Patterns of the Future

Understanding the Next Wave of Global Change

Markku Wilenius

• Publisher: WSPC (EUROPE)
• Year: 2017
• eBook ISBN: 9781786342904
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business General
• Index: Business

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Patterns of the Future explains the current world using the theory of long-term development waves (Kondratiev waves). Markku Wilenius, Professor of Futures Studies, argues that we are now entering the sixth wave: the age of intelligent, integrated technologies, helping to restore the balance between humans, technology and nature by radically improved material and energy efficiency and a wiser use of human potential.

The unfolding sixth wave will challenge our current values, institutions and business models. Using a systems-based approach, Patterns of the Future analyses how corporations and the public sector can navigate in the sixth wave. Case studies look at specific examples of this, using high-profile companies to demonstrate both the best- (and worst-) case scenarios of innovation for change.

This book spans concepts from multiple disciplines in the social sciences, making it relevant not only to undergraduate and graduate students in futures studies, environmental studies, economics, and business, but also national policymakers, think tanks, corporate operators and indeed for any one seriously interested in the future.

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Chapter 1

WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON?

One most wonders about the future during uncertain times: the times when the global economy is hit by a recession; when people get laid off and fired from their jobs; when economists spread gloom and give their analyses with very serious faces; when newspaper headlines are all negative; when people don’t buy homes and when they curb their spending. There is less concern about the future when global matters seem to roll along on their own accord and there seems to be certainty that there is a future.

It is precisely during the bad times that one should be thinking about the future. This is because thinking about the future can lead to useful analysis about what can be changed and how one can change it. Looking into the future can mean reanalyzing or evaluating options. Being stuck in the past seems to be a particular problem facing humankind. Reality is a combination of the past and the future that has been condensed into the present. Reality is not contiguous and simplistic but rather requires various perspectives in order for its nuances and shades to be illuminated.

The desire to see into the future is part of human nature, and for as long as civilized cultures have existed, there have been visions of what’s to come. Plato’s state was perhaps the first idealized vision of a future society. That tells us how far back in history humankind began looking into the future. The Greek philosophers essentially created the spiritual roots for Western science and thinking.

At the end of the day, we are faced with the fact that we don’t know anything about the future. It’s a secret world. But could we predict the future when we identify the factors that affect it? Possibly.

It’s a fallacy to think that one can predict the future with exactness, as chance plays an important role in all events. Quantum physics tells us that particles can simultaneously appear as waves and as separate particles, which tells us that there are also no scientific grounds to believe in a distinctly defined future.

The history of humankind shows us that amidst steady development, abrupt changes suddenly disrupt society and everyday life. How predictable are such changes? For example, who could foresee how much mobile technology was to change daily life? It’s now hard to even imagine a world without mobile phones, although it’s hardly been 20 years since they first appeared in our lives.

Humans are characterized by the skill to easily adapt to new situations. Evolution has probably strengthened this characteristic and has in part ensured the success of the human race. We currently need this ability more than ever.

The relationship between humans and the future has remained largely unchanged for many millennia. In other words, we’ve remained unchanged since the origins of advanced civilization in Mesopotamia. The development of cultures requires a dialogue between human beings, and nature: we have molded the environment in countless ways by sowing the land, using forests for timber and by fishing the oceans. Every action shapes the future in some way, but some actions have a more significant impact than others.

The breadth of our effect on our own environment is new. In early history, human action had at most a local effect, with hardly any global impact, but all that has now changed. Paleontologist Tim Flannery describes this change by calling man the disrupter, who through technology has accelerated natural selection by an order of magnitude of 10.¹ This has created a whole new direction for cultural evolution.

Thus far, planet Earth’s major milestones have been asteroid crashes, sudden climate change and the resultant mass extinctions. Such disruptions have been numerous throughout history, but for the first time the disruption is being caused by a conscious or even self-conscious being: humankind.

Humankind has domesticated planet Earth and enslaved most of its resources in order to satisfy our needs, which, also for the first time, will have global consequences. From the perspective of cultural evolution, this is a completely new situation.

