Brexit 2015

Ralph Buckle, Tim Hewish, John C. Hulsman, Iain Mansfield, Robert Oulds

• Publisher: London Publishing Partnership
• Year: 2015
• eBook ISBN: 9780255366830
• Edition: 1

Discussions on the outcome of a potential referendum on Britain's membership of the EU have been characterised by political grandstanding, at the expense of serious economic analysis. With Brexit now a real possibility in the next Parliament, the IEA today releases a report outlining four different options for the UK in the event of a vote to leave the EU, all of which take into account both economic challenges and possibilities. In Brexit: Directions for Britain Outside the EU, various contributors outline several of possible approaches, ranging from a proposal that Britain should promote free trade and openness through the unilateral removal of trade barriers, to maintaining formal relationships with European countries through the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and/or the European Economic Area (EEA). Other proposals offer a view that the UK should seek to form economic and political alliances with countries outside of Europe, such as those in the Commonwealth.

1. A blueprint for Britain: openness not isolation1,2

Iain Mansfield

Framing the endeavour

An ‘out’ vote has occurred and the government has triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Under the terms of the Treaty (see Box 1), the UK will cease to be a member of the EU two years after that date. To steady the markets, the UK government should declare as soon as possible that it intends to observe the two-year period and not negotiate for an earlier date. This will allow as much time as possible for the many necessary preparations and remove a potential distraction from the many other and more complex items that will need to be negotiated.

1. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty1
   Under Article 50, to leave the EU a member state need simply notify the European Council of its intent. The EU treaties shall cease to apply to the member state two years after the date of notification – unless a different date is agreed to before that date (by qualified majority and obtaining the consent of the European Parliament) or after that date (by unanimity).
   During the period between notification and exit, the EU is required to negotiate and agree (by qualified majority and obtaining the consent of the European Parliament) with the member state the arrangements for its withdrawal and future relationship with the EU.

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1 http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html (accessed 1 August 2013).

This paper assumes that, in the case of an ‘out’ vote, the government of the day, regardless of party, would respect the position of the British populace in demanding a substantive change in the UK’s relationship with the EU and would therefore not seek to essentially duplicate the current status via a series of bilateral treaties. Equally, it assumes that the purpose of leaving the EU would not be to reject everything connected with Europe, but simply to regain the sovereignty to choose which aspects of the EU and European law should apply in the UK. The paper further assumes that the objective o...

Table of contents

• The authors
• Foreword
• Acknowledgement
• Editorial note
• 1. A blueprint for Britain: openness not isolation,
• 2. Britain’s post-EU future and the development of EFTA plus
• 3. Old links, new ties – global free trade through the Anglosphere and Commonwealth
• 4. Reviving the age of Drake: how a Global Free-Trade Alliance (GFTA) can transform the UK
• About the IEA