PART ONE
A Tour of Exponential Technologies
Chapter One: Connecting with Each Other
I couldnât wait until I got my driverâs license! Having a car (or, rather, borrowing my momâs) meant I was able to get to the mall, to my friend Peterâs house, to anywhere my friends would be hanging out. Having a car meant being connected, and being connected was vital for a teenager.
It still is. But it no longer takes an automobile to do it. Today we connect online, and physical proximity is no longer relevant. Itâs no surprise, therefore, that todayâs youths are less dependent on automobiles. According to the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, nearly half of 18- to 24-year-olds say they would choose having Internet access over owning a car.
PREFERENCE OF 18-24 YEAR-OLDS
Connectivity turns even the mundane into a marvel. Consider pizza, one of the worldâs most popular foods. Itâs also one of its oldest and to a large extent is still made the way itâs been made for centuries. But the way itâs sold is changing rapidly. Dominoâs, for example, lets you order a pizza via voice command while driving a Ford Fiesta. Using GPS technology, the store knows where you are and can calculate how long it will take you to get homeâso the pizza arrives when you do.
Not to be outdone, Pizza Hut lets gamers order pizzas while playing with an Xboxâno need to interrupt the game merely to manage your munchies. Both companies say half their orders arrive digitally, and both say their IT departments are the fastest-growing divisions in their businesses.
Thanks to online connectivity:
⢠Facebook was able to become huge. Thatâs where people are for two minutes out of every seven that theyâre online.
⢠30 billion messages were sent using WhatsApp in 2015.
⢠YouTubeâs 1 billion users view 4 billion videos every day and upload 300 hours of video every minute.
⢠Google generates more revenue than all newspapers and magazines combined. YouTube, iTunes and Netflix each generates more revenue than the AMC cable network.
Š 2016 KFS King Features Syndicate, Inc.
And much of this connectivity is being done via mobile devices. Nine in 10 Americans have a mobile phone, and there are now more mobile devices connected to the Internet than desktop computers. In fact, according to the Mobile Marketing Association, there are now more mobile phones on the planet than there are toothbrushesâand, unlike toothbrushes, more than 90% of smartphone users keep their phones within armâs reach 24/7.
Lots of people are already using their phones to make purchasesâand I donât just mean by ordering products using Amazonâs mobile app. At Cheesecake Factory and other restaurants, your order appears on an app, and you can pay the bill whenever you wantâeven splitting it with others dining with youâwithout having to wait for the server to bring the check. The Sweetgreen restaurant chain wonât even let you pay with cash; you must use an electronic form of payment. Android Pay is accepted at more than 1 million stores, Samsung Pay can be used at swipe-only terminals, and Apple Pay can be used with credit cards from 1,300 card issuers. Chase, Capital One, and Walmart are among those launching ways to make it easier for you to pay your bills. In 2015, 45% of all online purchases made in the United States were done via a mobile device, according to Demandware.
Soon, though, it wonât be our telephones that connect us to the Internetâitâll be our clothing. Researchers are developing clothes that kill bacteria, trap toxic gases, conduct electricity, block ultraviolet rays, measure our heart rate, analyze our sweat, monitor brain signals, heat or cool our skinâand let us talk to each other.
Leviâs has partnered with Google to create conductive fabrics, while Ralph Lauren sells a shirt that detects your breathing, heart rate, stress level and calorie burnâsending the data to a smartphone app that creates a custom workout program for you. The shirt, which features an accelerometer and gyroscope to capture movement and direction, sells for $295. (Expect the price to come down.)
NEARLY 3 BILLION PEOPLE ARE ONLINE
AND THEY HAVE NEARLY 7 BILLION DEVICES
Sales of connected wearables were $11 billion in 2014 and are projected to be $40 billion by 2019, according to IHS Markit.
