Precautionary Principle

A Critical Appraisal

Indur M. Goklany

• Publisher: Cato Institute
• Year: 2001
• Print ISBN: 9781933995854
• eBook ISBN: 9781933995854
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Environment & Energy Policy
• Index: Politics & International Relations

The "precautionary principle" -- the environmental version of the admonition first, do no harm -- is now enshrined in numerous international environmental agreements including treaties addressing global warming, biological diversity, and various pollutants. Some environmentalists have invoked this principle to justify policies to control, if not ban, any technology that cannot be proven to cause no harm. In this innovative book, Goklany shows that the current use of the precautionary principle to justify such policies is flawed and could be counterproductive because it ignores the possible calamities those very policies might simultaneously create or prolong.

The precautionary principle, unfortunately, does not provide any method of resolving such dilemmas, which are commonplace in the field of environmental policy. To address that problem, Goklany develops a framework consistent with the precautionary principle to resolve such dilemmas. That framework ranks potential threats to the environment on the basis of their nature, magnitude, immediacy, uncertainty, persistence, and the extent to which they can be alleviated. Applying that framework to three contentious environmental policy issues facing humanity and the globe -- DDT, bioengineered crops, and global warming -- Goklany shows that some popular policy prescriptions, despite good intentions, are in fact likely to do more harm than good.

1. Escaping Goblins, Only to Be Captured
by Wolves?

“What shall we do, what shall we do!” he cried. “Escaping goblins to be caught by wolves!”

—J. R. R. Tolkien, The Hobbit, p. 98

So what do we do if we come to a fork in the road and one way leads through territory inhabited by goblins and the other through country infested by wolves? Which road should we take? Does it even matter if we take one road and not the other?

Policymakers in the environmental and public health arena often face such dilemmas. DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) is a classic case. On one hand, this much-reviled chemical is a proven, cheap, and effective method of reducing malaria, a disease that annually afflicts 300 million people and claims over a million lives worldwide (WHO 2000). Over the years, DDT has saved millions of lives not only in Asia and Africa but also in Europe and the Americas. But DDT has also been implicated in the decline of a number of raptors such as the bald eagle and the peregrine falcon. It has been found in various avian eggshells, in the tissues of fish, and in mothers’ milk. Some suspect it plays a role in advancing various human cancers and other disorders (Roberts 1999, Attaran et al. 2000, Tren and Bate 2001).

So what should be the policy toward DDT? Should it be banned because of its effects on birds and its hypothesized adverse public health effects? Should its use be encouraged because of its proven ability to combat malaria, one of nature’s dread diseases? Or should different policies prevail in different areas, depending on whether those areas are plagued by malaria or host species that might be threatened by DDT?

Today’s environmentalists have increasingly invoked the precautionary principle to solve such policy dilemmas. This principle is, essentially, a restatement of a popular rendition of the Hippocratic oath, namely, “first do no harm.” Its advocates would have it become a cornerstone for developing policies related to the environment and public health (e.g., Raffensperger and Tickner 1999: 1, 22, 334).

Based on the precautionary principle, many environmentalists have supported a global ban on DDT, arguing that, by endangering various avian species, it would harm the environment and that it might possibly contribute to various health problems in human beings. But might not such a ban itself harm public health and result in a higher death toll by postponing, if not foregoing, the conquest of malaria in several developing countries? How do we resolve this dilemma?

This book concerns itself with how the precautionary principle could be used to solve various public health and environmental dilemmas, and to ensure that policies to address them do not ultimately cause more harm than good. In this context, it will, as case examples, apply the principle to various policies related to DDT, genetically modified crops, and global warming.

The Precautionary Principle

A popular and reasonably good definition of the precautionary principle can be found in the so-called Wingspread Declaration (Raffensperger and Tickner 1999: 8):

When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not established scientifically.

In this context the proponent of the activity, rather than the public, should bear the burden of proof.

