PART II
FROM PROJECT TO SCHEDULE
CHAPTER 3
GETTING STARTED: ESTIMATES, STAKEHOLDERS, AND SCOPE
3.1 INITIAL PROJECT ESTIMATES
Project selection decisions rely on limited data regarding the proposed project. Since the project has not yet started, the data used for project selection comes from estimates of the overall cost and schedule. Once the project has been selected, it is useful to confirm the overall level of financial, time, and resource commitment that will be needed to complete the project. The difficulty with such a confirmation is that at the stage of the process after the project is selectedâthe project scope is not well known. A detailed estimate of the project requires significant time and effort to produce and requires a thorough analysis and determination of scope, resources, and timing in order to develop. The irony of project estimating is that project sponsors, such as senior management, desire to know the required level of commitment at the earliest stage of the project. Unfortunately, this is at the point in the project when the least amount of information is available. By the time all information is availableâit is likely that the time window for an advance decision has passed. How should project managers address this conundrum?
3.2 THE ROM ESTIMATE
The Rough Order of Magnitude (or ROM) estimate is a path forward for estimating projects at the earliest stages of the process. Although it is true that all estimates are wrong (otherwise they would not be estimates!), ROM estimates are known to be more wrong than other methods of project estimates. In fact, ROM estimates may be in error by as much as 50 to 100 percent. In spite of the lack of accuracy, ROM estimates are very useful for determining the scale of the overall effort. The term âorder of magnitudeâ refers to powers of 10. For example, powers of 10 from 1 (101) through 6 (106) represent the numbers 10, 100, 1000, 10,000, 100,000, and 1,000,000. The scale of the estimate is that which proves useful to the project manager and the project sponsor in the earliest phases of the project life cycle. The scale of the project often stated in terms of order of magnitude informs sponsors and project team members alike whether the project is a commitment for $100,000.00 or a $1,000,000. Even if the estimate produced by the ROM differs significantly from the actual resultâthe scale of the estimate is likely to be accurate. A ROM estimate therefore answers the question, âWhat level of investment are we really about to sign up to?â Based on the strategic direction of the company, the result of a ROM may trigger the start of the development of a project plan.
3.3 STARTING A PLAN WITH A PROJECT SCHEDULE
A complete project plan includes all knowledge areas within the planning process group. However, a schedule, in contrast to a complete plan, is focused on âwhat?â âwhen?â and âhow much?â The schedule therefore is a useful start for beginning the development of a complete project plan. Once the schedule is in placeâthe rationale for the elements of the complete project plan begins to come into clear focus. Like the complete project plan, the schedule is developed using processes from the initiating and planning process group. However, the project schedule includes only a portion of the integration knowledge area as well as the complete scope, time, and cost knowledge areas. A completed schedule provides a reasonable checkpoint for making a âGo/No-Goâ decision for spending the resources for developing a complete project plan thereby providing a sound rationale for starting first with a project scheduleâthen continuing on to a full project plan. A schedule requires more time and effort to develop than a high-level ROM estimate, but considerably less effort than a complete project plan. Also, it may be desirable to plan and complete only a phase of a project, learn more about the level of difficulty and cost, and then proceed further to develop a complete plan. In either case, laying out the what, who, and how much elements of a plan lays down a significant foundation to a complete planning effort.
3.4 START IT! GETTING WORK STARTED WITH THE INITIATION PROCESS GROUP
Starting a project is straightforward when the objective is known upfront. This is a likely occurrence in a contractual situationâfor exampleâwhen a client agrees to pay a specific amount over a period of time for the delivery of a detailed SOW (Statement of Work). Unfortunately, this is a luxury that not all project teams enjoy. In the case of a project initiated for the purpose of creating and fleshing out a product concept for the ultimate launch to the marketplace, the initial objective or project scope may initially lack clarity. In these situationsâone of the first activities assigned to the project team would be to develop the project scope. The scope and the charter therefore becomes a âchicken-and-eggâ situation. In some cases, the scope is clear, in other cases, the scope at this stage is just an idea in need of a project team to fully develop. In either case, the project begins with the project charter.
3.4.1 WHAT IS A PROJECT CHARTER AND WHY IS IT NEEDED?
Projects, being temporary organizations, need special authorization in order to get the work of the project done. Projects acquire people from departments or from outside the organization, and they spend money as they develop deliverables. Since project teams are temporary organizations operating outside of the functional organization structure, they must be formally authorized. This then is the purpose of the project charterâ...