Hinge Points

An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program

Siegfried S. Hecker, Elliot A. Serbin

• Publisher: Stanford University Press
• Year: 2023
• Print ISBN: 9781503634459
• eBook ISBN: 9781503634473
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Arms Control
• Index: Politics & International Relations

North Korea remains a puzzle to Americans. How did this country—one of the most isolated in the world and in the policy cross hairs of every U.S. administration during the past 30 years—progress from zero nuclear weapons in 2001 to a threatening arsenal of perhaps 50 such weapons in 2021?

Hinge Points brings readers literally inside the North Korean nuclear program, joining Siegfried Hecker to see what he saw and hear what he heard in his visits to North Korea from 2004 to 2010. Hecker goes beyond the technical details—described in plain English from his on-the-ground experience at the North's nuclear center at Yongbyon—to put the nuclear program exactly where it belongs, in the context of decades of fateful foreign policy decisions in Pyongyang and Washington.

Describing these decisions as "hinge points," he traces the consequences of opportunities missed by both sides. The result has been that successive U.S. administrations have been unable to prevent the North, with the weakest of hands, from becoming one of only three countries in the world that might target the United States with nuclear weapons. Hecker's unique ability to marry the technical with the diplomatic is well informed by his interactions with North Korean and U.S. officials over many years, while his years of working with Russian, Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani nuclear officials have given him an unmatched breadth of experience from which to view and interpret the thinking and perspective of the North Koreans.

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title Page
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Contents
• Preface
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Nuclear Background
• 3. The State of Play Prior to January 2004
• 4. “Would You Like to See Our Product?”
• 5. Disastrous Consequences of Bolton’s Hammer
• 6. Back to North Korea: “No LWR Till Pigs Fly”
• 7. Kim Jong Il: Buying Time
• 8. “Tell America It Worked. DPRK Is Filled with Pride”
• 9. 2007: Back to the Negotiating Table
• 10. 2007 and 2008 Visits: Back to Yongbyon to Confirm Disablement
• 11. 2008: Almost There, but It All Falls Apart
• Figures
• 12. 2009 Visit: “You Don’t Know How Bad It Will Get”
• 13. 2009 and 2010: Clenching the Fist, Not Reaching for Obama’s Outstretched Hand
• 14. 2010 Visit: “Tomorrow, You Will Have a Bigger Surprise”
• 15. November 2010 to April 2012: Deal Blows Up, Along with Rocket
• 16. “Does the U.S. Blow This Up Over One Stupid Rocket Launch?”
• 17. From Strategic Patience to Benign Neglect
• 18. The “Fire and Fury” of 2017
• 19. From the Olympics to Singapore
• 20. The Train Wreck in Hanoi
• 21. Closing Observations: Hinge Points and Missteps
• Epilogue
• Acknowledgments
• Index
• About the Authors