Preventing Chemical Weapons

Arms Control and Disarmament as the Sciences Converge

Michael Crowley, Malcolm Dando, Lijun Shang, Michael Crowley, Malcolm Dando, Lijun Shang

• Publisher: Royal Society of Chemistry
• Year: 2018
• ISBN:
  9781788014724
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Medicine
• Subtopic: Toxicology

The life and chemical sciences are in the midst of a period of rapid and revolutionary transformation that will undoubtedly bring societal benefits but also have potentially malign applications, notably in the development of chemical weapons. Such concerns are exacerbated by the unstable international security environment and the changing nature of armed conflict, which could fuel a desire by certain States to retain and use existing chemical weapons, as well as increase State interest in creating new weapons; whilst a broader range of actors may seek to employ diverse toxic chemicals as improvised weapons. Stark indications of the multi-faceted dangers we face can be seen in the chemical weapons attacks against civilians and combatants in Iraq and Syria, and also in more targeted chemical assassination operations in Malaysia and the UK.

Using a multi-disciplinary approach, and drawing upon an international group of experts, this book analyses current and likely near-future advances in relevant science and technology, assessing the risks of their misuse. The book examines the current capabilities, limitations and failures of the existing international arms control and disarmament architecture – notably the Chemical Weapons Convention – in preventing the development and use of chemical weapons. Through the employment of a novel Holistic Arms Control methodology, the authors also look beyond the bounds of such treaties, to explore the full range of international law, international agreements and regulatory mechanisms potentially applicable to weapons employing toxic chemical agents, in order to develop recommendations for more effective routes to combat their proliferation and misuse. A particular emphasis is given to the roles that chemical and life scientists, health professionals and wider informed activist civil society can play in protecting the prohibition against poison and chemical weapons; and in working with States to build effective and responsive measures to ensure that the rapid scientific and technological advances are safeguarded from hostile use and are instead employed for the benefit of us all.

Section III
Advances in Chemistry and Biology

CHAPTER 7

Convergence of Chemistry and Biology, and Nanotechnology

R. Trapp^a

^a Independent Disarmament Consultant, 116 Route de la Contamine, Chessenaz-74207, France
*E-mail: [email protected]

7.1 Introduction

The use of poison as weapon is as old as our knowledge of poison. The nature of chemical warfare, however, changed fundamentally at the turn of the 19th century with the emergence of the chemical industry. New technologies and equipment enabled the cheap, industrial-scale production of toxic chemicals and their efficient dissemination on the battlefield, creating a scientific and technological potential for chemical warfare on a scale hitherto unknown.

Although used only rarely, chemical weapons remained a menace throughout the 20th century, not merely to soldiers on the battlefield but even more so to civilian populations. New agents were developed, and huge arsenals of chemical weapons were amassed by the Soviet Union and the USA during the Cold War. Several other countries also acquired chemical weapons – eight States declared current chemical weapons stockpiles when they joined the Chemical Weapons Convention (the CWC): Russia, the United States, India, a State not disclosed by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (the OPCW), Albania, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Of the few States that have yet to join the CWC, at least one is believed to maintain a chemical weapons (CW) stockpile today (North Korea). In recent decades, terrorist organisations also have shown an interest in acquiring a chemical warfare capability; after the 1995 use of sarin gas by the Aum Shinrikyo in Japan, terrorist organisations involved in the conflict in the Middle East also used toxic chemicals in combat and in attacks on civilian targets. A joint OPCW–UN investigation in Syria recently confirmed that, in addition to attacks it attributed to Syrian government forces, ISIL (Daesh) was the only belligerent party that could have been responsible for a mustard gas attack in Marea (Aleppo province, Syria) in August 2015.¹

International efforts to ban chemical weapons resulted in the adoption of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which entered into force in 1997. The CWC is designed to ensure the lasting and comprehensive prohibition of all chemical weapons – never under any circumstances shall States Parties develop, acquire or use chemical weapons and all their stockpiles were to be eliminated within prescribed time frames. Its national implementation and international verification mechanisms were to ensure that all States Parties honour their treaty commitments. At the same time, these provisions largely mirror past chemical weapons State programmes. Paradigm shifts in science, technology and industry, and the emergence of new actors such as terrorist or criminal groups, may challenge the way in which the CWC functions or even test some of its design principles. This is why the CWC contains provisions for a regular review of its operations, including assessing the impact of advances in science and technology, and mechanisms to adapt CWC provisions if required by changes in its implementation environment.

Such a paradigm shift may be about to occur in the life sciences, prompted by a combination of science convergence and advances in key enabling technologies.

7.2 Convergence in the Life Sciences

7.2.1 Advances at the Intersection of Chemistry and Biology

Science can advance in different directions: deepening the knowledge and understanding of natural processes and phenomena by narrowing the focus of investigation using ever more specialised tools and concepts (specialisation), or bringing together diverse knowledge, concepts and techniques from multiple fields of science to broaden the understanding of natural phenomena, develop new theoretical concepts, and devise new investigative approaches (convergence). Both approaches complement each other, yet convergence is more likely to lead to non-linear progress, sparking revolutionary change.

