PART I: PERPETUATING WAR
DRONES IN THE TRIBAL ZONE
Virtual War and Losing Hearts and Minds
in the Af-Pak War
Jeffrey A. Sluka
You can't say civilization don't advanceâŚin every war they kill you in a new way.
âWill Rogers
This essay considers the civilian casualties caused by the use of air strikes, particularly remote-controlled drones, in the current wars in the tribal zones of Afghanistan and Pakistan. I argue that these tactics of virtual counterinsurgency, touted as being highly discriminate and effective (literally able to âput warheads on foreheadsâ) and as representing the technological cutting edge of a revolution in advanced modern warfare capabilities, have in practice resulted in a collateral disaster that has effectively ensured that the âbattle for hearts and mindsâ among these communitiesâand hence the âglobal war on terrorismâ in the so-called Af-Pak warâhas been lost.
As the war in Afghanistan has grown and spread to Pakistan, it has increasingly relied on air power, and, consequently, the number of civilian casualties has rapidly risen. In 2008, Human Rights Watch reported that â[c]ivilian deaths in Afghanistan from US and NATO air strikes nearly tripled from 2006 to 2007â and warned that this was âexacerbating the problem and fuelling a public backlashâ (Human Rights Watch 2008). Nonetheless, in response to increasing Taliban attacks, the US-led forces retaliated with massive aerial bombing campaigns and large-scale household raids. The number of insurgent attacks increased, the number of civilian casualties skyrocketed, and in the 15 months of this operation more civilians were killed than in the previous four years combined. While this surge, little noted by the media, failed miserably, the first thing that the newly elected Obama regime did was to launch another one.
Today, most Afghans say that they feel occupied by the American and allied foreign troops and threatened by the Taliban. The majority now regard the US and coalition forces as they did the Russiansâas foreign, anti-Muslim invadersâand they strongly oppose sending in more troops. There has been a steady decline in support for the US and allied forces: in 2005, 80 percent of Afghans supported the presence of foreign troops, but by February 2009 fewer than half did (The Week, 27 February 2009).
In Pakistan, the war escalated in May 2009, when the Pakistan Army, under pressure from the US, launched large-scale counterinsurgency operations in the tribal borderlands in the northwest of the country. This campaign killed and maimed thousands of civilians and created a huge humanitarian catastrophe, including 2 million refugees. At the same time, the CIA stepped up a campaign of airborne attacks by unmanned drones in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, inhabited primarily by Pashtun tribes, which they had begun in January 2006. These attacks have killed hundreds of civilians, uniting the Pashtun against the US and recruiting and increasing popular support for the Taliban. The strikes are deeply unpopular in Pakistan, and this tactic is backfiring by sowing public anger and fueling anti-Americanism, while failing to defeat the militants. A poll conducted in July and August 2009 showed that Pakistanis are increasingly distrustful and suspicious of America, with 80 percent opposed to cooperating with the US any longer in its âwar on terrorismâ, and 76 percent opposed to the use of the drone strikes. This poll excluded the country's tribal areas, where the opposition would have been even greater (Hayden 2009: 23).
The Af-Pak War Body Count
We have no idea exactly how many civilians have been killed or wounded by the US and its allies in the Af-Pak war, but there is no doubt that the âcollateral damageâ has been widespread. The âfog of warâ makes counting the dead difficult, and ethnographic experience in war zones suggests that all official figures on civilian casualties are likely to be undercounts. In Afghanistan, there have been approximately 21,250 total civilian casualties, with 7,589 killed and 13,660 seriously wounded.1 In Pakistan, between 2003 and 2011, the war on terrorism probably killed about 9,000 civilians.2
In 2008, according to Afghanistan Rights Monitor, a Kabul-based watchdog organization, 3,917 civilians were killedâmore than two-thirds in rebel attacks, 1,100 by Afghan and foreign forces, and about 680 in air strikes. In 2009, a UN report in July said that in the first half of the year about 1,800 civilians were killed: the Taliban and tribal warlords were responsible for about 1,000 deaths, and 700 civilians were killed by international and Afghan forces, including 455 who died in air strikes. It also reported that the war is spreading and that the number of civilians being killed is currently doubling at the rate of every two years (Sunday Star-Times, 19 July 2009).
