Improving Homeland Security Decisions

Ali E. Abbas, Milind Tambe, Detlof von Winterfeldt

• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Year: 2017
• Print ISBN:
  9781107161887
• eBook ISBN:
  9781108216654
• Topic: Mathematics
• Subtopic: Linear & Nonlinear Programming
• Index: Mathematics

What are the risks of terrorism and what are their consequences and economic impacts? Are we safer from terrorism today than before 9/11? Does the government spend our homeland security funds well? These questions motivated a twelve-year research program of the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at the University of Southern California, funded by the Department of Homeland Security. This book showcases some of the most important results of this research and offers key insights on how to address the most important security problems of our time. Written for homeland security researchers and practitioners, this book covers a wide range of methodologies and real-world examples of how to reduce terrorism risks, increase the efficient use of homeland security resources, and thereby make better decisions overall.

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half-title
• Title page
• Copyright information
• Table of contents
• List of contributors
• 1 Improving Homeland Security Decisions
• 2 Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk
• 3 Integrating Stakeholder Values into Strategic Planning through Comparative Risk Analysis
• 4 Validating Terrorism Risk Assessment Models – Lessons Learned from 11 Models
• 5 Coping with Uncertainty in Adversarial Risk Analysis
• 6 A Risk and Economic Analysis of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach
• 7 Regional Transportation and Supply Chain Modeling for Large-Scale Emergencies
• 8 Economic Consequences of Terrorism and Natural Disasters: The Computable General Equilibrium Approach
• 9 Economic Resilience to Terrorism and Natural Hazards
• 10 The Temporal Regional Economic Impacts of a Hurricane Disaster on Oil Refinery Operations: A FlexNIEMO Approach
• 11 Risk-Informed Benefit-Cost Analysis
• 12 Enhancing Post-disaster Economic Resilience: Public-Private Partnership for Insuring Terrorism
• 13 Economic Impacts of Changes in Wait Times at U.S. Ports of Entry
• 14 Organizational Decision Processes
• 15 A Value Model for Evaluating Homeland Security Decisions
• 16 Identifying, Structuring, and Comparing the Objectives of Al Qaeda and ISIL
• 17 Multi-objective Decision Making: Expected Utility vs. Some Widely Used (and Flawed) Methods
• 18 Achieving Multiple Objectives with Limited Resources: Using Utility Theory and Control Theory
• 19 Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism
• 20 Decision Making for Bioterror Preparedness: Examples from Smallpox Vaccination Policy
• 21 Stackelberg Security Games (SSG) Basics and Application Overview
• 22 Basic Solution Concepts and Algorithms for Stackelberg Security Games
• 23 Mixed-Integer Optimization Methods for Solving Stackelberg Security Games
• 24 Methods for Addressing the Unpredictable Real-World Element in Security
• 25 Learning to Play Stackelberg Security Games
• 26 Evaluating Deployed Decision Support Systems for Security: Challenges, Analysis, and Approaches
• 27 Homeland Security Resource Allocation Games: Considering Partially Strategic Attackers and Equity
• 28 Decision Analysis by Proxy for Adaptive Adversaries
• 29 Asymmetric Prescriptive/Descriptive Game Theory for Counterterrorism
• 30 Near-Misses and Decision Making Under Uncertainty in the Context of Cybersecurity
• Index