2050 - Tomorrow's Tourism

Ian Yeoman

• Publisher: Channel View Publications
• Year: 2012
• ISBN:
  9781845413040
• Topic: Negocios y empresa
• Subtopic: Hostelería, viajes y turismo

In 2050, it is predicted that 4.7bn or nearly 50% of the world's population will take an international holiday. But can humankind meet that forecast given the issues of ageing populations, peak oil, the global financial crisis and climate change? This book constructs scenarios from Shanghai to Edinburgh, Seoul to California encompassing complex topics such as human trafficking, conferences, transport, food tourism or technological innovation. This is a blue skies thinking book about the future of tourism and a thought-provoking analytical commentary.

Technology

5 Edinburgh 2050: Technological Revolution

Learning points

• In order to understand the future of technological advancement, reality can be viewed best through the paradigm of science fiction.

• This chapter explains the key drivers of technological change, the interface with tourists and tourism consumption.

• Real and personal information will still be the number one influence on holiday purchases in 2050 even in a technological world.

Introduction: The Role of Technology

Graham Whitehead, the renowned BT futurologist said, ‘consumers will see more technology change in the next ten years than was witnessed in the previous hundred years’ (Whitehead, 2005a, 2005b). Exponential change in technology has altered how consumers use information and how this impacts on tourism. The internet has changed distribution patterns and mobile technologies are about to change how tourists ‘see and book’. As Google’s Claire Hatton (2009: 638) said ‘30% of hotel bookings in the cities of Tokyo and Seoul are on the day of arrival through the mobile phone and this trend can only grow’. Today’s typical tourist is pointing their mobile phone at a hotel, using augmented reality (AR) platforms to view information and then making reservations via websites such as Expedia. The provision of information on tourism products is available through a variety of channels and technological platforms, bringing with it a range of benefits such as convenience with user-friendly interfaces, up-to-date information and affordability to the end user. These developments increasingly drive the integration of technology within our everyday lives with mobile internet, navigation systems and smartphones, which attempt to constantly keep us connected to the digital world. This chapter explains how future tourists will interface with technology through a scenario of the life of Maria who is enjoying the Edinburgh Festival in 2050. The core of the chapter identifies 10 technological driving forces which will shape the future.

How Technology has Changed Everything

The internet is one of the main drivers of product design as many mobile devices are increasingly equipped with mobile internet capabilities. Connectivity to the internet allows faster and more immediate access to information. A survey conducted by TNS Global (2008) indicated that many see the internet as ‘an encyclopaedia of information’, where three out of the top five activities engaged by online users are related to information gathering. Survey results also indicate that 81% of respondents used a search engine to find information, 63% researched a product or service before, 61% visited a brand or product’s website and 50% used a price comparison website. These figures suggest that consumers are increasingly turning towards the internet to obtain information on products, brands and pricing. Within the tourism industry, the internet is being targeted to become the most important channel for holiday sales, information and recommendation where two out of five reservations are completed online and 55% of all European travellers use the internet for information about their travel destination, travel providers and special offers (Isabel, 2009). Recognising this trend, in 2007 Tourism New Zealand shifted its marketing activities from predominantly print media, to embrace digital and screen technology. This includes advertising through televisions, cinemas, outdoor screens and billboards and more significantly, the internet and social media (Tourism New Zealand, 2010).

Technology has become part of our everyday lives, creating a digital society. While one of the main reasons for this is the exponential advancement in technology, another key driver is the presence of the digital generations (Generation Y onwards), and their demand for fast, innovative technology products. High-speed broadband with larger bandwidth have allowed greater capacity of network traffic and data sharing while new gadgets, increasingly equipped with mobile internet, reflect the level of demand and comfort societies have towards technologies. This trend is echoed in book sales with Amazon’s sales of Kindle e-books outnumbering its sales of hard-covered books (Miller, 2010). Technology has also allowed the development of online user-generated content, altering the way information is provided, gathered and perceived. Information provision has evolved from the traditional single-directional push of information from suppliers to consumers to a multi-directional share of information between suppliers and consumers, and between consumers themselves. Deloitte predicts that in 2011, more than 50% of computing devices sold globally will not be PCs. Instead, sales of smartphones and tablet computers would come to 425 million, well above the sales of 390 million PCs (CNA, 2011a). This implies that user-generated content will increasingly penetrate the online world of information, reflecting two future scenarios of a ‘Free Information Society’ and of ‘Real Information Society’ as proposed by Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie (2006). A free information society highlights that information is freely available and consumers no longer need to purchase information, whereas a real information society reflects how technology supports personal information rather than replacing it.

