The Keys to Downing Street

a guide to forecasting the political future

Tom Fisher

• Publisher: The Conrad Press
• Year: 2024
• eBook ISBN: 9781839787201
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Politics
• Index: Politics & International Relations

'The Keys to Downing Street' is an utterly unique guide to British General Elections, offering a refreshingly penetrating insight into how our democracy works.

The book is both a history book, graphically bringing to life the political history of the United Kingdom since 1945, and a guide to forecasting our political future. It is an adaptation of Professor Alan Lichtman's brilliant American Presidential forecasting method to the UK political system. Lichtman's 'Keys' have correctly forecast every US Presidential election since 1984, and now, with his kind permission, the wisdom of his methodology is now shedding light on the political process this side of the pond.

Although the unexpected return of Nigel Farage to the forefront of British politics during the 2024 campaign, came too late to be incorporated into the forecast for the 2024 election, the author did publicise an updated forecast in the days before the poll. He predicted a Labour majority of 170 – they actually got one of 174!

Table of contents

• Introduction
• Chapter one
• Chapter two
• Chapter three
• Chapter four
• Chapter five 1979-1997:
• Chapter six
• Chapter seven
• Chapter eight:
• Chapter nine:
• Chapter ten:
• The Lessons of the Keys