The 2020 Workplace

Jeanne C. Meister, Karie Willyerd

• Publisher: HarperCollins e-books
• Year: 2010
• ISBN:
  9780061992353
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Gestione delle risorse umane
• Index: Business

From well-respected human resources and corporate training experts Jeanne C. Meister and Karie Willyerd, a must-read guide to the innovative strategies that the best companies are using to create a workplace that the best talent chooses—both today and in 2020. In The 2020 Workplace, Meister and Willyerd offer a battle plan to start winning tomorrow's employees today.

PART I

The Changing Workplace

CHAPTER ONE

Ten Forces Shaping the Future Workplace Now

Imagine the life of a new employee at a Fortune Global 1000 firm in the year 2020.

The alarm in her apartment starts out quietly, easing Katya into the morning with the latest release from her favorite musician. After sixty seconds, the alarm asks Katya if she is awake. “Barely,” Katya mumbles in response.

“Okay,” her alarm answers. “I’ll let you rest another two minutes before checking in again.”

“Make it five,” Katya replies.

“I shouldn’t have stayed up so late last night,” she thinks, “not on the night before my first day of work.” Who would have guessed that José, her best friend from childhood, was going to be in town? If her phone hadn’t alerted her that José’s phone was within ten miles, she would never have known. Serendipity, a program that matched her social networking profiles with those of others with similar interests, also alerted her that a close match had just moved into the same apartment building. After she and José checked out Elisa’s profile, the three of them headed out to play the latest version of Celebrity City. Wearing their Cisco virtual-world contacts, they had tracked down five virtual celebrities. Her last one, John Lennon, had been worth 1,000 points and put her on the leaderboard. And that reminded her: she needed to bring along her virtual-world contacts for her new-hire orientation that morning.

“Well,” the apartment alarm observed, “I see you are out of bed. Shall I turn on the morning news and start the espresso machine?”

“Sure,” Katya replied, contacts in hand as she headed off to the bathroom to get ready.

Today, finally, was her first day of work at D&Y, one of the Big Two auditors. In her eighth year of schooling, D&Y had visited her middle school and talked to her about what was involved in pursuing a career in auditing. She’d had an education consultant from D&Y assigned to her well before she attended university, and they’d had a monthly video chat on Facebook to discuss her progress and whether D&Y still fit into her plans. Katya was also interested in nanobiotechnology, but in the end she’d decided a career in auditing at D&Y was a better fit.

In her freshman year at university, Katya shadowed a manager at D&Y. Then, after her third year, Katya spent the summer at the firm’s office in Romania before accepting a full-time position at the end of the summer. Because Katya had a high grade point average at university, she was eligible to perform community service, spending three months in Tanzania before starting work at D&Y.

Glancing up at the instant messaging section on the monitor on the wall, she noticed that a few of her new coworkers were IM’ing as they also got ready. Sophie, already one of her best friends, was looking forward to meeting up later in the day.

“Breakfast is ready!” her apartment monitor cheerfully announced, so she headed toward the kitchen to grab a fresh egg sandwich and her coffee to have on the way to work.

The human resources meeting was blissfully short. She ran her thumbprint and mobile phone under a scanner, which confirmed her citizenship and uploaded all her data to her custom benefits plan. For the next few hours, a series of managers presented the projects and jobs she could consider for her first assignment. Potential managers described their working styles, their commitment to the careers of new recruits, and the exciting work they had to offer. Katya especially liked the presentation by Bhaskar in Hyderabad and pulled out her smart phone so she could search the internal company social network to see how other new employees had rated Bhaskar and what they had to say, along with his 360-degree manager review.

