The Improving State of the World

Why We're Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet

Indur M. Goklany

• Publisher: Cato Institute
• Year: 2007
• Print ISBN: 9781930865983
• eBook ISBN: 9781933995410
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Environment & Energy Policy
• Index: Politics & International Relations

Many people believe that globalization and its key components have made matters worse for humanity and the environment. Indur M. Goklany exposes this as a complete myth and challenges people to consider how much worse the world would be without them. Goklany confronts foes of globalization and demonstrates that economic growth, technological change and free trade helped to power a "cycle of progress" that in the last two centuries enabled unprecedented improvements in every objective measurement of human well-being. His analysis is accompanied by an extensive range of charts, historical data, and statistics.

The Improving State of the World represents an important contribution to the environment versus development debate and collects in one volume for the first time the long-term trends in a broad array of the most significant indicators of human and environmental well-being, and their dependence on economic development and technological change. While noting that the record is more complicated on the environmental front, the author shows how innovation, increased affluence and key institutions have combined to address environmental degradation. The author notes that the early stages of development can indeed cause environmental problems, but additional development creates greater wealth allowing societies to create and afford cleaner technologies. Development becomes the solution rather than the problem.

Notes

Chapter 1

1. Charles Dickens, The Old Curiosity Shop (Pleasantvill, NY: Reader’s Digest Association, 1988), pp. 316–18. Note this was originally published in serial form in 1840–1841. The first book edition apparently appeared in 1841.

2. Analysis by Roderick Floud and Bernard Harris of human development in Britain from 1756 to 1980 indicates that its level commenced a long-term increase in the latter part of the 18th century. The level faltered slightly in the late 1830s, but it has been climbing since the 1840s. To measure the level of human development, they used a human development index (HDI) composed of life expectancy at birth, percent literacy, and the logarithm of the gross domestic product per capita. The HDI is described in greater detail in chapter 2. Other measures of human welfare (e.g., heights and life expectancy) indicate a slight retrenchment during the 1830s and 1840s. However, all those measures indicate a sustained improvement in human welfare since that time. See Roderick Floud and Bernard Harris, ‘‘Health, Height, and Welfare: Britain, 1700–1980,’’ in Health and Welfare During Industrialization, ed. Richard H. Steckel and Roderick Floud (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1997), pp. 91–126. In particular, see pages 116 and 118.

3. Indur M. Goklany, ‘‘The Future of Industrial Society’’ (paper presented at the International Conference on Industrial Ecology and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, Troyes, France, September 22–25, 1999); Goklany, ‘‘Economic Growth and the State of Humanity,’’ Policy Study no. 21, Political Economy Research Center, Bozeman, MT, 2001.

4. Indur M. Goklany, ‘‘Saving Habitat and Conserving Biodiversity on a Crowded Planet,’’ BioScience 48 (1998): 941–53; Indur M. Goklany, ‘‘Potential Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration Compared to Other Environmental Problems,’’ Technology 7S (2000):189–213.

5. For example, civil war, aggravated by droughts, caused famines in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan in the 1990s. Similarly, a dysfunctional regime converted a food problem into a full-scale famine in North Korea. See Goklany, ‘‘Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth, and Free Trade,’’ Climatic Change 30 (1995): 427–49.

6. E. A. Wrigley and R. S. Schofield, The Population History of England 1541–1871: A Reconstruction (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1981), p. 529; Michael R. Haines, Estimated Life Tables for the United States, 1850–1900, Historical Paper no. 59 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994); Roderick Floud and Bernard Harris, ‘‘Health, Height, and Welfare: Britain, 1700–1980.’’

7. Paul Harrison, The Third Revolution (London: I. B. Tauris, 1992); Atiq Rahman, Nick Robins, and Anne Roncerel, eds., Exploding the Population Myth: Consumption versus Population: Which Is the Climate Bomb? (Brussels, Belgium: Climate Network Europe, 1993); Stephen Boyden and Stephen Dover, ‘‘Natural-Resource Consumption and Its Environmental Impacts in the Western World: Impacts of Increasing per Capita Consumption,’’ Ambio 21 (1992): 63–69; Norman Myers, ‘‘Consumption: Challenge to Sustainable Development,’’ Science 276 (April 4, 1997): 53–55; and Robert Engelman, Stabilizing the Atmosphere: Population, Consumption, and Greenhouse Gases (Washington, DC: Population Action International, 1994).

