Chapter One
THE AGE OF DISRUPTION
SEISMIC CHANGE, ENORMOUS SHIFTS, AND SWEEPING UPHEAVALS: WELCOME TO TODAY’S BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT!
“Failure isn’t fatal. But failure to change might be.”
—John Wooden
Food Fights and Icebergs
Perhaps you’ve heard recently how the trillion-dollar US food industry is at a critical tipping point. More and more shoppers are opting for fresh, organic choices, and this is costing packaged food companies serious market share. In fact, the top twenty-five US food and beverage companies have lost more than $18 billion in value since 2009. And that trend is picking up steam.
An Edward Jones analyst suggested that the major food labels’ fundamental existence is being challenged. The big questions in the food industry are these: can industry leaders reinvent fast enough to right the ship? And can they transition from being organizations that are decelerating to ones that are back on track?
Much of this depends on the eventual outcome of a powerful metaphor we discovered while researching this subject. A respected industry analyst offered this: “I would think of these big food companies like melting icebergs. Every year they become a little less relevant.”
Wow. Melting icebergs.
With that, let’s begin by asking four “Confront the Brutal Facts” questions to get the conversation started.
1.Melt-Rate: Is your professional or organizational iceberg melting? If so, at what rate? And why?
2.Relevance Trend: Are you and the organization you lead increasing in relevance in the eyes of customers and shareholders or decreasing in relevance? Why, or why not?
3.Adding Value: Do you continually push yourself and your organization to add greater value to customers and stakeholders? Why, or why not?
4.Internal vs. External Change: Is your current and projected rate of internal change greater than the current and projected speed of external change? Why, or why not?
How would you answer these questions for yourself and for the organization that you lead?
The Age of Disruption
We’ve coined the term Age of Disruption to describe the global business environment we currently work in. The term seems apt, because most of the changes that come our way are disruptive in nature. They disorient and disrupt the hard-earned flow state that many of us have settled into individually and organizationally.
We’ve all experienced that awkward feeling when colleagues begin chatting about a new technology that they love but we’ve never heard of. Suddenly, you get a queasy feeling that you are falling behind in an ever-changing world.
Add to that the fact that the total amount of information created in 2015 surpassed the zettabyte mark—a 1 with twenty-one 0s after it—and the prospect of staying current and relevant individually and organizationally begins to feel overwhelming.
Technology writer Michael S. Malone notes: “The higher level of anarchy we are living in will be exciting, but it will also be painful. Entire industries will die overnight, laying off thousands, while others will just as suddenly appear, hungry for employees. Continuity and predictability will be the rarest of commodities.”
Recent research suggests that graduates leaving college today can expect to have at least sixteen different career changes during their work life.
Era of the Free Agent
Some talent futurists are predicting that nearly thirty-three percent of today’s employees will eventually be working “on demand.” This refers to the increasing preference of companies to hire freelancers for short-term contracts when the need arises, versus keeping fulltime staff on the payroll.
It seems the W-2 is making room for the rise of the 1099.
We like how Susan Ascher, a professional recruiter from New Jersey, boils it down to a simple thought when talking about the age of the 1099: “The long-standing social contract between companies and workers has been officially broken. A permanent job is now a temporary job disguised with benefits.”
How Did We Get Here?
Our research suggests it was in 1981 that the world became aware that the global economy was beginning to transition to something never experienced before.
In 1981 Toyota, Honda, and Datsun (the Japanese Big Three) sold more cars in the United States than analysts had predicted; it was also the first year they sold their cars from their own dealerships. This was a game-changing event on a global scale that had never been seen before by global leaders and professionals.
Industry observers intuitively knew that something monumental was happening. But even then, no one predicted this global shockwave would soon be followed up by many others. Global competition had literally washed up on the shores of the US West Coast and had taken everyone by storm.
Detroit responded in disappointing ways. They continued to cling to their worldview that Japanese products were inferior, faulty, and of no threat. Detroit leaders could not fathom the idea that their economic moat could be penetrated by the Japanese. And this was despite front-page newspaper headlines that proclaimed such things as
100,000 Datsuns Arrive on Docks in Los Angeles. Inventory Sold in 90 Days!
In hindsight, it is clear that the introduction of global competition in the form of Japanese automobiles was the “shot fired across the bow” of the US business sector. It was also a loud signal to the global business environment that change was coming. The days of US businesses running on autopilot without robust competition, yet still making healthy profits, were on their way out.
The Global Shockwave 20
We began our historical research on the Age of Disruption by searching for and uncovering key events in the past that seemed to have a profound effect on today’s business ecosystem.
We started our research in the post-war decade (1946) and marched forward to 2015. In total, we identified twenty powerful global events that occurred during these seven decades that seemed to truly rattle the birdcage. We named these events Global Shockwaves because of their powerful ability to shock and disrupt the status quo.
A shockwave is defined as “a widespread feeling of shock caused by an unexpected event.”
When you view these global shockwaves from a strategic level, and analyze the sequence of their arrival, a clear and compelling picture develops as to why we operate today in such turbulent times.
The following timeline depicts the global shockwaves in order of occurrence. We also note the year that the global shockwave’s ripple effect had the biggest effect on the psyche of global organizations and the leaders that led them. In some cases, the year noted is not when the actual shockwave was initially felt.
We have categorized these global shockwaves into five types.
•Technology: Information and computing technologies.
•Management theory: New ways to think about managing people, manufacturing products, and creating greater revenues, lower costs, and increased speed.
•Economic: Wall Street–influenced fears, central banking actions, market fluctuations, and global supply and demand.
•Global competition: Exporting or importing goods on a global scale.
•Geo-Political: Tensions between nations caused by geographic, economic, religious, or political disputes.
THE GLOBAL SHOCKWAVE 20
Age of Disruption Global Shockwave Timeline
| Biggest Effect | Global Shockwave | Category |
| 1981 | Rise of Global Competition | Global Competition |
| 1989 | Introduction of User-Friendly Hardware/Software | Technology |
| 1991 | Fall of Soviet Union | Geo-Political |
| 1991 | Thought Leaders Challenge Status Quo | Management Theory |
| 1993 | Creation of European Union | Geo-Political |
| 1995 | Reengineering of Business Processes | Management Theory |
| 1995 | Interconnected Global Telecommunications | Technology |
| 1995 | PCs Become Ubiquitous | Technology |
| 1996 | Commercialization of World Wide Web | Technology |
| 1997 | Advent of E-Commerce | Technology |
| 1999 | Downsizing and Layoffs | Economic |
| 2001 | Intensification of Terrorism | Geo-Political |
| 2004 | Implementation of Outsourcing and Offshoring | Management Theory |
| 2006 | Mainstreaming of Smartphones | Technology |
| 2007 | Dawn of Social Media | Technology |
| 2008 | Onset of Global Recession | Economic |
| 2010 | Standardization of Virtual Workforce | Management Theory |
| 2011 | Introduction of Arab Spring | Geo-Political |
| 2012 | Escalation of Cloud Computing | Technology |
| 2015 | Collapse of Crude Oil Prices | Economic |
It is interesting to note that forty percent of all glo...