“Not bad,” she thought as she looked over a presentation he had done for a client in the nanobiotechnology field. That would allow her to merge both her interests, and besides, if it didn’t work out, D&Y’s promise was that she could select her first three jobs, so she would be able to explore a few fields before settling in a bit. “WDYT,” she IM’d Sophie, wondering what her new friend thought of the idea. Sophie, sitting next to her, quickly IM’d back “G4I” to show her support.*

Three learning programs, each two minutes long, popped up on her smart phone while she listened to the next potential manager. She responded while she updated her employee record, verifying completion of the learning programs. After the managers completed their presentations, she put on her headphones and virtual-world contacts to watch a job preview by each manager. By lunchtime, she had selected and won Bhaskar as her new manager.¹

Welcome to the 2020 workplace! If you think this scenario is farfetched, think again.

In the year 2020, our office will be everywhere; our team members will live halfway around the world. How, where, when, and for whom we work will be up to us—as long as we produce results. By the year 2020, the rules of the employee-employer contract will have to be rewritten by the best employers if they are to compete for top talent.

After interviewing, researching, and speaking with people at scores of companies, as well as with members of the four generations currently in the workplace, we have identified ten forces that will define the new world of work in 2020. These forces will impact the lives of all those who work, whether they work in large companies, midsize not-for-profit firms, or public organizations.

Companies will experience the most daunting challenges as they compete for the best talent in 2020 in order to maximize their organizations’ success. Senior executives, keenly aware that the world around them is changing and already recruiting a new breed of employee, must adapt their workplace policies to appeal to all generations. By looking at the road maps of birthrates, technological changes, social behaviors, and the evolution of the knowledge economy, we observe ten global forces at work in the workplace to come in 2020.

1. SHIFTING WORKFORCE DEMOGRAPHICS

Shifting U.S. Demographics

As we examine the shifting demographics of the U.S. workforce, we see the following:

• The number of U.S. workers over the age of 40 has increased significantly: 51 percent of the U.S. workforce in 2010 is expected to be 40 years of age or older, a 33 percent increase since 1980.²
• The number of workers aged 55 years and older will grow from 13 percent of the labor force in 2000 to 20 percent in 2020.³
• At the same time, Millennials (individuals born between 1977 and 1997) will be entering the workforce in record numbers. While they currently represent 22 percent of all workers, by 2014 they will make up almost 47 percent of the workforce.⁴
• The gender composition will also change, as more women are entering the workforce and staying in it.⁵
• Finally, Latinos, who currently make up 15 percent of the U.S. population, will account for up to 30 percent of the U.S. population by 2050.⁶

Taken together, these shifts will present significant challenges and opportunities. How companies prepare for these changes will be crucial to attracting, developing, and keeping top talent.

A Worldwide Shift in Demographics

The United States is not the only country facing a major shift in demographics, as the birth of Baby Boomers, those born between the years 1946 and 1964, was a global phenomenon following World War II. In Europe, the current aging of the population, combined with a significant falloff in fertility rates, has translated into a 1 percent decline in the overall population during the 2000–2010 decade. After 2010, the trend is projected to accelerate over the next forty years, with Germany, Italy, and Spain all expected to experience population declines ranging from 14 to 25 percent, according to the United Nations Population Division.⁷

These demographic trends are producing a workforce that is both aging and shrinking. It is estimated that in 2020 Germany will have a workforce that is 20 percent smaller than it was in 2000 and a retired population that is 50 percent larger.⁸

In many Asian countries the demographic situation is similar to or more pronounced than that seen in Europe. Fertility rates in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, and China are all well below the replacement level. Consequently, estimates indicate that major East Asian countries will also face a sizable reduction in their working population over the next half century. For example, in Japan the working-age population has already peaked, with 3 million fewer workers in 2010 than in 2005. And in China, which has four times the population of the United States, the situation is much the same. By 2030, China will have nearly as many senior citizens aged 65 or older as children aged 15 and younger.⁹ In the global economy, shifts happening globally will impact how and where companies in all countries source new talent.

What Will the Workforce Look Like in 2020?

In the United States, recent data show that older workers are staying in their jobs longer or returning after retiring. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that 56 percent of those 65 and older now work full-time, as compared to 44 percent thirteen years ago. In addition, the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project reports that half of all working adults in the United States between the ages of 50 and 64 say they will delay retirement, and anoth...