Death from Above
The US Air Force (USAF) has been increasingly relying on âunmanned aerial vehiclesâ (UAVs) or drones, primarily the Predator and the Reaper. Launched from Afghanistan, these âghost planesâ are flown by âjoystick pilotsâ located halfway around the world in the continental US. As Washington and the military see it, the ideal use of this system is to âpick offâ terrorist leaders. The pilots pinpoint their targets by watching streams of real-time video, taken by advanced surveillance systems on the drones. Most of the drones are also armed with Hellfire missiles or âsmart bombsâ, which the pilots can fire with the push of a button, once they have spotted the targets on their video screens. Although it takes up to 17 steps to fire a missile and incinerate those below, killing is just a matter of entering a computer command: it is like pushing âcontrol-alt-deleteâ, and the target dies.3
By 2011, these hunter-killer drones were performing 50 combat air patrols at any one time, a number that is expected to increase to 65 by 2013. In 2009, the USAF trained more joystick pilots than new fighter and bomber pilots, creating a âsustainable career pathâ for USAF officers (Kaplan 2009). One Predator âpilot-from-afarâ has commented that âIt's not as potent an emotion as being on the battlefield,â but â[i]t's like a video game. It can get a little bloodthirsty. But it's fucking cool.â While the pilots are no longer at risk, the experience of fighting from home bases has brought new psychological twists to war: âYou see Americans [or civilians?âJ.S.] killed in front of your eyes and then have to go to a PTA [Parent Teacher Association] meeting,â said another pilot (quoted in Singer 2009: 347).
Engelhardt (2009b) observes that the drones are the âwonder weapon of the moment,â and âyou can already see the military-industrial-robotics complex in formation.â In fact, as Der Derian (2009: xxxvi) describes, they are already part of a massive and expanding âmilitary-industrial-media-entertainment network.â The hype and hubris surrounding this technology is huge, and the mainstream media is full of glowing reports on the drones, some of which imply that their use could win the war on terrorism by themselves. For example, an April 2009 report stated that the drones were killing Taliban and Al-Qaeda leaders and that âthe rest have begun fighting among themselves out of panic and suspicion. âIf you were to continue on this paceâŚAl-Qaeda is deadââ (The Week, 3 April 2009). in May 2009, in an uncritical 60 Minutes report, an officer in charge of USAF drone operations was asked if there were ever mistakes in the drone attacks: âWhat if you get it wrong?â âWe don'tâ was his response.
The USAF claims that its priority is to target insurgents with precision while avoiding civilian casualties. It strongly asserts that it is very concerned about civilian casualties and takes extreme measures to avoid them. It says that there is always a military lawyer on duty, whose job is to provide advice regarding the Law of Armed Conflict, which prohibits the intentional targeting of civilians and requires militaries to minimize risks to them. Supposedly, a strict NATO protocol requires high-level approval for air strikes when civilians are known to be in or near Taliban targets. When civilians are detected, strikes are to be called off. The USAF contends that it is extremely precise and that it has terminated many operations when it appeared that civilian casualties might result.
The drones are promoted as the âfuture of warâ, the âonly good thingâ to come out of the war on terrorism, and an effective and highly discriminate counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency weapon. Virtually no one doubts that robots will eventually occupy a central role in the US military. As Singer (2009) has shown, it is an unprecedented revolution in military affairs. That there is virtually no limit to the extraordinary hype about these weapons as the âgreatest, weirdest, coolest hardware in the American arsenalâ was recognized in an article in Newsweek in September 2009, which categorized the publicity about drones as representing âweapons pornâ (Graham 2009; see also Satia 2009).
Critique of the Drone War
This hype cannot be believed: the evidence shows that it deals in sheer fantasy, if not literally science fiction, and that there have been many mistakes. In particular, the drone attacks in Pakistan, which have been touted as the most successful, have in fact been responsible for the most civilian casualties. Of the 60 Predator strikes in Pakistan between January 2006 and April 2009, only 10 hit their actual targets and 687 civilians were killed.4 Pakistan Body Count, which tracks drone casualties, says that by the end of March 2011, 2,205 civilians had been killed and 909 seriously injured, 5 but conservative Western sources claim that the figure killed is from 290 to 461.6 In April 2009, David Kilcullen, the anthropologist dubbed by the media as a âcounter-insurgency guruâ, advised the US Congress that the drone attacks in Pakistan are backfiring and should be stopped. He said: âSince 2006, we've killed 14 senior Al-Qaeda leaders using drone strikes; in the same period, we've killed 700 Pakistani civilians in the same area. The drone strikes are highly unpopular. They are deeply aggravating to the population. And they've given rise to a feeling of anger that coalesces the population around the extremistsâ (Naiman 2009). Kilcullen even characterized the drone attacks as âimmoral,â because the âkill ratioâ has been 50 civilians for every militant killedâa âhit rateâ of 2 percent, or 98 percent civilian casualtiesâwhich is hardly precision killing.
The drone strikes have caused thousands of civilian casualties, have had a particular affinity for hitting weddings and funerals, and are seriously fueling the insurgency. A 2007 UN report concluded that US air strikes were among the principal motivations for suicide attackers in Afghanistan (Bergen and Tiedemann 2007). At the end of 2008, a survey of 42 Taliban fighters revealed that 12 had seen family members killed in air strikes and 6 had joined the insurgency after such attacks (Gopal 2009). Far more who have not joined have offered their support. It has also been reported that the drone strikes in Pakistan âare creating turmoil in the tribal areas. A witch-hunt against suspected spies has resulted in the deaths of at least a dozen people in North Waziristan, many of them by beheadingâ (Yousafzai and Hosenball 2009: 35). Even when the air strikes have succeeded in killing militant leaders, in many cases this has simply turned them into martyrs (MacKenzie and Saber 2009).