In today’s society, digitised information is the norm. Many guidebooks such as Lonely Planet have embraced mobile devices by providing digitised guidebooks through the format of mobile applications designed for smart-phone operators like Nokia, Apple, Google and Android (Lonely Planet, 2011). However, the continuous development of technology is bringing societies to a flip point, where technologies become increasingly integrated in our daily routine. Driving this is ubiquitous computing. Ubiquitous computing refers to technologies which interact with humanity out in the open rather than users connecting with the computer; it is the interaction of one user with many interfaces through technology that is interwoven into the external environment. This concept puts forth many possibilities for interaction with information technologies without the use of devices, for example, the possibility of gathering information through a pair of contact lenses. As technology slowly recedes into the background and becomes an invisible interaction in our daily lives, the future of information provision may no longer require mobile devices.

So, Imagine This …

Maria, a 29 year old from Madrid loves culture, art and festivals and every other year visits the festivals of Edinburgh. She is thinking, what shall I do this year? Using her mobile phone, she watches the latest video on www.visitscotland.com, an interactive film which follows the exploits of Hamish, holidaying in Edinburgh, whether it is bungee jumping off the Forth Road Bridge, a performance of the Chicago Ballet at the international festival or the Russian veteran political satirist Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. As Maria watches the film, she ‘tags’ the things she wants to do, places to stay and makes arrangements for flights, all of which is brought together as an individual itinerary. Maria then confirms everything speaking to Mary, VisitScotland’s intelligent agent, a 3D hologram image on her phone.

On arrival at Edinburgh airport, Maria wants to check some local information; the cyborg information assistant is a wealth of knowledge advising Maria on local restaurants and pubs. Arriving in the city centre, Maria checks into her hotel using a biometric eye registration system. Before leaving for a tour of the old town, she has purchased a ‘witchery tour’ app for her contact lens so that she can visualise what medieval Edinburgh would be like in 1650. This is all possible given the ubiquitous nature of the city’s information network. That night, dinner is at the Rhubarb restaurant with friends before heading to the Festival Theatre to watch Mr Putin’s ‘vodka politiks’ comedy routine. The evening finishes about 1.00 am with drinks at the Balmoral Champagne Bar, a seven star bar which features mind reading bar attendants who offer immaculate service.

Drivers of Technological Innovation

In Physics of the Future Michio Kaku (2011) demonstrates that in 2100 we will control computers via tiny brain sensors and, like magicians, move objects around with the power of our minds. Artificial intelligence (AI) will be dispersed throughout the environment, and internet-enabled contact lenses will allow us to access the world’s information database or conjure up any image we desire in the blink of an eye. This chapter is not about 2100 but 2050 and considers the key drivers of technological innovation that will shape tourism. Ten drivers have been identified that shape Maria’s scenario:

Driver 1: Ubiquitous computing and the urban environment

Driver 2: Gestural interfaces

Driver 3: Beyond Moore’s law – Optical computing

Driver 4: Virtual reality and augmented reality

Driver 5: Biometrics

Driver 6: Interactive visitor centres

Driver 7: Technology and life

Driver 8: Artificial intelligence and singularity

Driver 9: Brain computer interfaces

Driver 10: Haptic technologies

Driver 1: Ubiquitous computing and the urban environment

Technologies in modern societies are highly interlinked with many of its urban elements, albeit in a rather haphazard way. Traffic cameras, for example, are connected to the internet allowing users to track live traffic conditions; transport systems timings are also linked to online systems providing information to users. Although technologies are highly assimilated in many of today’s urban environments, it still requires some form of platform – such as a mobile device – in order to send and collect mobile data.

The concept of ubiquitous computing was first invented by a researcher, Mark Weiser, who developed the idea of ‘invisible computing’ – that is, computing without computers (Greenfield, 2006). This concept is characterised as wireless, mobile and networked, where technologies are embedded into the external environment, allowing users to become more connected to their surroundings and other people. Ubiquitous computing allows integration of devices and technology applications, in a world where everything is enabled and shared. For Maria, it is the seamless working of technology which enhance her ‘witchery tour’ experience. Ubiquitous computing is sometimes also referred to as the post-desktop model of human–computer interaction or the third wave of computing. Quite opposite to virtual reality (VR), users no longer require a technological device to interact with technology; rather, this interaction is spatial and external. The evolvement of ubiquitous computing will create an urban environment that will see the disappearance of devices into a situation where multiple users are potentially interacting with multiple interfaces at a given time and place.

