
Minding the Weather
How Expert Forecasters Think
- English
- ePUB (mobile friendly)
- Available on iOS & Android
Minding the Weather
How Expert Forecasters Think
About this book
This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance.
The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.
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Information
Table of contents
- Cover
- Title page
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Table of Contents
- About the Authors
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1âIntroduction
- 2âWhat Is the Forecasting Workspace Like?
- 3âHow Do People Come to Be Forecasters?
- 4âHow Do Forecasters Describe How They Reason?
- 5âHow Well Do Forecasters (and Forecasts) Perform?
- 6âWhat Characterizes Expertise?
- 7âHow Do Forecasters Get to Be Expert Forecasters?
- 8âWhat Does Research on Forecaster Knowledge Tell Us?
- 9âWhat Does Research on Forecaster Perception Tell Us?
- 10âWhat Does Research on Forecaster Reasoning Tell Us?
- 11âCan a Machine Imitate the Human?
- 12âCan a Machine Replace the Human?
- 13âForecasterâComputer Interdependence
- 14âConclusions and Prospects
- Appendix A: List of Acronyms
- Appendix B: Extended Narratives of Two Cases of Forecasting Severe Weather
- Appendix C: Example Synoptic Analyses of GOES Visible Images
- Appendix D: A Case Study in HumanâMachine Interdependence
- Appendix E: References on Visualization Design and Display Technology
- References
- Index
- Colour Plates