The Former Yugoslavia at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

A Guide to the Economies in Transition

Ian Jeffries

• Publisher: Taylor & Francis
• Year: 2002
• eBook ISBN: 9781134460496
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business General
• Index: Business

This book focuses on the recent political and economic events in the former Yugoslavia.The author presents a clear, detailed and accessible breakdown of the developments in: Bosnia-Hercegovina, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Slovenia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro). The role of the West in the mor

1 Bosnia-Hercegovina

POLITICS

Events prior to the Dayton peace accords are dealt with in the Introduction and Overview.

Dayton and its aftermath

1 November 1995: the peace settlement talks begin at the Wright–Patterson Air Base near Dayton, Ohio, USA.

8 November 1995: the USA and Russia announce that a Russian combat brigade (about 1,500 troops) will participate in the implementation force as part of a US division. The Russian commander will take orders from the US division commander, who will, in turn, take orders from General George Joulwan in his capacity as supreme commander of US forces in Europe rather than as supreme Nato (allied) military commander in Europe. The question of overall political control of the peacekeeping operation remains.

The first step was taken on 15 October 1995, when a Russian General Staff delegation, led by Colonel General Leontiy Shevtsov, arrived at my headquarters in Brussels … We developed a special arrangement that placed the Russian contingent under my command, through General Shevtsov, who would serve as my deputy for Russian forces … The Russian force operates within the boundaries of Multi-National Division (North). The commander, Major-General Bill Nash of the US army, does not have the authority to assign it missions or tasks. However, he can exercise tactical, or day-to-day, control of its duties.

(General George Joulwan, IHT, 30 April 1996, p. 8)

9 November 1995: it is announced that the economic embargo on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is to be eased slightly to permit the delivery of natural gas from Russia for home heating purposes.

10 November 1995: an agreement is signed which strengthens the Federation of Bosnia and Hercegovina. Warren Christopher describes the accord as giving the federation ‘the power to govern effectively’ by creating common political and economic institutions. Mostar is to be reintegrated and more conducive conditions created for the return of refugees.

21 November 1995: the peace agreement is initialled by Presidents Izetbegovic, Tudjman and Milosevic. (The formal signing ceremony will be held in early December.) The main points are as follows:

1. Bosnia is to be preserved as a single state within its present borders and with international recognition. (The name of the country is to be changed from ‘the Republic of Bosnia-Hercegovina’ to ‘Bosnia and Hercegovina’.)
2. Bosnia is to comprise the Bosnian–Croat Federation and the Republika Srpska, with a ‘fair distribution of land between the two’ (51 per cent and 49 per cent respectively). (Of the 51 per cent, Dayton gives 27 per cent to the Moslems and 24 per cent to the Croats: The Economist, 20 January 1996, p. 24. The Bosnian Serbs control 50 per cent of the area, the Bosnian Moslems 30 per cent and the Bosnian Croats 20 per cent: Chris Hedges, IHT, 28 June 1997, p. 4.).
3. The capital city of Sarajevo is to be reunited under federal authority, though with ten districts. There is to be an ‘effective’ central government, including a national parliament, presidency, constitutional court and central bank. The presidency and parliament will be chosen through free and democratic elections held under international supervision. The three-member presidency (one to be a Bosnian Serb) will rotate, but the Bosnian–Croat Federation will provide the first president. The central authorities will be responsible for foreign policy, foreign trade, common and international communications, inter-entity transport, air traffic control, monetary policy, citizenship and immigration. (‘To counter the threat of financial instability, the authorities have decided that the new central bank will operate as a currency board for several years, issuing domestic currency only against full foreign exchange backing, and that there will be no domestic bank financing of public expenditure’: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 1996: 170.)
4. Refugees will be allowed to return to their homes. People will be able to move freely throughout Bosnia and the human rights ‘of every Bosnian citizen’ will be monitored by an independent commission and an internationally trained civilian police force.
5. Individuals charged with war crimes will be excluded from political and military life. Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia will co-operate fully in the investigation and prosecution of war crimes.
6. A land corridor will link Sarajevo and Gorazde.
7. The problem of Brcko and the Posavina corridor will be submitted to international arbitration. (The Bosnian Serbs were awarded the area in western Bosnia around Sipovo and Mrkonjic Grad which they lost in the summer of 1995.)
8. A ‘strong international force’ (a Nato implementation force) will supervise the separation of forces. (The Nato force was to number around 60,000, including some 20,000 US troops. In a 27 November speech advocating the sending of US troops President Clinton said that ‘this mission should and will take about one year’.)
9. On 22 November the UN Security Council announced that the arms embargo on the countries of the former Yugoslavia would be lifted over a six-month period and that economic sanctions on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia would be suspended (for six months in the first instance). (The agreement provides for a build-down of weapons by those who have a great many and a build-up of the undersupplied Bosnian army. The baseline is the present ‘determined holdings’ of the remnant Yugoslavia, made up mostly of Serbia. This well-armed force will be cut to 75 per cent of its existing baseline. Croatia will be entitled to 30 per cent of the baseline, the Bosnian Federation 20 per cent and the Bosnian Serbs 10 per cent. These ratios will require substantial upgrading of the Bosnian army, especially in heavy weapons: Anthony Lewis, IHT, 2 December 1995, p. 10. If Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia could not strike a deal by June 1996, a ratio of 5:2:2 respectively would be applied to weapons stocks. The Bosnian Federation would have two-thirds of Bosnia’s total and the Bosnian Serbs one-third: The Economist, 30 March 1996, p. 20.)
10. An international programme will provide humanitarian relief, assist rebuilding and help refugees.