8. Henceforth, I will use the term ‘‘environmental’’ to pertain to the environment as well as natural resources.

9. Paul R. Ehrlich, The Population Bomb (New York: Ballantine Books, 1968).

10. Paul R. Ehrlich and Richard L. Harriman, How to Be a Survivor: A Plan to Save Planet Earth (New York: Ballantine, 1971), pp. 166–203.

11. Ibid., pp. 14–15.

12. Ibid. p. 21.

13. Lester R. Brown, World Without Borders (New York: Random House, 1972), p. 18.

14. Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind (New York: Universe Books, 1972).

15. Gerald O. Barney, ed., Global 2000 Report to the President (New York: Pergamon Press, 1980). See also James Gustave Speth, Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004), pp. 1–9.

16. Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, and Jorgen Randers, Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future (Post Mills, VT: Chelsea Green, 1992); Garrett Hardin, Living Within Limits: Ecology, Economics, and Population Taboos (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), pp. 202–03.

17. Barry Commoner, ‘‘The Environmental Cost of Economic Growth,’’ Chemistry in Britain 8 (1972): 52–65.

18. Wilfred Beckerman, In Defence of Economic Growth (London: Jonathan Cape, 1974); Wilfred Beckerman, Through Green-Colored Glasses: Environmentalism Reconsidered (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 1996); Julian L. Simon and Herman Kahn, eds., The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000 (New York: Blackwell, 1984); Julian L. Simon, E. Calvin Beisner, and John Phelps, eds., The State of Humanity (Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 1994); Ronald Bailey, ed., The True State of the Planet (New York: Free Press, 1995); Ronald Bailey, ed., Earth Report 2000: Revisiting the True State of the Planet (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1999); Gregg Easterbrook, A Moment on the Earth: The Coming Age of Environmental Optimism (New York: Viking, 1995); Bjørn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).

19. See, for example, Jim Norton, ‘‘Correcting Myths from Gregg Easterbrook,’’ http://info-pollution.com/easter.htm (accessed February 27, 2006); ‘‘Correcting Myths from Bjørn Lomborg,’’ http://info-pollution.com/lomborg.htm (accessed February 27, 2006); Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, ‘‘Betrayal of Science and Reason: How Anti-environmental Rhetoric Threatens Our Future (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1996); John Rennie, Stephen Schneider, John P. Holdren, John Bongaarts, and Thomas Lovejoy, ‘‘Misleading Math about the Earth,’’ Scientific American (January 2002): 61–71.

20. Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty, 2003 Annual Report (Copenhagen: Danish Research Asgency, 2004), pp. 26–28, http://forsk.dk/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/FORSKNINGSSTYRELSEN/FORSKNINGSSTYRELSEN_FORSIDE/UDV_ALGENE_VIDENSKABELIG_UREDELIGHED/NYT_FRA_UVVU/PRESSEMEDDELELSER/DCSD_REPORT_2003/UVVU_2003_EN.PDF (accessed March 2, 2006); Environmental Assessment Institute, ‘‘Lomborg Decision Overturned by Danish Ministry of Science,’’ December 17, 2003, http://www.imv.dk/Default.aspx?ID=233; Martin Agerup, ‘‘Something’s (No Longer) Rotten in Denmark,’’ December 18, 2003, http://www.policynetwork.net/main/article.php?article_id=562 (accessed March 2, 2006). See also John Kay, ‘‘Previous Convictions: Physics Envy,’’ Prospect 85 (April 2003), http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/printarticle.php?id=5552&category==143&issue=o&author= (accessed March 2, 2006).

21. For example, Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis L. Meadows, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2004); Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, and the Human Future (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2004); James Gustave Speth, Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004); Lester R. Brown, Plan B: Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003); Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Viking, 2005).

