A Set of Trump Cards for Trump’s Tariffs

Perspectives from Thailand

Bank Ngamarunchot

• Publisher: ISEAS
• Year: 2026
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• eBook ISBN:
  9789815361377
• Subtopic: Trade & Tariffs
• Index: Politics & International Relations

The United States began imposing tariffs in February 2025, resulting in a clear 19 per cent reciprocal tariff rate for Thailand by August. In return, Thailand is obligated to eliminate tariffs on 99 per cent of US products imported into the country. The US tariff will raise prices for Thai goods, consequently reducing US demand for them. But Thailand's zero tariff will have two-pronged effects. On the one hand, it will put pressure on Thai farmers and some local producers. On the other, it will lower costs for Thai manufacturers who use US raw materials, potentially boosting their cost competitiveness. The tariffs imposed by the United States on other countries could partly offset the negative effects on Thailand and create opportunities for Thai exporters to expand their market share, particularly where competitors face higher tariff barriers. Global competition will intensify as most countries seek non-US markets to offset lost sales. Crucially, the US-China conflict diverts cheap, high-volume Chinese goods into Thailand, harming local manufacturers and creating a severe transshipment risk that could lead to an additional 40 per cent tariff on Thai exports. Thailand needs a comprehensive strategy to address its trade challenges. Such a strategy should aim to achieve the following: provide urgent relief for firms directly affected by tariffs; implement measures to manage the influx of Chinese goods and the problem of transshipment; and establish a long-term plan to boost the competitiveness of Thai entrepreneurs in the face of fierce global trade pressure.

Table of contents

• Foreword
• Executive Summary
• A Set of Trump Cards for Trump’s Tariffs: Perspectives from Thailand