(Officials of the Bosnian–Croat Federation include the following: president, Kresimir Zubak; vice-president, Ejup Ganic; prime minister, Izudin Kapetanovic; defence minister, Vladimir Soljic: Business Europa, June–July 1996, p. 28.)

30 November 1995: the UN Security Council votes to withdraw the last of the UN peacekeeping troops in Bosnia by 31 January 1996. (Those in Croatia are to be withdrawn by 15 January 1996, while the mandate for those in Macedonia is renewed for a further six months.)

Bosnia establishes diplomatic relations with Russia and Greece.

5 December 1995: the foreign and defence ministers of Nato give provisional approval to send some 60,000 troops to Bosnia (Ifor: Implementation Force for Bosnia; Operation Joint Endeavour). The only Nato country not to send troops is Iceland, which does not have an army.

The USA is to send roughly 20,000 troops, the UK 13,000 and France 10,000. Other countries participating are Austria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia (some 2,000 troops), Ukraine, Pakistan, Egypt and Malaysia (IHT, 6 December 1995, p. 8; 14 December 1995, p. 7).

6 December 1995: the German Bundestag approves the sending of 4,000 personnel. They are mostly transport, medical and logistics specialists (400 German paratroopers and infantry are to provide protection, but are not to take part in enforcing the separation lines).

8 December 1995: the Bosnian government pledges, in line with the Dayton accords, to remove all foreign Islamic fighters within thirty days of signing the peace agreement in Paris. (The USA and the UK in particular fear attacks on their troops.)

8–9 December 1995: the ‘peace implementation conference’ is held in London, dealing with civilian aspects. Carl Bildt is appointed ‘high representative’, whose functions are (1) to co-ordinate civilian aid and the reconstruction programme and (2) to act as liaison between the civilian and military operations. A Peace Implementation Council (a replacement for the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia) is to have a Steering Board comprising the G7 countries, Russia, the EU’s presidency, the European Commission and the Organization of Islamic Conference. An OSCE mission is to prepare and conduct elections, while the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is to be involved in that capacity. (The deputy ‘high representative’ of the Peace Implementation Council is Michael Steiner of Germany.)

The choice of Carl Bildt has been criticized. For example, a leader in the New York Times commented as follows:

Mr Bildt starts his new job burdened with a reputation for accepting Bosnian Serb claims of good behaviour at face value and overlooking evidence of atrocities against civilians. He mainly acquired that reputation when Bosnian Serb forces overran Srebrenica in July. He announced a deal allowing Red Cross access to the male civilians the Serbs said they were holding prisoner. But the Serbs had deceived him. The Red Cross visits never took place and thousands of the prisoners were killed … Mr Bildt … has surprisingly suggested that he intends to divide his calendar between Sweden and the Balkans. Bosnia is not a part-time job. If he cannot understand that, someone else should be found who can.

(IHT, 18 December 1995, p. 8)

12 December 1995: the two French pilots shot down on 30 August 1995 are released by the Bosnian Serbs.

The Bosnian Serbs hold a referendum in the Serb-held parts of Sarajevo asking whether they wish to come under federal control. There is a 99 per cent ‘no’ vote in a 91 per cent turnout, according to Bosnian Serb figures.

14 December 1995: the formal signing of the peace agreement takes place at the Elysée Palace in Paris. Bosnia-Hercegovina and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia formally grant each other diplomatic recognition.

15 December 1995: the UN Security Council approves the deployment of Ifor.

18 December 1995: a meeting starts near Bonn to discuss guidelines for disarmament.

20 December 1995: Nato formally takes over from the UN.

At a donors’ conference in Brussels (which finished the following day) a target of $518 million is set to cover urgent reconstruction in the first three months of 1996 (FT, 21 December 1995, p. 13).

Bosnia becomes a member of the IMF, which awards an emergency credit. (In line with the accords the IMF will have substantial powers over monetary policy, including the appointment of a central bank governor from outside the region: FT, 19 December 1995, p. 2.)

24 December 1995: the first batch of prisoners since the peace agreement was signed are exchanged between the Bosnian government and the Bosnian Serbs.

26 December 1995: the Bosnian Serbs ask Admiral Leighton Smith for an extension from 19 March 1996 to September 1996 of the deadline for transfer of control of their parts of Sarajevo to the federal government. (The request was formally turned down on 30 December. Admiral Smith from the USA is Nato’s commander in Bosnia, while General Michael Walker from Britain is Nato’s commander of ground forces in Bosnia.)

27 December 1995: Bosnian government and Bosnian Serb forces vacate designated front-line positions around Sarajevo before the midnight deadline.