Itâs one thing to connect people to the Internet; itâs quite another to connect the things people use. And thatâs a problem, because the Internet is running out of capacity. Todayâs platform can handle only 4.9 billion devices. Considering that 3 billion people are already connected to the Internet (many with more than one deviceâthe number of mobile devices is about to outpace the number of people on the planet), itâs obvious that weâre running out of room.
Thatâs why a new platform is being launched in 2020. It will have the capacity to handle 78 octillion devicesâthatâs 78 billion billion billion devices. In other words, every grain of sand on earth could have 1 trillion IP addresses.
The Internet of Things
That will move us to the next phase of connectivity, to what is being called IoTâthe Internet of Things. Everything that operates with electricity will be connected to the Internet, as will a great many things that donât use electricity, such as food.
Drew Dernavich/The New Yorker Collection/The Cartoon Bank
This is already under way. You can install thermostats that let you alter room temperatures without being in your house; the devices can also detect when people enter the room and adjust the temperature accordingly. Samsonite, Trunkster, Hontus, LugLoc and LEV Technology offer luggage that features Wi-Fi hot spots, USB chargers, digital locks, built-in scales, Bluetooth speakers and cellular-enabled tracking systems so you always know where your bag is. Refrigerators can tell you when the milk has gone sour or that the carton is low. (Soon the refrigerator will place the order for you, and the milk will be delivered to your home without your taking any actionâprobably by a drone.)
In 2015, only 4 billion devices were connected to the Internet. By 2020, there will be 50 billion, and by 2030 there will be 1 trillion. Weâre just 1% of the way there.
NUMBER OF CONNECTED DEVICES
Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality
As exciting as mobile connectivity is, thatâs nothing compared to two other emerging exponential technologies: virtual reality and augmented reality.
VR goggles cover your eyes, making you feel as though youâre immersed in a different universe. You can explore maps of the brainâs neurons, check out your favorite retailerâs latest products or roam forests where you can fight dragons with virtual weapons.
By 2020, according to Fortune magazine, virtual reality devices will let car buyers test-drive vehicles, doctors practice surgical procedures, military procurement officers evaluate defense system capabilities, cruise ships let you see what a vacation experience would be, hotels let travelers visit their properties without actually having to go there and architects take you on tours of buildings before they are constructed.
Those whoâve used VR complain that the goggles are bulky. And when youâre using them, you can see only the alternative reality being displayed; youâre unaware of your actual surroundings. That limits the devicesâ practicality. These problems are solved by an even more fascinating technology, called augmented reality.
Ken Krimstein/The New Yorker Collection/The Cartoon Bank
AR doesnât require you to wear headgear; instead you just aim your smartphone or tabletâs camera (and, in the future, your eyewear) toward an object. Instantly a display pops up, providing you with details about whatever youâre looking at.
While watching a ball game, point your phoneâs camera at anyone on the fieldâand it will reveal the playerâs name, key performance statistics and video highlights. Tourists will be able to point their phone at a famous landmark and instantly receive information about the site. Surgeons will be able to use the devices to see arteries invisible to the naked eye.
In 2017, 2.5 billion AR apps will be downloaded onto smartphones worldwide. The most famous so far was launched in 2016: the game PokĂŠmon Go. You simply look at the image shown by your phoneâs camera; while doing so, PokĂŠmon characters appear on your screen as though they really exist. The goal of the game is to capture as many characters as possible. But first you have to find themâand that means walking around, not just in your house but throughout your neighborhood, even traveling to other cities. Parents who lament that their video gameâplaying kids get no exercise are relieved that this game requires outdoor physical activity.
A Case Study in Exponential Technologies
Because PokĂŠmon Go was the first widely available consumer AR application, itâs worth taking a closer look at it. There are 7 billion people in the world, and few gave any thought to augmented reality until July 6, 2016, when the game was released. Within weeks, more than 75 million people worldwide were playing itâmaking it the most downloaded app in history.
Financially speaking, the immediate beneficiaries were Nintendo, Niantic (the gameâs creator) and Apple (which gets 30% of the revenue collected by the game through its App Store). The investment banking firm Needham & Compan...