Many people—environmentalists and others—interpret this principle to imply that if there are any doubts about the safety of a technology, that technology ought to be severely restricted if not banned, unless it can be proven to be absolutely safe (Tickner 1999: 168–169; see, e.g., Stone 2001). In this vein, Greenpeace’s Leggett stated, “The modus operandi we would like to see is: ‘Do not emit a substance unless you have proof it will do no harm to the environment’” (Leggett 1990: 459; see also Jordan and O’Riordan 1999: 25). Such “absolutist” interpretations capture well the skepticism with which many environmentalists regard technology in general (see, e.g., Goklany 1996).

Others, noting that there can never be absolute certainty or absolute safety, argue that it is irrational to apply the precautionary principle to policymaking in a world where resources—fiscal and human—are scarce, and that the principle might be counterproductive because it would reduce technological progress toward risk reduction (e.g., Cross 1996, Morris 2000, Stone 2001). Technological progress, the critics argue, is the time-tested method for reducing society’s vulnerability to all kinds of adversity (Goklany 1992, 1995a, 2000a). For instance, until this century, the major health risks to humanity included inadequate supplies of food; poor access to safe water and sanitation; and insufficient knowledge of basic hygiene, the germ theory, and infectious and vector-borne diseases. Today, because of technological progress in the last century and a half, those risks have been significantly reduced in the developing—and virtually eliminated in the developed—world (Goklany 1999a, 2001a). As a result, life expectancy, perhaps the single most critical indicator of human well-being, has more than doubled in that period.

Instead of joining the debate regarding the rationality of the precautionary principle and taking sides, I will assume that it is indeed a viable approach to policymaking. And although one must agree with law professor Christopher Stone (2001: 24) that the precautionary principle is not “entrenched in customary law,” variations of it can be found in at least 14 international environmental declarations, agreements, and conventions (Stone 2001: note 1). In this book, I take the principle as given and use it to evaluate and develop policies with respect to the specific environmental issues of DDT, genetically modified crops, and global warming.

Origins of the Principle

While the eminent legal scholar Frank Cross claims that the phrase “precautionary principle” was coined by German bureaucrats in 1965, other scholars (Morris 2000) claim that it derives from the 1970s and the German articulation of Vorsorgeprinzip, which can be translated as the “precaution” or “foresight” principle. But its roots go deeper. They extend at least to the very first mother who admonished her child that it is “better to be safe than sorry” (see, e.g., Cross 1996, Adler 2000).

The spirit of the precautionary principle can be found in several U.S. laws enacted before the principle acquired international fame, if not its name. The Delaney Clause, which was included in Section 409 of the U.S. Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act of 1958, for instance, essentially outlawed any food additive that was found to induce cancer in real life or in laboratory tests on animals (Vogt 1995), regardless of the magnitude of the dose. This is perhaps the apotheosis of the absolutist version of the precautionary principle. It can also be argued that the 1970 Clean Air Act effectively operationalized the absolutist version of the precautionary principle. The Act required not only that primary (that is, public health–related) National Ambient Air Quality Standards be established without consideration of social or economic costs (Cross 1996: 856), but also that all states meet the standards by a date certain, regardless of the difficulties or costs of meeting standards.

Various versions of the precautionary principle started to appear in international environmental declarations and agreements in the 1980s. Championed by environmentalists and European governments eager to garnish their green stripes, the principle started appearing in one environmental forum after another. It seems to have made its international debut in 1982 in the United Nations World Charter for Nature, which stated that when “potential adverse effects [of activities likely to pose significant risks to nature] are not fully understood, the activities should not proceed” (Cross 1996, Stone 2001). In 1987 it appeared in the Second International Conference on the Protection of the North Sea (e.g., Morris 2000: 3). By the late 1980s and early 1990s, discussions of the precautionary principle or precautionary approach were a staple of international environmental discussions. In 1990 alone, “precautionary” language was, for instance, included in the Final Declaration of the Third International Conference on the Protection of the North Sea (in March), the Bergen Ministerial Declaration at a Conference on Sustainable Development of the U.N. Economic Conference for Europe (in May), and the Second World Climate Conference (in December) (Morris 2000: 4–5; Raffensperger and Tickner 1999: 356–61).

