CHAPTER
1
Socialist Ends, Capitalist Means
IN 1977 THE UNITED STATES LAUNCHED THE VOYAGER SPACE probe with the goal of explaining planet Earth to the residents of other galaxies. Aboard was a gold-plated phonograph record, bearing greetings from UN Secretary-General (and former Nazi officer) Kurt Waldheim, as well as a sample of our music: Chuck Berryās Johnny B. Goode and three pieces by Bach. We donāt know what the space aliens might have made of this. Saturday Night Live reported that we received a message back: Send more Chuck Berry. For his part, William F. Buckley thought that three selections from Bach was rather like boasting, but if so this was remedied by Jimmy Carterās lugubrious message: āThis is a present from a small, distant world⦠We are attempting to survive our time so we may live into yours.ā
Notwithstanding its provenance, there wasnāt anything particularly American about what was on the record. Suppose, then, that you were charged with selecting a single text (this time on a flash drive) to explain America to Kurt Vonnegutās Tralfamadorians. Would it be the Constitution? The Declaration of Independence? The Gettysburg Address? Very reasonable suggestions, all of them, but Iād choose a much-derided childrenās novel by Horatio Alger, Ragged Dick. The book is never read today, which is a shame, since it is as witty as anything by Mark Twain and Algerās street-sharp urchin provides a fascinating look at the streets and slang of nineteenth century New York. Dick has the wiles to escape the con manās snares, but he isnāt a thief and has a personal code of honor. Heās also ambitious and smart enough to profit from the bookās simple messages: that all labor is respectable, that poverty is no bar to advancement, that getting ahead requires education and saving oneās money.
Those unfashionable messages, and not a lack of literary merit, explain why the book is scorned today. It celebrates, unabashedly, the traditional American virtues of open-handedness, pluck, and optimism. Mostly, itās a book about mobility, about making it in a country that welcomed those who wished to get ahead; and that message, not the Constitution or the Declaration, is at the heart of the idea of America. A boy with Dickās drive, intelligence and honesty would make his way where others lagged behind, for mobility wasnāt the same thing as equality of outcome.
Ragged Dick is very much an American hero. Other cultures donāt celebrate the rags-to-riches arriviste as Americans do. In France, MoliĆØreās Le bourgeois gentilhomme mocked middle class pretentions, and HonorĆ© de Balzac told us that great fortunes which came out of nowhere were built on crime. The English gave us āill-bredā and ābounder,ā words never heard in America. For the lowly born Pip, the dream of advancement was a cruel snare in Charles Dickensā Great Expectations. Not surprisingly, things were worse still in Russia, and in Dostoyevskyās Raskolnikov the desire to rise bred a murderous resentment.
Even in America, twentieth century writers lost faith in economic mobility. F. Scott Fitzgerald seemed to agree with Balzac about the criminal origins of new money, since the Great Gatsbyās wealth came from illegal bootlegging. As for the promise of economic success, Arthur Miller lectured audiences on its hollowness. But America was a mobile society for most of the twentieth century, and during Horatio Algerās timeāthe late nineteenth centuryāa good many people followed Ragged Dickās path up the ladder. More recently, however, the ladder has been rolled up, and Algerās America is another country. The level of income inequality today is higher than at any time in the last 90 years. Thereās even less mobility in America than in most First World countries. Thatās new, and it will transform American politics.
Weāve already seen this, in the 2012 presidential election, and even more so in the 2016 presidential campaign. The anger expressed by the voters, their support for candidates from far outside the traditional political class, has little parallel in American history. From the Left there have been protest movements in the past, but what weāve seen on the Right is new and amounts to an entire repudiation of complacent establishment Republicans. Presidential candidates who in years past might have seemed shoo-ins have faltered, their places taken by a more rambunctious set of outsiders who communicate through their brashness, their rudeness, their belief that we are in crisis. To their more polite critics they say: We are not so nice as you!
The Republican establishment seeks to persuade voters of its essential niceness, but niceness has not closed the deal. On measures of freedom provided by respected conservative and libertarian think tanks, the United States has fallen like a rock (down to twelfth for the Heritage Foundation, sixteenth for the Cato Institute). Once the country of promise, America now lags behind many of its First World rivals on measures of economic mobility and has spawned an aristocracy. A broken education system, a dysfunctional immigration law, a decline in the rule of law, and a supercharged regulatory state have rolled up the ladder on which the Ragged Dicks of years gone by climbed. Voters across the spectrum demand radical change, and yet the Republican establishment seems content with minimal goals at a time of maximal crisis. Rejecting the Party establishment, the Republican insurgent might hope for less conservative heart, more conservative spleen.