22. Barry Commoner fully developed this identity. See ‘‘The Environmental Cost of Economic Growth,’’ Chemistry in Britain 8 (1972): 52–65—but it was popularized in its present form by Ehrlich and his collaborators in Anne H. Ehrlich and Paul R. Ehrlich, Earth (New York: Franklin Watts, 1987), pp. 109–12; and Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, The Population Explosion (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1990), pp. 58, 273.

23. Jesse H. Ausubel, ‘‘Does Climate Still Matter?’’ Nature 350 (1991): 649–52; See also Goklany, ‘‘Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth, and Free Trade.’’

24. Barry Commoner, ‘‘The Environmental Cost of Economic Growth’’; Paul R. Ehrlich and John P. Holdren, ‘‘Impact of Population Growth,’’ Science 171 (1971): 1212–17; Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, Healing the Planet (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley 1991), p. 7.

25. John R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, Healing the Planet, p. 7.

26. Norman Myers, ‘‘Consumption: Challenge to Sustainable Development.’’

27. Carolyn Raffensperger and Joel Tickner, eds., Protecting Public Health and the Environment: Implementing the Precautionary Principle (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1999).

28. Jared Diamond, Collapse, p. 504.

29. Ibid., p. 505.

30. Paul R. Ehrlich and John P. Holdren, ‘‘Impact of Population Growth’’; Jared Diamond, Collapse, p. 490.

31. Indur M. Goklany, The Precautionary Principle: A Critical Appraisal of Environmental Risk Assessment (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2001).

32. Ibid.

33. William J. Clinton, State of the Union Address, 1998, www.pub.whitehouse.gov/uri-res/I2R?pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/1998/01/27/11.text.1 (accessed on September 18, 1998); William J. Clinton, State of the Union Address, 1999, www.pub.whitehouse.gov/uri-res/I2R?pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/1999/1/20/1.text.1 (accessed on July 7, 1999).

34. Indur M. Goklany, The Precautionary Principle.

35. Indur M. Goklany, ‘‘From Precautionary Principle to Risk-Risk Analysis,’’ Nature Biotechnology 20 (2002): 1075.

36. Indur M. Goklany, The Precautionary Principle.

37. Jesse H. Ausubel, ‘‘Resources and Environment in the 21st Century: Seeing Past the Phantoms,’’ World Energy Council Journal (July 1998): 8–16; David S. Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor (New York: W. W. Norton, 1998).

38. Indur M. Goklany, ‘‘Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth, and Free Trade,’’ 427–49; Goklany, ‘‘Richer Is Cleaner: Long Term Trends in Global Air Quality,’’ in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey (New York: Free Press, 1995), pp. 339–77; Indur M. Goklany, Clearing the Air: The True Story of the War on Air Pollution (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 1999).

39. Simon Kuznets, ‘‘Economic Growth and Income Inequality,’’ American Economic Review 45 (1955): 1–28.

40. Nemat Shafik and Sushenjit Bandhopadhyaya, ‘‘Economic Growth and Environmental Quality: Time Series and Cross-Country Evidence,’’ World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. 904, Washington, DC, 1992; Gene M. Grossman and Alan B. Krueger, ‘‘Economic Growth and the Environment,’’ Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1995): 353–77; Thomas M. Selden and Daqing Song, ‘‘Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?’’Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 27 (1994): 147–62.

41. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers: IPCC WGI Third Assessment Report (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001).

Chapter 2

1. Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, Atlas of World Population History (New York: Penguin, 1978), p. 342; United Nations Population Division (UNPD), World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Database, http://esa.un.org/unpp (accessed August 27, 2005), henceforth WPP ...

Table of contents

• Acknowledgments
• PART A ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND THE HUMAN CONDITON
• PART B THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ON THE ENVIRONMENT
• PART C RECONCILING HUMAN WELL-BEING WITH ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
• PART D SUSTAINING THE HUMAN ENTERPRISE
• Appendix A
• Appendix B
• Notes