Dynamical Modeling Of The Onset Of War

Alvin M Saperstein

• Publisher: World Scientific
• Year: 1999
• Print ISBN: 9789810240646, 9789810240646
• eBook ISBN: 9789812815088
• Topic: Physical Sciences
• Subtopic: Chaotic Behavior in Systems

Physical science and technology (engineering) are fundamentally linked by the possibility of predictions: science tests itself and grows by making and checking predictions; technology relies on predictions and thus furthers the growth of the associated science. The political science of international relations is similarly associated with the "technology" of policy making by governments and elites: the growth of the science is dependent upon its applicability for useful policy making. This book explores the applicability of predictability — based upon dynamical modeling, and the related concepts of chaos and complexity — to the understanding of international relations, with the hope that this will lead to insights into policy making and hence the growth of the science of international relations.

Table of contents

• CONTENTS
• PREFACE
• CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
• CHAPTER 2 PREDICTIVE STRUCTURE BUILDING — STATIC AND DYNAMIC
• CHAPTER 3 PREDICTIVE MODELING OF ARMS RACES: STATIC AND DYNAMIC
• CHAPTER 4 DYNAMICAL CONCEPTS
• CHAPTER 5 CHAOS AND INTERNATIONAL STABILITY — MODELING WAR INITIATION
• CHAPTER 6 COMBINED MODELS: CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS
• CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS. PAST AND FUTURE RESEARCH
• INDEX