Adam Greenfield (2006) introduced the concept of a networked city, where elements of the urban environment such as the objects and surfaces of everyday life will have the ability to sense, process, receive, store, display transmit and even take physical action upon information. Elements such as clothes, architectural space and public spaces have information gathering, processing, storage and transmission devices capability (Lift Asia, 2008). A networked urban environment will empower people to have more control of the type and amount of information presented to them. For example, a user at present will be able to obtain information on the type of cuisine a particular restaurant offers, but in a ubiquitous urban environment, the user can choose to obtain information on whether the restaurant is open at that moment, or whether there is a queue for tables. In a world of ubiquitous computing we may eventually see the demise of artefacts such as maps and guidebooks as information shifts from ‘way-finding’ to ‘way-showing’. Users enabled by technology, will be able to navigate their way through urban environments without the use of maps or guidebooks – a trend that is already present in Tokyo. Apart from that, the use of mobile devices to present contextual information over an object through the AR is already present. As urban environments become ubiquitous and increasingly networked, more of such information which is locked as conditioned data, will be available at the users’ fingertips (Howells, 2009).

A networked urban environment empowers people in their process of information gathering. However, there are implications related to privacy, reliance on technology and social acceptance as society moves from a community to a network. It may take decades to synthesise the ubiquitous computing society. Nonetheless, we do know that the future urban landscape will be an interactive space where people and information seamlessly interact. The ubiquitous computing environment will not only affect the way we interact with information but will also influence the behaviours and movements of people within the built environment.

Modern urban environments also present opportunities for different forms of information provision. Korea, for example, launched the ‘Haru 2010 Campaign’, which utilises Korean drama media and technology to allow people to create personalised guidebooks (just like Maria in the scenario above). Visitors to the website can watch the drama and TAGs appearing on screen to gather information about tourism in Korea and their related travel interests. By watching the entire episode, visitors can also find out about their own tour styles and download guidebooks which can be easily transferred to other social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook (Haru, 2010). This campaign, clearly targeted at Generation Y and beyond, is an example of how destination marketing organisations are utilising technology to engage with visitors from various platforms such as television media, internet and social networks.

Driver 2: Gestural interfaces

Developments in ubiquitous computing have led to innovations in gestural interfaces. A gestural interface is a platform that bridges communication between humans and machines by inventing measures which allow computers to understand human body language. The screens of these interfaces are embedded with optical sensors that track the movement of the user’s fingers such that they do not have to come into contact with the display (Salton, 2009). Science fiction movies such as Minority Report illustrate the possibility of future gestural interface, where things can be controlled without devices. At present, products such as Kinect by Xbox 360 (www.xbox.com/Kinect) have incorporated gestural interfaces with sound, voice and facial recognition in its gaming console. This ‘natural user interface’ allows the system to track and interpret movement, creating a control-free entertainment experience. Future gestural interfaces will enable humans to interact with machines without having to use any mechanical devices; it is the next big thing in computer interfaces.

Information in its traditional form is typically confined to print media, or digitally on screen. However, with a gestural interface, information can be interacted with externally through simple hand gestures. ‘SixthSense’ for example, is a wearable gestural interface that augments the physical world with digital information, and allows natural hand gestures to interact with that information. It bridges the gap between intangible digital information and the tangible world and frees information from its confined state of paper or a digital screen. The gadget is comprised of a pocket projector, a mirror and a camera in the form of a pendant like a mobile device. They are connected to the projector, which enables surfaces such as walls and other physical objects to become digital interfaces by projecting information onto it. Users then can interact freely with this information with hand gestures. ‘SixthSense’ incorporates applications that help users interact with particular information. For example, the map application allows a user to navigate a map displayed on a nearby surface using hand gestures; the drawing application tracks movements of the index finger, allowing the user to access their email account with the drawing of an ‘@’ sign and a gestural camera allows photos to be taken when the ‘framing’ gesture is detected. The gadget is also able to augment physical objects to portray additional information (SixthSense, 2009) (Figures 5.1 and 5.2).

Certain gestural interfaces, like Microsoft’s Kinect, use a peripheral embedded with a small camera to capture gestural information. However, this limits the sensitivity and performance of the interface at short distances. In order to overcome such limits, cameras need to be set far behind the screen, but this then makes the interface bulky and expensive (Salton, 2009). Developments are being made to alter gestural interfaces into a thin LCD device – such as a mobile device – and to enable interaction without gloves or devices. Although still in its development phase, gestural mobile devices are slowly being introduced into the market. These products are equipped with gesticulation-sensitive interfaces that enable the user to flip through a photo gallery, or zoom in and out using a fist (Shankland, 2011). The future of gestural interfaces may come in ...