The late futurist Pentti Malaska, spoke of the need for global record keeping.² The Thirty Years’ War in the 17^th century initiated the keeping of statistics. It was then that the first nation-states started to develop and which, for instance, created the need for population censuses. The same principles that have guided the analysis of national resources should encompass the entire planet. These would allow a clear understanding of the actual impact humankind has on its environment. These kinds of statistics, however, are in their infancy.

Naturally, we do know some things already. For example, we know that humans already use about half of the entire amount of energy consumed by nature, which is mostly consumed in photosynthesis. However, the amount of energy produced by humans is only about 0.000001% of the amount of renewable energy produced by the sun.³ So everything is relative. Compared to the sun, humankind is a minor factor.

Because the scale is changing from local to global, our perspective also has to change. Growth is still largely measured against goals: how much more economic growth or exports we require, for example. At the same time, we must find new ways to understand the global nature of progress, which is best done by developing analytical tools.

One could argue that it’s easy to predict the future based on current knowledge: i.e., the prognosis is bad. Global climate change seems to be unstoppable, and the future is about to become unmanageable due to an increasing scarcity of resources and an explosive increase in pollution. This is what the situation looks like from a long-term global perspective.

On the other hand, we’ve never had as many means to change the direction of our societies — not just technological but also political and cultural means. It’s thus useful to reexamine events from 100 years ago: What did the world look like then?

There were at most 50 nation-states 100 years ago. Among them were few — mostly European — giants, some of which could even be called imperiums. The relative “backwardness” of China, India and Turkey at that time emphasized the ruling position of Europe. Everything seemed possible during the Belle Époque. That is, until from small tinder a vast war broke out, lasting almost 30 years. Even though Europeans did their best to destroy each other in two world wars, the development in the region dominated global progress, including that of the United States. This can be attributed just as much to the weakness of the rest of the world as to the excellence of Europe.

That world seems quite distant now. Back then nation-state thinking was at its strongest, and use of military force was quick-triggered. Nation-states are now waning, although their power has not completely vanished. Use of military power is constantly decreasing and other forms of power, especially economic, are gaining importance. In the world of 100 years ago, borders and time were important. Many boundaries have now disappeared: In Europe, many of the national currencies have been replaced by a supranational currency, and both goods and people cross borders much more easily. Things at a distance affect those nearby. Planet Earth has become flat in a sense that we can easily reach almost anyone by digital means of communication, irrespective of their whereabouts. There are currently 4.6 billion mobile phone users and the number is growing rapidly.⁴ Nations, organizations and citizens have become more intimately networked. The virtual world has quickly become almost as vast and complex as the real world. The financial economy continues to grow much faster than the real economy.

These new networks are most often not tightly managed. What do Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) countries have in common? Not much, except for being in a different stage of development than other Western nations. “BRICS” as a term was coined by the banking institution Goldman Sachs, and its use has spread globally, even though we’re not dealing with a constellation of countries that would have rather uniform structures, goals and values (such as the Nordic countries, for instance). However, what is important to understand about the BRICS nations, is that all of them — with the exception of the latecomer South Africa — have global ambitions. This common denominator has given them reason to become political allies and thus become more than a simple term to define a market.⁵

It’s clear that the era of Western dominance is more or less over. The world is becoming increasingly multipolar. Geopolitically, the next era will differ radically from the past era of Western dominance. However, the United States, no more than Europe, will not disappear from the world map as a result. The result will be something quite different. A lot depends on the preservation of Western unity and mutual trust. How much will Europe and the United States stick together — or will one or both form key alliances elsewhere in the world? Europe has gained a lot from its connection to the United States; history teaches us that much. Fatal consequences followed the one time that Europe forgot that connection, and one only has to consider what happened to Europe after World War I to understand how vital cooperation really is. During World War II, the United States came to the rescue at the last possible moment, when Germany had all but claimed victory over Great Britain. Even if the real reason for United States to enter the war was the attack of Japan on Pearl Harbor, its support helped Europe out of the impasse it had driven itself into.

Nowadays, it may be fashionable to think that the United States is on a major downward slide and that there’s no point in focusing on its direction. Asia is growing fast; everything new and interesting starts there. This thinking bears to be criticized for several reasons.