Variations on the Precautionary Theme

By the time the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) met in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the precautionary principle was well-nigh ubiquitous. At UNCED, somewhat different versions of it were incorporated in the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Principle 15 of the Rio Declaration (UN 1992: 10) proclaimed, for instance,

In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.

The first sentence of this version, by implying that states may constrain their application “according to their capabilities” and that it “shall be widely applied” (italics are mine), seems to envision some flexibility and a less-than-absolutist application of the principle. The next sentence is even more tentative. It may be argued that its first part is essentially vacuous, since we can almost never have “full scientific certainty” (Cross 1996: note 10), and therefore—like it or not—actions are almost invariably taken “in the absence of full scientific certainty.” This sentence does not require any specific type of action on the part of a state, and it implies that actions that are not “cost-effective” need not be taken. Thus, Principle 15 of the Rio Declaration is not as sweeping as either the Wingspread Declaration or the absolutist interpretation of the precautionary principle requiring limits on any technology unless proven absolutely safe.

Principle 15 is echoed in the Preamble of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) with the exception that it eschews any reference to cost-effectiveness. The precautionary principle included in that Convention (Glowka et al. 1994: 11) states as follows:

That it is vital to anticipate, prevent and attack the causes of significant reduction or loss of biological diversity at source,. . .

Where there is a threat of significant reduction or loss of biological diversity, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to avoid or minimize such a threat.

However, although lack of full scientific certainty may not be used to postpone measures, this version does not preclude rejecting actions that might be economically inefficient (or not cost-effective).

The version of the precautionary principle articulated in Article 3.3 of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), although more forthright, is much less absolutist. Like to the CBD version, it commences by explicitly stating that “the Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects” (UNFCCC 1992). Notably it uses “should” rather than “must.” It is similar in a number of other ways to Principle 15, with one critical difference. Specifically, Article 3.3 goes on to state as follows:

Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost. To achieve this, such policies and measures should take into account different socio/economic contexts, be comprehensive, cover all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases and adaptation, and comprise all economic sectors.

This version, unlike the other versions encountered previously, specifies that climate change policies and measures “should” essentially be based on global cost-benefit analyses. However, many commentators have—conveniently or otherwise—overlooked this requirement in the UNFCCC for the design of climate change related policies (IPCC 1996a: 5; Goklany 2000b). But if, and only if, one overlooks this inconvenient detail does the UNFCCC seem consistent with the absolutist interpretation of the Wingspread Declaration.

Out of these various versions of the precautionary principle eventually emerged, in January 2000, the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity, which repeatedly uses the precautionary principle as a basis for decisionmaking and risk assessment with respect to the transboundary transfer (and associated handling and use) of genetically modified organisms that may have adverse effects on the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity (CBD 2000). Rightly or wrongly, as Frances Smith (2000) has noted, the Cartagena Protocol is seen as a major victory for the more absolutist version of the precautionary principle and for its advocates.

A Double-Edged Sword

In keeping with its origins in technological skepticism, the precautionary principle has also been increasingly invoked as justification, among other things, for international controls, if not outright bans, on various technologies, which—despite providing substantial benefits to humanity and, in some cases, to certain aspects of the environment—could also worsen other aspects of the environment or public health (Goklany 2000c). In addition to DDT, other technologies against which the principle has been invoked are fossil fuel combustion, on which much of the world’s current prosperity and human well-being are based but which could help cause catastrophic global warming (Goklany 1999a, 2001a), and genetically modified crops, which promise to reduce global hunger and malnutrition while making agriculture more environmentally sustainable but which have also raised the specter of “frankenfoods” and “superweeds” (FOE 1999a; Goklany 2000c, 2001b).

