Ahead of the Curve

A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business And Market Cycle

Joseph H. Ellis

• Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
• Year: 2005
• Print ISBN: 9781591396918
• eBook ISBN: 9781633691223
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Management
• Index: Business

Economic and stock market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a 35-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method to help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book helps readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see—and win a sizeable competitive advantage. Joseph H. Ellis was a partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked for 18 consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's No.1 retail industry analyst.

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Title Page
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Contents
• Preface and Acknowledgments
• Part I: “Seeing” The Economy: Creating Order from Chaos
• Part II: Consumer Spending: The Cornerstone of the Economy and the Stock Market
• Part III: Forecasting Consumer Spending: Understanding the Key Indicator Relationships
• Part IV: From Theory to Practice: Applying the Charting Discipline to Your Own Forecasting
• Appendix A: Credit: Consumer Spending’s “Swing Factor”
• Appendix B: Does Charting Economic Cause and Effect Work Outside the United States?
• Appendix C: Major Industry Data Series
• Appendix D: www.AheadoftheCurve-theBook.com
• Notes
• Bibliography
• Index
• About the Author