Imagine the life of a new employee at a Fortune Global 1000 firm in the year 2020.
Welcome to the 2020 workplace! If you think this scenario is farfetched, think again.
In the year 2020, our office will be everywhere; our team members will live halfway around the world. How, where, when, and for whom we work will be up to us—as long as we produce results. By the year 2020, the rules of the employee-employer contract will have to be rewritten by the best employers if they are to compete for top talent.
After interviewing, researching, and speaking with people at scores of companies, as well as with members of the four generations currently in the workplace, we have identified ten forces that will define the new world of work in 2020. These forces will impact the lives of all those who work, whether they work in large companies, midsize not-for-profit firms, or public organizations.
Companies will experience the most daunting challenges as they compete for the best talent in 2020 in order to maximize their organizations’ success. Senior executives, keenly aware that the world around them is changing and already recruiting a new breed of employee, must adapt their workplace policies to appeal to all generations. By looking at the road maps of birthrates, technological changes, social behaviors, and the evolution of the knowledge economy, we observe ten global forces at work in the workplace to come in 2020.
1. SHIFTING WORKFORCE DEMOGRAPHICS
Shifting U.S. Demographics
As we examine the shifting demographics of the U.S. workforce, we see the following:
- The number of U.S. workers over the age of 40 has increased significantly: 51 percent of the U.S. workforce in 2010 is expected to be 40 years of age or older, a 33 percent increase since 1980.2
- The number of workers aged 55 years and older will grow from 13 percent of the labor force in 2000 to 20 percent in 2020.3
- At the same time, Millennials (individuals born between 1977 and 1997) will be entering the workforce in record numbers. While they currently represent 22 percent of all workers, by 2014 they will make up almost 47 percent of the workforce.4
- The gender composition will also change, as more women are entering the workforce and staying in it.5
- Finally, Latinos, who currently make up 15 percent of the U.S. population, will account for up to 30 percent of the U.S. population by 2050.6
Taken together, these shifts will present significant challenges and opportunities. How companies prepare for these changes will be crucial to attracting, developing, and keeping top talent.
A Worldwide Shift in Demographics
The United States is not the only country facing a major shift in demographics, as the birth of Baby Boomers, those born between the years 1946 and 1964, was a global phenomenon following World War II. In Europe, the current aging of the population, combined with a significant falloff in fertility rates, has translated into a 1 percent decline in the overall population during the 2000–2010 decade. After 2010, the trend is projected to accelerate over the next forty years, with Germany, Italy, and Spain all expected to experience population declines ranging from 14 to 25 percent, according to the United Nations Population Division.7
These demographic trends are producing a workforce that is both aging and shrinking. It is estimated that in 2020 Germany will have a workforce that is 20 percent smaller than it was in 2000 and a retired population that is 50 percent larger.8
In many Asian countries the demographic situation is similar to or more pronounced than that seen in Europe. Fertility rates in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, and China are all well below the replacement level. Consequently, estimates indicate that major East Asian countries will also face a sizable reduction in their working population over the next half century. For example, in Japan the working-age population has already peaked, with 3 million fewer workers in 2010 than in 2005. And in China, which has four times the population of the United States, the situation is much the same. By 2030, China will have nearly as many senior citizens aged 65 or older as children aged 15 and younger.9 In the global economy, shifts happening globally will impact how and where companies in all countries source new talent.
What Will the Workforce Look Like in 2020?
In the United States, recent data show that older workers are staying in their jobs longer or returning after retiring. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that 56 percent of those 65 and older now work full-time, as compared to 44 percent thirteen years ago. In addition, the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project reports that half of all working adults in the United States between the ages of 50 and 64 say they will delay retirement, and anoth...