Political Science Research Methods

Exploring America at a Crossroads

Cal Clark

• Publisher: WSPC
• Year: 2013
• eBook ISBN: 9789814460453
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: American Government
• Index: Politics & International Relations

The principal goal of this textbook is to provide clear and elementary descriptions of the major statistical techniques used in political and social science research. The book is built on two basic assumptions. First, that it is possible to explain social science statistics in a simple and straightforward manner so that students with a minimal background in math can understand even fairly advanced techniques, such as multiple and logistic regression. Second, that undergraduate and even graduate students have less trouble in understanding specific techniques than in interpreting what statistical results mean substantively. Consequently, the book stresses the interpretation of research findings.

In essence, the book argues that political science research is like piecing a jigsaw puzzle together. Pieces of information — statistical and non-statistical — must be assembled and interpreted both logically and creatively.

The text is organized in a unique manner, using the various techniques being discussed to analyze the current state of the United States as it seemingly stands at a crossroads in both its political orientations and socioeconomic nature. To make the statistical interpretation more meaningful and easier to understand, the results throughout the book are integrated by their focus upon two central questions related to the theme of America at a Crossroads: Are Americans conservative or liberal in their political beliefs? How do economic and social outcomes in America compare to those in other developed democracies?

Contents:

• • Research as Puzzle Solving
  • Introducing Our Data
• Designing Research Projects:
  • The Logic of Inquiry and Research Design
  • Approaches to the Study of Politics
  • The Relationship of Qualitative Approaches to Quantitative Analysis
• The Foundations for Statistical Analysis:
  • Some More Complex Issues in Interpreting Data
  • Summary Statistics for an Entire Distribution: Moving Beyond Data Arrays and Graphs
  • An Introduction to Inferential Statistics
• Discovering Relationships for Nominal and Ordinal Data:
  • Crosstabulation: Why Do Americans Vote Democratic or Republican?
  • Multivariate Tables: More Nuanced Explanations for Conservative Attitudes and Behavior
• Discovering Relationships for Interval Data:
  • Regression Analysis: International Patterns and Benchmarks for American Performance
  • Multiple Regression and Path Analysis: More Complex Models of the Policy Process
  • Logistic Regression: Developing More Complete Models of Partisanship
• Conclusion:
  • The Joy and Challenge of the Jigsaw Puzzles in Political Research

Readership: Undergraduates or graduate-level students of political science and/or social sciences interested in its statistical research methods.

Chapter

1

Research as Puzzle Solving

In essence, political science research consists of asking and answering questions about our social and political world. The research process rests both on asking interesting questions and on finding convincing answers to them. Political science research, therefore, is like piecing a jigsaw puzzle together. Pieces of information — statistical and non-statistical — must be assembled and interpreted both logically and creatively. It is a challenging and surprisingly open-ended process, but it also can be quite interesting and intriguing. This text is organized around exploring two such puzzles concerning the theme America at a Crossroads. Focusing on two central questions or problems throughout the book should make it much easier to understand how the various parts of the research process fit together.

1.1 AMERICA AT A CROSSROADS: TWO JIGSAWS

In the early 21st century, the United States seemingly stands at a crossroads in both its politics and its socioeconomic development. Politically, the Democratic and Republican parties are almost evenly balanced in popular support. The two major parties, moreover, have become increasingly polarized ideologically over the last generation. Thus, a decisive shift in one direction or another would almost certainly have profound political consequences.

Economically, America is in the middle of a basic transformation from an industrial to an information-age society that holds great promise for some but great threat to others. Moreover, each downturn in the business cycle over the last two decades seems to be worse than the preceding one, culminating in the Great Recession of 2008–2012, making the threat of ongoing economic change even more dire. Thus, the question of whether we are ascending toward greater prosperity or starting to slip down the slope of economic decline is assuming greater urgency and poignancy.

1.1.1 The Political Crossroads

The crossroads in the political realm represents what might be called a delayed realignment. Historically, American politics has evolved through a series of party systems that lasted 30 to 40 years each. In each new system, the parties, dominant party, or the social coalitions underlying the parties changed considerably from the preceding one.¹ The twentieth century, for example, went through three political eras. Republicans dominated the first third, Democrats the second, and neither the third. Thus, since Richard Nixon won the presidency in 1968, many have waited for a critical realignment that would move the U.S. into a new era. The partisan balance has certainly flip-flopped over the last 40 years, but no stable party control of the government has emerged. During the 1970s and 1980s, Republicans won the Presidency and Democrats the Congress most of the time; and this pattern was reversed in the 1990s. More recently, the Republicans did control both the executive and legislature for much of George W. Bush’s administration. Their majority was short-lived, though, as Democrats won Congressional majorities in the 2006 elections; and Barack Obama was elected President in 2008.² Yet, this Democratic domination was even more transitory than the Republican one; and the instability in the party balance continued. In 2010, the Republicans captured a solid majority in the House of Representatives and came close to winning the Senate in a major victory for the party, while in 2012 President Obama was re-elected; and the House and the Senate remained under different party majorities.