The Republican insurgent has a vision of the good society that is not so different from that of the old-fashioned liberal of fifty years ago. For both, the goal is a society of opportunity, where all may rise, where weāre judged by the content of our character, where class distinctions were something we left behind in the countries we came from. Unlike the modern liberal or progressive, however, the Republican insurgent believes that the best way to get there is through free markets, open competition, the removal of wasteful government barriers. The Republican insurgent pursues socialist ends through capitalist means.
The Left has complained of inequality. What rankles the Republican insurgent, however, is immobility, and in particular the idea that it might result from a set of unjust rules that advantage a new class of aristocrats. We might be prepared to accept the fact of deep income inequality if we thought that everyone stood the same chance of getting ahead, and that people were sorted out by their abilities. Ragged Dick is a desperately poor, orphaned bootblack, but heās accepted as an equal by his wealthy friend, Frank Whitney, and weāre led to believe that theyāll end up in the same place. Henry Fosdick, honest and intelligent but lacking Dickās ambition, will find himself a rung down on the scale. The Hibernian Johnny Nolan, honest but lacking in both intelligence and ambition, will end up yet another rung down. Those at the very bottom are not even honest, and an unpleasant end is prophesized for them. But what if weāre not like that anymore? What if todayās Ragged Dick lags behind, his place at the top taken by those who have gamed the system, whose wealth is founded upon illicit advantages? If thatās the case, if America offers no better opportunities for advancement than other countries, then the core understanding of American Exceptionalism will have been lost.
This would be a tragedy, for income inequality and immobility are serious problems, and weād all want to return to the levels of income equality and mobility of 50 years ago, if we could leave everything else the same, if we could do so without cost. That might seem impossible, for most of the things which have been profferedāfree trade barriers, massive tax hikes and the likeāwould be enormously costly. But then there are other solutions which would give us an economy both wealthier and more just, an entrepreneurial society in which people would have a better chance of getting ahead. Weād all want to go thereāunless we were one of Americaās aristocrats.
Things We Canāt Change
As an ideal, income mobility wasnāt there at the countryās formation, but emerged later when Lincoln and the Civil War gave America a new birth of freedom, in which the opportunity to rise above oneās station came to define the countryās promise. If one had to pick the crucial moment it would be a little-known speech by Abraham Lincoln at an agricultural fair in 1859, when he worked out the implications of the Declaration of Independence in a country that was still half slave. From this everything else followed, the Civil War, the land grant colleges, the open door policy for immigrants, Ragged Dickās America.
Today, however, the United States is a highly unequal society and, what is far worse, a highly immobile society as well. Jobs have expanded at the very top and bottom of the economy, while middle class jobs have cratered. Thatās regrettable, for countries with greater economic equality have higher levels of civic participation and personal trust. People feel better about each other when the game doesnāt seem to be rigged against them. Theyāre also happier and less likely to support demagogues who promise greater equality but would restrict political freedom and threaten the rule of law to attain it. Finally, inequality and immobility are unjust when they result from special favors the government grants to its political friends and cronies.
So weād want more income equality and mobility. Easier said than done, however. People on the Left have argued that inequality might go away if we could only raise taxes on the rich. However, the top U.S. marginal rates for individuals and corporations are amongst the steepest in the world, and capital gains taxes here are much higher than the First World average. Attacks on greed arenāt going to do very much either. The acquisitive instinct (to give it a less emotionally charged name) is coded in the DNA of the species, and I havenāt heard of plans to rewire our brains to eliminate it. In any event, as greed is ubiquitous, it canāt explain why thereās more immobility in America than elsewhere.
Nor are there any magic fixes in our welfare system, which is one of the most generous in the world. Not only is this a pretty good country to be poor in, but people at the bottom rung in America are amongst the richest people in the world. Moreover, the kinds of welfare improvements that get proposed are often self-defeating. For example, increasing the minimum wage would benefit some workers at the margin, but would also hasten the trend to automation, with store clerks replaced by check-out kiosks. Between 2007 and 2009 a Democratic Congress raised the minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25 an hour, this as the economy plummeted and unemployment skyrocketed. Thereās no persuasive evidence that the higher minimum wage did workers any good.
Then thereās the move to an information economy, free trade, and globalization. In the recent past, good jobs awaited high school grads on the assembly lines and in the factories of America, jobs that gave people a solid and secure footing in the middle class. Those jobs, however, are increasingly a casualty of an economy that requires higher levels of skill. High-tech jobs have increased in number, while low-skilled jobs are disappearing. In addition, free trade has moved low-tech jobs to countries with lower labor costs, while at the same time increasing the number of high-skilled jobs in America. Globalization brings Third World people into the middle class, but shrinks the First Worldās middle class.
