CHAPTER 1
Strategic Bombardment
Expectation, Theory, and Practice in the Early Twentieth Century
TAMI DAVIS BIDDLE
Even before human flight was possible, the idea of âstrategic bombingâ was imagined by those who envisioned the prospect of flying beyond armies and naviesâthe traditional guardians of nationsâand attacking an enemyâs heartland directly. As this idea evolved, two subcomponents emerged. The first argued that crucial elements of an enemyâs war economy could be identified and attacked directly, destroying the enemyâs means to carry on. The second argued that an enemy populationâunprotected and untrained for warâwould cope poorly when bombs began to fall. That populationâs acute awareness of its vulnerability would produce societal and political chaos, eroding the popular will to fight and forcing the enemy government to sue for terms. Both of these, the latter in particular, had serious ramifications for the notion of âdiscriminationâ inherent in the just war tradition, which called on belligerents to refrain from attacking noncombatants.1
Sometimes these ideas were articulated separately, and sometimes they were merged together. Early air theorists did not always make their working assumptions clear; indeed, they rarely explained the specific logic that linked aerial attacks and enemy capitulation. But many advocates, such as Billy Mitchell, were willing to write prolifically and leverage prevailing social and political fears to promote their ideas. The argument that it would be possible to identify specific targets in an enemy war economy and then attack them directly rests on two assumptions: 1) targets can be readily located; and 2) bombers will reach their targets without suffering prohibitive losses. The argument that civilian populations will be particularly susceptible to air attack rests upon the premise that exposed citizens will be prone to disruption and panic in the face of a threat from the sky. These assumptions were highly problematic for a number of reasons, but because the interpretation of limited experience was highly colored by expectation and by cognitive and cultural biasâand because there was so little systematic analysis of First World War and interwar bombingâthe foundational premises remained largely unchallenged going into the Second World War.2
For political and military elites charged with maintaining the security of states, these theories of long-range bombardment were alternately frightening and seductive. On the one hand, they threatened to nullify traditional means of preserving state security (and thus political legitimacy); on the other hand, they seemed to offer a potential âsilver bulletâ for both deterrence and war-fighting: a relatively inexpensive technology-intensive weapon system that might prove so daunting as to deter war, or to end it quickly should it arise. The unresolved tension between fear and seduction and the vexing issue of discrimination dominated the narrative of aerial bombing in its earliest years.
This essay will offer an overview of long-range bombing from the first years of the twentieth century through the end of the Second World War; it will compare pronouncements and expectations with actual war experience and will discuss related ideas about the possibility of protecting civilian populations in war. The failure to establish and uphold adequate protections for such populationsâalong with the nature of mid-twentieth-century aviation technology and the mounting pressures felt by combatants in the midst of total warâcombined to produce unprecedented numbers of civilian deaths and casualties in the Second World War.3 That war and the atomic era that followed it placed civilians directly in the crosshairs of the most powerful weapons systems that had ever been imagined or created. But even though the war experience of the early twentieth century ran roughshod over norms calling for discrimination in air warfare, these were never completely abandoned. They retained a fundamental, instinctive legitimacy throughout these years and served as an essential (if battered) focal point for moral and legal discussions about air warfare.
Early Speculation about Aerial Bombing
As scientific progress continued, speculative ideas about air war were infused with the hopes, concerns, and fears of the day. In 1862, Victor Hugo prophesied that aircraft would bring about the universal abolition of borders, leading to the end of wars and a great âpeaceful revolution.â4 In 1893, Major J. D. Fullerton of the British Royal Engineers theorized about an aerial ârevolution in the art of war.â A year later, inventor Octave Chanute postulated that because no territory would be immune from the horrors of air war, âthe ultimate effect will be to diminish greatly the frequency of wars and to substitute more rational methods of settling international misunderstandings.â5 In 1905, the British War Officeâs Manual of Military Ballooning argued that balloons dropping guncotton charges might have a âmoral effectâ on the enemy. The âmoral effectâ (pronounced âmoraleâ but spelled without the âe,â as in the French) reflected a particularly potent and widespread fixation in the European military, echoing the emphasis on âwillâ in warfare that Clausewitz and French writers including Foch, du Picq, Langlois, and de Grandmaison highlighted.6
This kind of speculation should not, perhaps, be surprising. After all, human flight opened up the prospect of warfare raining down from the skies, making all those below vulnerable in ways they had never been before. This prospect unsettled political leaders and military planners, who worried that those on the home front were already alienated from their governments because of the exploitation inherent in the industrial world, with its long hours of hard labor for low wages and its crowded and stressful living conditions. Frequent civil strife and workplace crises plagued industrial nations early in the twentieth century, and naturally these fueled speculation and worry about how workers would behave in wartime. In two lectures to the Royal United Services Institution in 1909, T. Miller Maguire associated what he called âthe flotsam and jetsam of decaying British humanityâ with the perversions of the âfactory system.â7
The emphasis on âmoral effectsâ in war emphasized the qualities valued by upper-middle-class Victorian- and Edwardian-era societiesâcourage, tenacity, and willpowerâbut it also resonated with prejudices and darker trends therein, including social Darwinism. Speculation was widespread not only about how competing states would stack up against one another but also about how different races and classes within a state might affect its overall strength and cohesion under stress. In 1908, the British anxiously watched the flight tests of Count Ferdinand von Zeppelinâs airships. Indeed, concern over Britainâs ability to defend itself was at the center of a flurry of invasion literature that peaked between 1906 and 1909.8
