Part I
Perspectives on past and future international powers
Bridget Lewis, Rowena Maguire and Charles Sampford1
Context of the collection
This book examines the effect of emerging economies on international legal rules, institutions and processes. There is widespread interest in seeking to understand how changing global economic conditions will impact upon and influence change in other areas. The full ramifications of this change are not yet known as we are currently still in the early period of transition. What is clear is that a wider range of nations will start to exert greater influence on the development of international policy, although how these nations will shape future international legal policy is not yet certain. This collection seeks to make a modest contribution to this discussion by tracing the history of dominant past and predicted future powers, examining the influence of emerging economies on particular international regimes and considering how various legal norms have evolved and are evolving within this current climate.
The title of the book is Shifting Global Powers. The focus of the book is to examine a range of different types of power that exist at the international level. While power can be associated with a wide range of actions, this collection focuses on three main types of power: political power, economic power and moral authority as power. The shift in political power involves consideration of a period of decline for the United States concurrent with the establishment of new alliances at the international level. Economic growth brings economic power and the increasing interconnectedness of global economies is now seeing developed states dependent upon growth in developing or emerging economies. Moral authority or power is concerned with the ability of a nation to exert influence on the international legal order to reflect its values. There is overlap between these different types of power and many of the shifts occurring at the international level are a combination of these different types of power.
Discussions are taking place about the shift of power from the United States to China. This type of analysis envisages the replacement of one super power with another super power. However, rather than view the current shift as a move from one hegemon to another, this book contemplates that we are in fact approaching a period of multipolarity, a period in which we are likely to see a number of global powers. The political power explored in this collection relates to the creation of new power blocs or alliances within the international legal order. The best known of these blocs is referred to as the BRICS nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The BRICS acronym grew from a term coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill, who predicted the significance of the BRIC nations (without South Africa) to global economic trends at the beginning of the twenty-first century.2 Those nations came to adopt the moniker for themselves, forming a partnership for global stability and development. In 2010, the BRIC nations agreed to invite South Africa to join the alliance, which has since been known as BRICS.
Aside from the BRICS group of nations, a number of other states and groups of states are relevant to the emerging economy discourse, with some of these having particular influence in relation to specific areas of international affairs. Such nations include, for example, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and South Korea. Power is currently distributed at the international level according to the economic status of a state. Change in power is therefore associated with a change in economic position of states. There are a number of states worldwide that are currently in transition from developing country status to emerging economy status. These economies are experiencing significant growth, while traditional strong economies, particularly in Europe, are experiencing differing degrees of recession. The recovery of those countries in recession is dependent upon the health and growth of emerging economies, given the increased interconnectedness of global economic interests. With this stronger economic standing comes a degree of political freedom, as states are less reliant on foreign aid and less beholden to aid donors to support their international agendas. This book does not purport to list and track annual growth records of emerging nations, but rather to look at how states which are experiencing such economic growth are utilising the associated increase in political freedom and power.
Multilateral organisations such as the European Union and African Union are also proving to be centres of international influence. These organisations exert power both internally, as they seek to regulate the actions of their members states, and externally, as they advocate on behalf of their members to the broader international community. The BRICS alliance is therefore emerging during a period in which many other alliances exist. The BRICS group is a recent development on the international scene, and as such it is not yet clear if it is going to solidify as a multifaceted alliance or if its activities will be sporadic, dictated by the international issues of the day. It is also not clear whether a leader of the BRICS group will emerge, and whether this will result in fracturing within the group. Regardless of these uncertainties, however, it is clear that emerging economies are going to shape international policy much more directly in the future, even if current political alliances do not endure.
Another effect which can be seen in relation to shifts in global power dynamics is the impact of these shifts on states' domestic policies and priorities. States are realising the need to adapt their positions if they are to flourish in the new international arena. For example, in 2012 the Australian Government released a white paper on ‘Rising Asia’, which looked at the impact of regions in Asia where growth is expected and how it will impact on Australia. It identified a need for Australia to align its interests with emerging Asian economies in order to capitalise on new opportunities in the region. This effect is not isolated to Australia: nations around the world are identifying the impact that emerging economies will have and are grappling with the best way to adapt to these new changes.
Another form of global power which the book identifies is moral power. States which possess great economic and political power are often able to use it to promote their own values and embed them within the international legal framework. This effect can be seen in the development of international human rights law, with its strong foundation in Western liberal traditions promoted by the West at the time of its inception. As the global power balance shifts away from the West, alternative perspectives and differing value systems are given a stronger voice. These alternative perspectives then have the potential to shape the direction of international law in the future, particularly when groups of countries recognise a common interest and can harness their collective power to promote their shared values in international negotiations. The actions of the West in relation to their declared values are also more open to question. This has been seen in the criticism of the United States and its allies for their actions in Iraq, and the United States' position as a champion of human rights and individual liberties is increasingly under critical examination.
Overview of the chapters
Part I: Perspectives on past and future international powers
The book is divided into three main components. The chapters in Part I of this collection examine a range of legal, political and economic perspectives on dominant past and future state players within the international legal order. These perspectives lay the foundations for understanding the more specific normative or institutional changes discussed in Part II and Part III of the collection. Shirley V. Scott's chapter opens the collection by usefully reviewing the era of the United States (US) as a great world power. During the US Hegemony period it is possible to identify eight characteristics of international law and global governance of human rights. The eight characteristics clearly identified by Scott are: (1) state sovereignty as basis for participation; (2) rapid expansion of international law; (3) limitations on state sovereignty; (4) development of international courts and tribunals; (5) growing role for non-state actors; (6) treaty law as the dominant source of international law; (7) international law as a profession; and finally (8) portrayal of international law as something positive and rhetorically associated with human rights and justice. Scott's work sets the scene and allows readers to understand the nature of our international legal order during US hegemony. An understanding of the present and the past helps us reflect upon the significance and pace of change within international legal order. The increasing connectedness of states as a result of globalisation has taken place under an international regime heavily influenced by US values. The impact of globalisation on the legal system has seen international law spread into areas previously considered as being in sole consideration of individual state sovereign jurisdiction. The increasing influence of BRICS nations may well mean further incursions into state sovereign rights in priority areas of BRICS nations. Alternatively power held by BRICS nations may slow the rapid expansion of international law with this group seeking to restore rights to sovereign states.
Charles Sampford's chapter discusses the dream (or, more strictly, two dreams) and the nightmare scenarios. It indicates the reasons why the latter can be avoided even if the first remains unlikely. It argues the importance of the role and nature of other powers to world order. He suggests that, if the US are not prepared to take a lead in creating a rules-based legal order, they should and can do so – and it is in their interests to do so. America should be a natural leader in this process, taking part in a global dialogue just as they did in the transatlantic dialogue during the late eighteenth century.
Ross P. Buckley's chapter explores the rise of China and the anticipated role of East Asian economies in future international economic governance. Consideration of economic governance arrangements is of fundamental importance to understanding the driving force of the shift of power at the international level. Power at the international level has been and is continuing to be distributed on the basis of economic strength. China's legendary economic growth has occurred to date within an international economic regime largely shaped by US influence (Washington Consensus policies). China's growth cannot however be attributed to the Washington Consensus policies. Traditionally China has had limited voice within global economic and financial governance. This has changed recently with China advocating for change of the global reserve currency from the US dollar. The i...