To President Obama and most Americans, the drones are seen as terrorist-killers, while in Afghanistan and Pakistan they are viewed as fearsome indiscriminate killers of civilians. From the imperial, âtop-downâ perspective, remote-controlled assassination drones are perceived as a fantastically successful new weapon, right out of science fiction. But from the âbottom-upâ perspective of the targeted population in the tribal zones, it has been experienced as a deeply flawed weapon that they have come to fear and resent. Furthermore, the psychology of aerial attackâof death from aboveâis a psychology of state terror. Many Afghans now say that they would rather have the Taliban back in power than nervously eye the skies every day (Gopal 2009). A villager who survived a drone attack in North Waziristan explained that even children at play are acutely conscious of drones flying overhead (Kelly 2009). For many, the much-touted sophistication of this âhigh technologyâ only makes the civilian deaths more galling (Baker 2009). Psychologically, Afghans and Pakistanis in the tribal zone view the drones only as predators; they will never see these weapons as their âprotectorsâ.
Virtual war dehumanizes the victims and desensitizes the perpetrators of violence, lowering the moral and psychological barriers to killing. In the US today, young people play video games developed by the militaryâsuch as America's Army and Close Combat: First to Fightâthat enable them to kill casually the simulated human beings whose world they control. In this way, the militarization and âweaponizationâ of culture is directly reflected in the conjunction of entertainment and military media (see also Allen, this volume). This socialization of virtual war means that the next step to killing real human beings is very small, because the change is only psychological and moral; the physical process of remote-controlled violence is exactly the same, regardless of whether the victims are real or simulated. As Ignatieff (2000: 4) has warned: âIf war becomes unreal to the citizens of modern democracies, will they care enough to restrain and control the violence exercised in their name? Will they do so, if they and their sons and daughters are spared the hazards of combat?â
Conclusion
Civilian casualties are the single biggest issue in Afghanistan and Pakistan because, as everyone agrees, including the generals running the Af-Pak war, military success is impossible without wining the âhearts and mindsâ of the people (Sluka 2009). In July 2009, in response to the rising number of civilian casualties, General Stanley McChrystal sought to change the emphasis from killing insurgents to protecting civilians. He ordered his troops to avoid calling in air strikes if civilian lives were at risk, to show the local people that the US forces are there to protect them. However, at the time of this writing, the US is scrambling for another âsurgeâ solution based on an escalation of the conflict, one that relies on sending in more troops and using more drone and other airborne attacks. This tactic is bound to fail, since it is just what got us to where we are now. The use of air power has already undermined public support for the governments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and continued aerial bombing will result in more civilian casualties, leading to more anger. The consequence will be more support and recruits for the insurgents and the extension of a long, losing war. Dropping bombs that kill civilians angers whole populations and creates ill will, and, as international mediator John Paul Lederach has asserted, bombing Taliban and Al-Qaeda targets âis like hitting a mature dandelion with a golf club. It just ensures another generation of Al-Qaedaâ (cited in Dodge 2009).
The fact that the war effort itself now fuels the insurgency and continues the cycle of violence proves that there is no military solution in Afghanistan or Pakistan. At this point, Afghanistan is certainly a failed state, and nuclear-armed Pakistan has become dangerously destabilized as well. Thus, the crucial factors that the US government and military identify for a successful counter-insurgency campaignâa stable local government that has popular support and the ability to win the hearts and minds of the peopleâare never likely to be achieved.
President Obama has taken ownership of the Afghanistan war, calling it âa war of necessityâ that is fundamental to the âdefense of our peopleâ (Leon 2009). He has ârebrandedâ George W. Bush's âglobal war on terrorismâ as âoverseas contingent operationsââa âvirtualâ expression for âwarsâ because it sounds innocuous and does not even mention the military or violence. On the other hand, the US military now refers to it as the âlong warâ. This exhibits a good dose of realism, given that the war in Afghanistan is now the second longest war in US history, after only the war in Vietnam. Obama has also chosen to follow the example of the previous administration by introducing another surge solution based on an escalation of the war. As Engelhardt (2009a) has concluded, our leaders are addicted to war: âAs things go from bad to worse and the odds grow grimmer, our leaders, like the worst of gamblers, wager ever moreâŚIn the Vietnam era, there was a shorthand word for this: âquagmireâ.â
The Obama administration has chosen to up the ante on troop numbers and drone use in Pakistan and Afghanistan, âensur...