The Polls Weren't Wrong
eBook - ePub

The Polls Weren't Wrong

  1. 352 pages
  2. English
  3. ePUB (mobile friendly)
  4. Available on iOS & Android
eBook - ePub

The Polls Weren't Wrong

About this book

Interpreting poll data as a prediction of election outcomes is a practice as old as the field, rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of what poll data means.

By first understanding how polls work at a fundamental level, this book gives readers the ability to discern flaws in the current methods. Then, through specific political examples from both the United States and the United Kingdom, it is shown how polls famously derided as "wrong" were, in fact, accurate. While polls are not always accurate, the reasons we can and can't (rightly) call them "wrong" are explained in this book.

This book will equip readers with the tools to navigate the mismatch of expectations. It is not intended to replace more technical applications of statistics but is accessible to anyone interested in learning more about how poll data should be understood, compared to how it's currently misunderstood.

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Yes, you can access The Polls Weren't Wrong by Carl Allen in PDF and/or ePUB format, as well as other popular books in Mathematics & Probability & Statistics. We have over one million books available in our catalogue for you to explore.

Information

Publisher
Chapman and Hall/CRC
Year
2024
Print ISBN
9781032483023
eBook ISBN
9781040148761
Edition
1
Topic
Mathematics
Subtopic
Probability & Statistics
Index
Mathematics

Table of contents

  1. Cover Page
  2. Half-Title Page
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright Page
  5. Contents
  6. Preface
  7. 1. Public Consumption of Data: Some Historical Perspective
  8. 2. Polls
  9. 3. What Makes a Poll “Wrong” Part 1
  10. 4. Introducing: Ideal Polls
  11. 5. Throw It in the Average
  12. 6. What Makes a Poll “Wrong” Part 2
  13. 7. Introducing: Simultaneous Census, Present Polls, and Plan Polls
  14. 8. What's for Lunch?
  15. 9. The Fallacy of Margin (Spread) Analysis
  16. 10. The Fallacy of Proportion Analysis
  17. 11. Instrument Error: Weighted Results and Literal Weight
  18. 12. What's (Actually) for Lunch?
  19. 13. Real Polls + Bad Math = Fake Errors
  20. 14. My Simultaneous Census
  21. 15. Introducing: Adjusted Poll Values
  22. 16. Compensating Errors and Poll Masking
  23. 17. Welcome to Mintucky
  24. 18. Mintucky Results
  25. 19. Mintucky Poll Error and Jacob Bernoulli
  26. 20. The Point Spread Problem
  27. 21. Remembering Nick Panagakis (1937–2018)
  28. 22. Finding the Base of Support
  29. 23. Trump-Clinton 2016
  30. 24. The Law of 50% + 1
  31. 25. The Clintons’ Lessons
  32. 26. Trump-Clinton-Third Party 2016
  33. 27. We* Don’t Talk About Utah
  34. 28. Informing a Prediction
  35. 29. One Number Can Tell You a Lot
  36. 30. Don’t Call It a “Rule” and How to Report Polls
  37. 31. UK Elections and Brexit
  38. 32. The Polls Weren’t Wrong About Brexit
  39. 33. UK General Election Polls: Not Wrong Either
  40. 34. The Future, and “Try It”
  41. Index