First, even though the United States is no longer “young” and Europe no longer dictates the global pace, they comprise a pair that shares many values and practices. Second, neither has a more credible or reliable partner elsewhere. Europe can’t become allied with Russia any more than with China. This of course also applies to the United States. At the end of the day, Europe and the United States only have each other. Third, there are signs that the strongest growth period in the BRICS countries is about to end: their performance in the last decade was much stronger than what it is so far in the current decade.⁶ The gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia has dropped massively in the last years: The year 2015 brought them back to 2007, while it was almost double only two years earlier, in 2013.⁷ At the same time, voices calling for a stronger democracy and more attention to escalating environmental problems, including risks related to the use of nuclear power, are becoming more pronounced. Simultaneously, pressure for democracy in China is ever increasing. The leaders of this country must face the fact that their newly rich middle class — not to mention the elite — may not tolerate pseudodemocracy in the future the same way they still do today.⁸ India, on the other hand, is plagued by a lack of efficiency created by a period of strong socialism. Its institutions are archaic and can no longer meet the demand for flexibility required by the networked world of today. Brazil is struggling to pay for the welfare state it created in the last decade. Despite its advancements, South Africa has regressed since its success in the post-apartheid years.

Even though China has become another superpower, its GDP per capita trails far behind that of Albania and is not even a fifth of that of Finland. China has a long road ahead, and it doesn’t possess even a theoretical chance to reach the Western standard of living with its present consumption model (see Chapter 4). Not to mention the fact that already by now, due to massive economic growth, China’s environmental problems have mounted to an intolerable level: the air pollution in Beijing, for instance, has given it the nickname “airpocalypse”. Groundwater supplies in most of the cities are classified as “bad or very bad”. More than a fourth of the rivers are categorized as “unfit for human touch”. China has become the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.⁹ The economic growth China has experienced already bears a massive price tag.

On the other hand, it’s difficult to find the kind of leadership the world yearns for, especially among Western leaders. After a strong start, President Barack Obama’s impact on world politics has proven disappointing. Europe has shriveled in its own economic hardship and even its strongest representatives — Germany being the case in point — provide solutions that are not visionary but rather practical. The “golden years” of the last decade (2003–2007) of strong economic growth have become a mere memory as Europe strives to get back on its feet after a carefree accumulation of debt. At the same time, the United States is recovering from the financial condition it was left in by a Republican administration and ultra-liberalist chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan. And now Americans have elected a new President, Donald Trump, who will add tremendously to the uncertainty of the world.

Everything is ready for a new era.

But the new era can’t begin before enough of the old has been cleared away. This is especially true of the economy. The economy has become a modern Minotaur, holding the world in a state of terror and causing the suffering and death of numerous victims. Exploitation of natural resources has created enormous amounts of pollution and endangered the world’s ecosystems. The endless goals and skills of greedy bankers to create huge fortunes have poisoned the general atmosphere.¹⁰

One must also remember that, more than ever, economic initiatives and new enterprises are needed, particularly in old Europe. They create the well-being necessary for people to self-actualize. Without industriousness and entrepreneurship operating at a much more vigorous level than before, it is simply not possible to support the present state of the welfare society.

A new kind of business thinking is gaining ground that highlights corporate responsibility and sustainability. ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Halftitle
• Title
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Contents
• Foreword
• About the Author
• Acknowledgments
• Introduction
• Chapter 1. What is Really Going On?
• Chapter 2. The Pain and the Thrill of Uncertainty
• Chapter 3. Wave of Advancement
• Chapter 4. The Pulse of Planet Earth
• Chapter 5. The Roar of the People
• Chapter 6. The Meaning of Economy
• Chapter 7. Singing the Praises of Entrepreneurship
• Chapter 8. The Freedom of Leadership
• Chapter 9. The Power of Education and Culture
• Chapter 10. A Revolution of Awareness
• Chapter 11. The Opportunity for Finland
• Chapter 12. What Needs to be Done?
• Epilogue: Towards a Cooperative Society
• Further Reading
• Index