2 January 1996: the Bosnian government complains to Ifor about the abduction by the Bosnian Serb police of Bosnian citizens travelling since Christmas through the Serb-held Sarajevo suburb of Ilidza. Ifor says it is a civilian matter. (There are also complaints about the slowness of Carl Bildt. He planned to be on holiday until 8 January but was ‘persuaded’ to arrive in Sarajevo on 3 January. He complained about the lack of funds to operate.)

The New York Times wrote in its leader column that:

Mr Bildt has been shockingly slow in taking up his duties. Although he insists that his other job as leader of Sweden’s parliamentary opposition will not distract him, he did not manage to arrive in Bosnia until late last week. Despite the evident danger to Bosnian civilians, Mr Bildt seems in no rush to assemble the international monitoring force that is supposed to oversee local law enforcement.

(IHT, 8 January 1996, p. 8)

3 January 1996: US defence secretary William Perry visits Bosnia.

4 January 1996: arms reduction talks begin in Vienna under the auspices of OSCE.

After the USA contacts Milosevic, the Bosnian Serbs release sixteen Bosnian citizens. The Bosnian government says that the seventeenth remains a captive and that three more citizens have been abducted.

Two Moslem policemen are shot at and wounded by Bosnian Croats in Mostar. (A Moslem youth was shot at and killed by the Bosnian Croat police on New Year’s day. A Bosnian Croat policeman was shot dead on 6 January. Nato troops from Spain began patrols.)

5 January 1996: the first Nato (Italian) soldier is deliberately shot at and wounded (by a sniper, thought to be Bosnian Serb, in Sarajevo).

6 January 1996: UN (British) troops return fire when a sniper targets them near Sanski Most.

8 January 1996: two Apache helicopters are deployed to patrol Sarajevo after small-arms attacks on aircraft using the airport.

9 January 1996: a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a Serb-held suburb of Sarajevo kills one person and injures others when a tram is hit. Nato troops return fire.

The official end of the Sarajevo aid airlift, which began on 3 July 1992.

13 January 1996: President Clinton visits Tuzla in Bosnia (where he meets US troops and Bosnian political and religious leaders) and Zagreb (the capital of Croatia).

19 January 1996: the deadline for withdrawal from the front lines is considered by Ifor to be generally met. There is also a deadline for the exchange of about 900 prisoners, but the exchange is far less satisfactory (about 220 of the prisoners are released). (The Bosnian government has been the most reluctant. On 15 January it postponed the first major exchange, demanding an explanation of what had happened to 24,742 people missing in Serb-held territory. About 4,000 are thought by the Bosnian government to be in detention, but the fate of the others is unknown, including some 5,000 men from Srebrenica: Chris Hedges, IHT, 16 January 1996, p. 6. The Red Cross estimated that there were 645 prisoners still being detained, 318 by the Bosnian government, 150 by the Bosnian Serbs and 177 by the Bosnian Croats: IHT, 25 January 1996, p. 6.)

21 January 1996: prime minister Haris Silajdzic announces that he is to resign (effective 30 January) because the Bosnian parliament has passed a law that reduces the number of ministers in the federal government from twelve to six (one of them without portfolio), thus weakening its authority. He is to be replaced by Hasan Muratovic, Bosnia’s minister for relations with Ifor.

24 January 1996: three Ifor troops (two Portuguese and one Italian) are killed in an accidental explosion at their base.

27 January 1996: around 380 prisoners are released by the Bosnian government and Bosnian Croats.

28 January 1996: seventy-four prisoners are released by the Bosnian Serbs (out of a planned 150) and seventy-six prisoners are released by the Bosnian government. (The Red Cross estimated that at least 112 prisoners were still being held. Sixty-three were considered war criminals by their captors and forty-nine were considered by the Red Cross to be held in breach of the peace agreement: IHT, 30 January 1996, p. 6.)

Three Nato (British) troops are killed when their armoured vehicle hits a mine.

1 February 1996: the Bridge of Brotherhood and Unity, connecting the two parts of Sarajevo, is reopened.

A Bosnian Serb sniper is shot dead by Nato (French) troops and another sniper is captured.

3 February 1996 (midnight): Ifor reports the satisfactory withdrawal of rival armed forces from the ‘areas of transition’ to be yielded. Ifor will take over and forty-five days will elapse before the rival forces are able to reoccupy these areas. (The Serb-held areas of Sarajevo caused the biggest problem. It was agreed that for forty-five days Bosnian Serb police would be permitted to remain on condition that they would be joined by non-Serb police and that they would be supervised by the international police task force. It was hoped that this would help prevent a mass exodus by Bosnian Serb civilians. Note that there has been difficulty in finding policemen for the international task force, planned to total 1,721.)

The first US soldier dies, killed in an accidental explosion.

7 February 1996: there is a riot by Bosnian Croats when the EU administrator outlines the plan for Mos...

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Tables
• Acknowledgements
• Introduction and Overview
• 1 Bosnia-Hercegovina
• 2 Croatia
• 3 The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
• 4 Slovenia
• 5 The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: Montenegro
• 6 The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: Serbia
• Postscript
• Bibliography