At the same time, it was clear that the industrial environment was eroding the ability of belligerent states to discriminate between combatants and noncombatants. Were urban workers contributing to an enemy war economy to be considered noncombatants? Were cities with governmental and administrative centers to be considered military targets in war, open to aerial bombardment? The second Hague Peace Conference of 1907, which took place after heavier-than-air flight had become a reality, sought to adapt the Rules of land bombardment from the 1899 Hague Conference. Article 25 of the land warfare convention was amended to read: âThe attack or bombardment by whatever means of towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended is prohibited.â This language effectively replaced the five-year prohibition on the dropping of projectiles from aerial platforms that had been enacted at the 1899 Conference.9 But the meaning of the term âundefendedâ was unclear, and in any event the proscription was muddied by guidance given to naval forces that allowed for the lawful bombardment of military objects, including depots of arms or war matĂ©riel, and workshops or plants that could be utilized for the needs of the hostile fleet or army. The naval convention also absolved commanders of responsibility for âany unavoidable damage which may be caused by bombardment.â10
The language of the 1907 conference would cause subsequent confusion while failing to erect meaningful barriers in the path of air warfare. But this failure was not due solely to a lack of clarity in the wording of the law; neither the ideas nor the legal texts could exist in isolation from politics. Some states did not wish to deny themselves a potentially advantageous tool of war, and all feared the vulnerability that might arise from trusting oneâs fate to documents that oneâs adversaries might ignore in the heat of conflict.11 The first bombs were dropped by aircraft during the Italo-Turkish war of 1911â12, when Lieutenant Giulio Gavotti hurled projectiles onto villagers in Libya on 1 November 1911.12
The First World War
Concerns over public robustness and resilience helped shape the context for military debate and planning on the role of aircraft in war prior to 1914. But there was no consensus on what these new and still primitive machines might accomplish or how they ought to be assessed against other military resources. When war came in 1914, most of the combatant states were still integrating aerial weapons into their force structures.13 Interservice rivalries slowed progress in most states, including Britain, where aerial resources were divided between the Royal Naval Air Service (RNAS) and the armyâs Royal Flying Corps (RFC). But the value of aerial reconnaissanceâand thus the value of air space (both the enemyâs and oneâs own)âbecame immediately apparent. Other roles for aircraft evolved quickly, including communication, battlefield attack and assault, and battlefield interdiction. Manuals were written and rewritten every few months.14
Most states that possessed aircraft had shown interest in strategic bombing, but the development of bombing doctrine varied. The French began aerial attacks on German industry as a way of eroding the enemyâs war-making capacity, and the Italians attacked enemy naval bases. These were pieces of integrated campaigns and were not typically seen as separate from army and navy efforts. As the French found themselves overwhelmed by the demands of the ground war in 1916 and 1917, they had fewer resources to devote to the air; increasingly, the French high command insisted that aerial efforts be concentrated on the battlefield.15
Beginning in 1915 the German Kaiser authorized the use of airships in an offensive designed to undermine both the war-making capacity and the will of their British enemy. German deputy chief of naval staff Paul Behnke speculated that the ensuing panic might ârender it doubtful that the war can be continued.â In 1916, Peter Strasser, commander of the German Naval Airship Division, urged as large an offensive as possible to provoke âa prompt and victorious ending of the war.â16 Throughout 1915 and early 1916, the British were vulnerable to the onslaughts. Over time, though, the trends shifted: better fighters, special incendiary bullets, and much more efficient signals communication made flying airships over England very risky by late 1916.17
Continued stalemate in 1917 provoked the Germans to make another attempt to break the will of the British. In the spring and summer, Gotha and four-engine âgiantâ bombers (Riesenflugzeuge) menaced British cities. Two small daylight raids on London (13 June and 7 July) managed to cause significant casualties, raising the indignation of the British, especially in response to bombs that hit a kindergarten. The public demanded better air defenses and retaliation in kind. This public outcryâindeed, the very fact of the publicâs demand for a voice in the prosecution of the warâunsettled British elites, especially in a year when strikes and industrial action had surged once again and when the Russian Revolution was in full swing.18
British field marshal Sir Douglas Haig found himself forced, against his will, to send fighters from the Western Front back to England. A commission led by South African general and statesman Jan Christian Smuts came to some radical conclusions about air warfare: âAs far as can at present be foreseen there is absolutely no limit to the scale of its future independent war use. And the day may not be far off when aerial operations . . . on a vast scale may become the principal operations of war, to which the older forms of military and naval operations may become secondary and subordinate.â19 This radical text was among the catalysts for an independent air force in Britain.
The Germans bombed London again in September and then later in the autumn, under cover of night and with high hopes invested in a newly developed incendiary bomb. While it is no small thing to change oneâs defense structure in the midst of a major war, British decision makers did so because of their fears of an expanded German air offensive, their anxiety about the domestic front, and the perceived need to respond to public pressure.20
Neither Haig nor Major General Sir Hugh Trenchard, then commanding the armyâs air offensive on the Western Front, was interested in forming a new service. Nonetheless, by May 1918, Trenchard found himself overseeing a long-range bombing force created to wage attacks on Germany.21 A ...