The justifications for these policies have something more than the precautionary principle in common: They also share a common flaw. Each of these justifications takes credit for the public health and environmental risks that might be reduced by implementing the policy, but they overlook those public health and environmental risks that the policy itself might generate or prolong. As a result, these policy prescriptions could be worse for humanity and the environment than the underlying diseases they seek to redress (Cross 1996, Adler 2000, Comstock 2000, Goklany 2000c, Goklany et al. 2001). In essence, we might escape the goblins but be crushed by the jaws of wolves.

A one-sided application of the precautionary principle leads to such a predicament because the principle itself provides no guidance on its application in situations where an action (such as a ban on GM crops) could simultaneously lead to uncertain benefits and uncertain harms (Goklany 2000d). In this regard, the principle is reminiscent of Yogi Berra’s admonition, “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”

So what do we do to ensure that in avoiding goblins we do not fall prey to wolves?

It is important to ensure that precautionary policies are not counterproductive for public health and the environment. In the following section, I will develop a framework for applying the precautionary principle in situations in which outcomes might be ambiguous because their benefits might be partly or wholly offset by their harms. The framework is developed with reference to the version of the precautionary principle articulated by the Wingspread Declaration. This framework is applied in subsequent chapters to evaluate whether various environmental policies touted as precautionary would in fact reduce overall risks to public health and the environment. And if they do not, this book presents alternative policies that, indeed, will.

In Chapter 2, I use the framework to evaluate whether a worldwide ban on DDT would, in fact, improve public health and reduce environmental risks worldwide. That chapter also addresses whether the precautionary principle demands a one-size-fits-all approach toward DDT, with identical requirements for developed and developing countries, and whether a DDT phase-out by a date certain is necessarily consistent with the principle. In Chapter 2, I also discuss whether, given the potential benefits of using DDT indoors for public health in malaria-prone developing countries, and the quarter-century-long declining trends in environmental concentrations of DDT worldwide, international regulation of DDT is warranted.

Chapter 3 applies the framework to determine whether an unbiased and comprehensive application of the precautionary principle would justify banning GM crops. It also examines whether such a ban would be consistent with, or further the stated aims and objectives of, the international Convention on Biological Diversity, the Cartagena Biosafety Protocol, and various international declarations that might be read to imply that freedom from hunger and malnutrition is a fundamental human right. Chapter 3 also addresses other arguments that have been offered as rationales for a GM crop ban, namely, that the rich OECD nations are “awash in surplus grain,” they do not need to increase either food production or productivity, and that the world’s real problems are unequal access and maldistribution rather than insufficient food.

Chapter 4 examines the policy of forcing the pace of greenhouse gas reductions beyond what would occur with secular (i.e., “normal”) trends in technological change. It also addresses the role of adaptation as a precautionary policy in relation to climate change.

A Framework for Applying the Precautionary Principle under
Competing Uncertainties

Few actions are either unmitigated disasters or unadulterated benefits, and certainty in science is the exception rather than the rule.How, then, do we formulate precautionary policies in situations where an action could lead simultaneously to uncertain benefits and uncertain harms (or costs) to public health and the environment?

The only way to implement the precautionary principle intelligently under such conditions is to formulate hierarchical criteria and rank various threats based upon their characteristics and the degree of certainty attached to them. Consequently, I offer a set of criteria to construct a precautionary framework.

The first of these is the human mortality criterion—that is, the threat of death to any human being, no matter how lowly that human being may be, outweighs similar threats to members of other species, no matter how magnificent those species. Moreover, in general, other nonmortal threats to human health should take precedence over threats to the environment, although there might be exceptions based on the nature, severity, and extent...

Table of contents

• 1. Escaping Goblins, Only to Be Captured by Wolves?
• 2. DDT: Silent Spring or Silent People?
• 3. The Risks and Rewards of Genetically Modified Crops
• 4. Global Warming: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?
• 5. Ensuring that Good Intentions Do Not Spawn Bad Outcomes
• References