGORY SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR: FY1990–FY2010
• FIGURE 5.7: TRENDS IN MILITARY END STRENGTH: FY2004–FY2007
• FIGURE 5.8: DOD INCREMENTAL COSTS OF PEACEKEEPING AND SECURITY CONTINGENCY OPERATIONS, FY1991–FY2005
• FIGURE 7.1: DANCING TO THE RIGHT: PROJECTED DEFENSE PROCUREMENT AND RDT&E EXPENDITURES, FY2001–FY2011
• FIGURE 7.2: PROCURING DEFENSE TO DEATH: THE WONDERFUL WORLD OF "TRANSFORMATIONAL" COST ESCALATION, 2001–2005
• FIGURE 7.3: SHORT-TERM (2001 OR LATER) COST ESCALATION AS OF JULY 2005
• FIGURE 7.4: EXAMPLES OF KEY PROGRAM MANAGEMENT FAILURES
• FIGURE 7.5: QUANTITY AND PROGRAM ACQUISITION UNIT COST OF THE F-22A
• FIGURE 7.6: PLANNED MODERNIZATION ENHANCEMENTS FOR THE F-22A PROGRAM
• FIGURE 7.7: PROJECTED LCS COST ESCALATION BY YEAR
• FIGURE 7.8: DESCRIPTION OF ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT MODELS
• FIGURE 7.9: THE AMPHIBIOUS AND MARITIME PREPOSITIONING FORCES IN 2035 UNDER ALTERNATIVE FORCE STRUCTURES
• FIGURE 8.1: BASELINE ESTIMATES OF TOTAL HOMELAND SECURITY SPENDING BY AGENCY
• FIGURE 8.2: PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND KEY ASSETS FUNDING BY AGENCY
• FIGURE 8.3: PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND KEY ASSETS FUNDING BY AGENCY
• FIGURE 8.4: EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE FUNDING BY AGENCY
• FIGURE 10.1: NORTHEAST ASIAN MILITARY MANPOWER IN KEY POWERS: 2006
• FIGURE 10.2: NORTHEAST ASIAN MODERN MAIN BATTLE TANKS (MBTS) VERSUS TOTAL HOLDINGS: 2006
• FIGURE 10.3: NORTHEAST ASIAN ARMORED FIGHTING VEHICLES: 2006
• FIGURE 10.4: NORTHEAST ASIAN ARTILLERY WEAPONS IN KEY POWERS: 2006
• FIGURE 10.5: NORTHEAST ASIAN FIXED- AND ROTARY-WING COMBAT AIRCRAFT: 2006
• FIGURE 10.6: NORTHEAST ASIAN FIXED-WING COMBAT AIRCRAFT: 2006
• FIGURE 10.7: NORTHEAST ASIAN NAVAL COMBAT SHIPS: 2006