The views of the American electorate will almost certainly play a major role in determining where our government and political parties are headed. In particular, the question of whether we are conservative or liberal in our political attitudes would appear critical given the ideological polarization between the generally liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans. Thus, we need to understand the major dimensions of public opinion.

For the last several decades, political science research has found that two different major dimensions or types of issues exist in American politics which have been called economic and cultural issues.³ More recently, especially after the tragedy of September 11th, national security has emerged as an important separate issue dimension as well. Table 1.1 summarizes the stereotype of how conservatives and liberals divide on these issues. The first issue dimension has its roots in the Great Depression and focuses upon the “politics of rich and poor”.⁴ On this dimension, conservatives generally advocate smaller government and reduced public spending in order to free resources for private utilization which is justified both in terms of individual liberty and in terms of the efficiency of laissez-faire economics. In contrast, liberals advocate expanded government responsibility both to promote the economy and, usually more importantly, to help those on the margins of society. The second area of national security and public safety form an important exception to this normal cleavage about the role of government, though, since conservatives generally support and liberals tend to be suspicious of governmental activism in this area.

Table 1.1: Ideological divisions in contemporary America.

Issue	Conservatives	Liberals
I. Government Role	Anti-Government	Activist Government
	Personal Freedom	Social Equity
	Market Economics	Regulatory Protection
	Corruption and Inefficiency	Social Benefits
	Social Dependency	Human Capital
II. Security Issues	War on Terror	Human Rights
	Anti-Communism	Human Rights
	More Defense Spending	Anti-Defense
	More Support for Domestic Police Power	Protection vs. Police Abuses
III. Cultural Issues	Traditional Values	Personal Freedom

The third set of issues is rooted in the social upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s when the traditional values of American society came under increasing challenge by insurgent political and social groups trumpeting a new morality.⁵ Here, conservatives and liberals actually exchange positions on the desirability of freedom and, at least by implication, of governmental activism. Conservatives, fearing that we are Slouching Towards Gomorrah,⁶ stress traditional values and maintaining order, while liberals are more supportive of secularism and individual liberty.

Evaluating how the public hews to these two major ideological lines, hence, involves charting American public opinion on a wide variety of political issues. This should raise several vital questions. First and probably most obviously, what is the distribution of Americans’ ideological allegiances? Are they conservative on most issues? Or liberal? Or, are they moderate in the sense of rejecting both the strong conservative or strong liberal stances? Or, do they hold a mix of liberal and conservative views? The answers to these questions should prove quite suggestive about the partisan direction in which we are likely to move in the near future. For example, a conservative public should be the precursor of a new Republican era, while a liberal one would suggest that the Democrats are getting ready to regain their lost dominance. If Americans are essentially moderate, the advantage should go to the party that can move toward the middle of the ideological spectrum without alienating its base constituencies. Finally, if Americans are committed conservatives in some areas and staunch liberals in others, political success may rest in coming up with a new policy package or public philosophy that better reflects Americans’ beliefs than the two existing alternatives.

In addition, not just the relative conservatism or liberalism of U.S. citizens is important here, but also how Americans’ ideological positions are related to their other attitudes, characteristics, and behaviors. Most basically, is ideology central to partisanship in the United States, as everyone assumes? That is, do conservatives vote strongly Republican and liberals strongly Democratic? This brings us to a second important question of how political attitudes are related to peoples’ demographic or socioeconomic characteristics. That is, what types of Americans are liberals or conservatives? Are, as we generally assume, more affluent and more religious people mostly conservative, while the poorer and more secular are mostly liberal? These questions really seek to discover the causes and consequences of ideological beliefs ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Halftitle
• Title
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Abouttheauthor
• Preface
• Contents
• Foreword
• Chapter 1. Research as Puzzle Solving
• Chapter 2. Introducing Our Data
• Part I. Designing Research Projects
• Part II. The Foundations for Statistical Analysis
• Part III. Discovering Relationships for Nominal and Ordinal Data
• Part IV. Discovering Relationships for Interval Data
• Conclusion
• Index