We might not like what this has done to income equality and mobility, but thereās not a lot weād want to do about it. Or could do. We canāt smash our computers, the way that 19th century Luddites smashed cotton looms, and expect weād be doing anything other than shipping more jobs offshore. The same goes for free trade. Lower trade barriers have greatly strengthened the economy and increased the number of jobs overall, as American companies became better able to meet the challenge of foreign competition. A retreat from free trade would also encourage firms to incur the deadweight losses of lobbying for sweetheart trade barriers from politicians, in order to protect the firms from foreign competition.
There are also several reasons why weād never expect to see perfect income mobility between generations. First, it always helps to have the head start that wealthy parents give one: better schools, better networks, better first jobs. Thatās why countries with high levels of income inequality are also countries with low levels of income mobility. From rich parents, rich kids. Second, and relatedly, the environment in which children are raised matters. Children raised by wealthy parents are less likely to come from broken homes, and will learn by example to value education. Compared to poor children, theyāre exposed to a much higher social and cultural environment. In addition, thereās a developing empirical literature suggesting that the personal qualities (āphenotypes,ā for the geneticist) that are correlated with economic success are heritable. That is, weād expect to see some correlation between the personal (phenotypic) attributes of parents and children.1 A lot of things we thought to be random or a product of our environment seem now to be inherited, and this might also be true of the things which make people wealthy. If Lady Gaga was born that way, why not the rich?
Legacy Nation
A degree of aristocracy is thus to be expected in any society, and not merely expected but also natural. We are apt to think that economic inequalities are self-correcting, self-arighting, but itās not so; and the natural rights lawyer who said that all men are equal lied to us. Instead, equality cuts against the grain, and what is natural are differences, the differences between rich and poor, high and low. What is natural is aristocracy, the natural default position of any society, and not just aristocracy but a hereditary aristocracy. What is unnatural, unexpected, anomalous, the briefest of interludes in the worldās long history of class distinctions, is Ragged Dickās America.
For a hereditary aristocracy to arise, only two things are needed, common to all of us: a bequest motive and relative preferences. The bequest motive is simply the desire to see our children do well, a sentiment that does not require an evolutionary explanation, but one which I nevertheless provide in Chapter 13. We are hard-wired to seek to pass on our genes, and this means that, like Deuteronomy, we distinguish between strangers and brothers.2 Weāll be willing to incur enormous sacrifices for children and near relatives, but for strangers to whom we are not related we have only a constrained sympathy. What that will leave us with is a world of family ties and the thick nepotism where sons succeed fathers in politics, business, Hollywood, art, and music.
The bequest motive is one of the strongest human impulses, stronger even than the instinct for self-preservation. We read of parents who give up their lives to save their children, and marvel at this. But would we have done anything else? We were told we were members of a āmeā generation, but itās not so. Instead, we sacrifice for our children, only dimly aware of the costs we incur in doing so, unless perhaps we recall how our parents sacrificed for us. If we should then want to see our children end up on top, in an aristocratic society, is that so very surprising?
The second needed thing, for an aristocracy, is relative preferences. We have absolute preferences when we want something, and relative preferences when we also want more of it than the other fellow. And as we wish well for our children, given the bequest motive, we would want them to fare better than other peopleās children, given relative preferences. We would be willing to accept a poorer world, so long as our children end up on top. We might even prefer a world that leaves our children worse off, so long as everyone else fares worse still.
Thatās enough to kick-start an aristocracy. But for an aristocracy to persist over time, its members must be able to identify each other and form an alliance against the new men who wish to rise. Through their schools, their neighborhoods, their politics, they must be able to recognize each other. And of course the members of Americaās elite can do so. Theyāll have gone to Harvard, not Podunk U. Theyāll live in Wesley Heights D.C., and not Manassas VA. Theyāll subscribe to liberal politics and abhor the Tea Party. In all of this theyāll recognize each other as members of a New Class that constitutes the countryās elite and frames its policies, and in this way a society of peers and peasants has replaced Horatio Algerās country of equal opportunity.
Rising inequality in American has been blamed on the āone percent,ā the people in the top income centile making more than $400,000 a year. For those making less than that, bumper stickers on cars proclaim their drivers to be members of the 99 percent. The distinction between the two groups is useful, since income tax data permits us to identify the one percent. We know what they earn, what their jobs are and how they came by their money. They can serve as proxies for inequality generally. In truth, however, the one percent includes a very disparate group of people, the entrepreneurial gazillionaire and the car dealer making just a bit more than $400,000 a year. But it also includes members of the New Class whose unearned privileges...