eBook - PDF

Modelling and forecasting monthly petroleum prices of Ghana using subset ARIMA models

Name: Modelling and forecasting monthly petroleum prices of Ghana using subset ARIMA models
ISBN: 9783656483625

Francis Okyere,

110 pages
English
PDF
Available on iOS & Android

eBook - PDF

Modelling and forecasting monthly petroleum prices of Ghana using subset ARIMA models

Francis Okyere,

About this book

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Economics - Statistics and Methods, grade: none, language: English, abstract: The study is an attempt to build a univariate Time Series Model to forecast monthly petroleum prices for 2010/2011, from January 1990 to September 2010, since national petroleum agency (NPA) is failing to plan for fluctuation of petroleum prices. The data was source from the website of Bank of Ghana. The study employs Box-Jenkins methodology of building Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to achieve various objectives. Different selected models were tested by Residual plots of Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation and Ljung Box Q statistic to ensure adequacy of results. The results reveal that demand and supply, crudel oil prices, gasoline, natural disasters and government regulations are some of factors that can influence fuel prices and ARIMA(1, 1, 5)×(1, 0, 1)11 is the best model for forecast. The future values expose that during the months to come; petroleum prices are going to experience an insignificant increase. In light of the forecast, I know Ghana will ascertain a healthy state of economy.

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Yes, you can access Modelling and forecasting monthly petroleum prices of Ghana using subset ARIMA models by Francis Okyere in PDF and/or ePUB format, as well as other popular books in Economics & Statistics for Business & Economics. We have over one million books available in our catalogue for you to explore.