Deterring Terrorism

Theory and Practice

Andreas Wenger, Alex Wilner

• Publisher: Stanford Security Studies
• Year: 2012
• Print ISBN: 9780804782494, 9780804782487
• eBook ISBN: 9780804783477
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Terrorism
• Index: Politics & International Relations

During the Cold War, deterrence theory was the cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, however, popular wisdom dictated that terrorist organizations and radical fanatics could not be deterred—and governments shifted their attention to combating terrorism rather than deterring it.

This book challenges that prevailing assumption and offers insight as to when and where terrorism can be deterred. It first identifies how and where theories of deterrence apply to counterterrorism, highlighting how traditional and less-traditional notions of deterrence can be applied to evolving terrorist threats. It then applies these theoretical propositions to real-world threats to establish the role deterrence has within a dynamic counterterrorism strategy—and to identify how metrics can be created for measuring the success of terrorism deterrence strategies. In sum, it provides a foundation for developing effective counterterrorism policies to help states contain or curtail the terrorism challenges they face.

INDEX

Page numbers in italics refer to figures or tables.

Abbas, Mahmoud, 216, 221

Abdulmutallab, Umar Farouk, 81, 99–100

Abrahms, Max, 280

Achille Lauro hijacking, 210

Acquisition, of WMD materials: chlorine gas attacks and, 275–76, 286, 290; nuclear materials, 148–49, 172; radiological materials and, 198n4, 199n12; radiological terrorism and, 182–85, 191; strategic deterrence and, 311–12; uranium and, 297n68

Active counter-coercion, 97–101

Active sponsorship of terrorism, 254–55

Acton, James, 182

Acute radiation syndrome (ARS), 183, 187, 188, 194

Aerosolization, radiological materials and, 188, 199n31

Afghanistan, 77, 153, 156n29

Ahmadi, Rahman Haji, 243

Airplanes and airport security, 99–100, 109

Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, 205, 229

Almog, Doron, 27, 90, 143, 156n26

Alpha radiation, 184–85

Al Qaeda, 3, 4; broad versus narrow deterrence, 104–5; credibility of United States and, 131; decision-making processes in terrorist organizations and, 84; deterrence strategies and, 32, 33, 67–68, 147–51, 158n50; deterrence theory research and, 323; eradication of, 62; examples of influence models, 86–89; indirect deterrence, 23, 24–25; mass destruction and, 126–27; nuclear terrorism and, 10–11, 121, 122, 123, 134; passive counter-coercion and, 109; propaganda and, 124; public support for, 77–78; self-defense and, 124–25; state-sponsored terrorism and, 77; a systems view of, 68; U.S. counterterrorism policy and, 136–54

Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), 12, 274–75, 283–89, 317

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), 99–100, 145–46

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), 132

Al Shabaab, 112n18

Analytic doctrine, decision-making processes and, 89

Ansar al-Islam, 241, 242

Anthony, Robert, 25–26

Anti-proliferation strategies, 140, 141, 170, 259, 291

Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (U.S.), 258

“Arab spring,” 150–51

Arafat, Yasser, 210–11, 213–16, 220–21, 225n8

Asahara, Shoko, 121–22

Assassinations. See Targeted killings

Asymmetric...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Copyright
• Title Page
• Contents
• Foreword by Thomas C. Schelling
• Acknowledgments
• Notes on Contributors
• INTRODUCTION
• DETERRING TERRORISM
• DETERRING WMD TERRORISM
• EMPIRICAL EVALUATIONS
• CONCLUSION
• Index