At the turn of the 21st century, convergence has become a prominent feature of the life sciences. A recent working paper submitted to the Meeting of the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention describes convergence as “an integrative and collaborative approach in the life sciences that brings together theoretical concepts, experimental techniques as well as knowledge of different (science and engineering) disciplines at the crossroads of chemistry and biology.”²

An example of convergence is the “omics” – studies of all constituents collectively of a set of data/biomolecules such as genes (genomics), lipids (lipidomics), RNA (transcriptomics), proteins (proteomics), metabolites (metabolomics), the brain’s structural and functional connections (connectomics), the cellular systems of an organism (cytomics), and more. Advances in the “omics” have made it possible to edit genetic instructions, providing the tools for correcting genetic defects or directing organisms to produce molecules that are alien to them. These tools can be used to create molecules that are similar to those created by nature but different in terms of the building blocks used (e.g., amino acids). At the same time, advances in bioinformatics, simulation and modelling help life scientists understand how biological systems work and how their processes can be augmented, interrupted or otherwise interfered with. Gradually, the life sciences are moving from a descriptive to a predictive approach that attempts to work from first principles. Today, scientists can model simple biological systems or components of more complex ones. For the time being, rational design and comprehensive predictability of complex biological systems still remain beyond reach. There is a lack of reliable biological data and standardised protocols, and biological systems are dynamic and complex. It has been observed that “[T]o understand dynamic systems, the data ideally should be time resolved at a sufficient scale, be deep enough to cover all the components of the system, broad and complete enough to cover the extent of the cell model, and cheap enough to be feasible.”³ Huge efforts have been made towards a more holistic, integrated approach but past emphasis on expanding the existing data sets on biological functions and components, rather than on ensuring their quality and reproducibility, has led to uncertainties about the validity of many of the data, resulting in researchers spending much time validating and integrating existing data sets. Also, there remain gaps in understanding: the transcriptome is not fully understood, and research has shown that proteome organisation cannot be explained by the organisation of the genome.⁴

Furthermore, when science is advancing at a high pace and new technologies spread rapidly into a variety of areas of potential application, it is often difficult to predict accurately what their impact will be as they mature. New technologies have to compete with existing technologies and solutions, and their limitations will only become apparent as they are used in practice. Two recent examples for new technologies, the impact of which on arms control was over-estimated, were micro processing and additive manufacturing (3D printing). Whilst the former remains an interesting tool for new products and process development, and has to a degree changed features in parts of the chemical industry, its actual impact on CWC verification appears (at least at this stage) to be modest. As for additive manufacturing, it has become clear that whilst it is an excellent tool for fast prototyping and repair, it is not for large-scale industrial manufacturing of critical parts where performance to a high standard is essential.⁴

Nevertheless, the life sciences are making rapid progress and the advances at the interface of chemistry and biology will bring about a range of changes in society, affecting such diverse fields as energy production, food production, medicine, information technology, the production of consumer goods, new materials and much more.

Inevitably, such changes will also affect the CWC and the way in which it operates. They will create new opportunities for treaty implementation but also may challenge some of its basic design criteria. Four technological trends will be discussed below in more detail: the emergence of biological production technologies, the production of complex biological compounds, the possible emergence of new types of chemical agents, and advances in the protection against toxic chemicals.

7.2.2 Biological Production Technologies for Chemical Products

Biological processes have become more widely used in the manufacturing of chemical products, from high-volume organic products such as alcohols and urea to high-value fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals. The OPCW's Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) noted that “[B]ulk and fine chemicals are being produced increasingly using biologically mediated processes, e.g. by microbial fermentation or using enzymes as catalysts. It is estimated that approximately 10% of chemical production volume will use such processes by 2020.”⁵

With regard to their relevance for the implementation of the CWC, the SAB identified the following three processes in particular:

• Fermentation technology and metabolic engineering;
• Enzymes/biocatalysts;
• Synthetic biology.

Although these projections were perhaps optimistic in scale, in light of changes in the price of crude oil, biologically mediated chemicals production is no longer a niche business. The range of products today manufactured by biologically mediated processes reaches from small hydrocarbons, alcohols, amino and other organic acids, to polymers and complex molecules such as peptides.³ The manufacturing capacity for biomaterials (including biopolymers) in Europe, for example, is expected to reach 1.7 million tonnes in 2020 (it stood at 700 000 tonnes per year in 2011). Sales of bio-based products in the EU were at 35.8 million USD in 2013; whilst their overall share of chemical products in 2013 had reached 6.26% in the EU, in some European countries it had climbed as high as 38.9% (Denmark) or 21.72% (Sweden).⁶

One of the drivers is the continuing pressure to move towards using renewable resources. Biomass is the only renewable carbon source other than carbon dioxide, and therefore remains an attractive alternative to crude oil or natural gas. There are a number of routes for converting biomass into chemical products, starting from simple sugars to starchy polymeric biomass and lignocelluloses. The fermentation of sugars is a well-established industrial process. Bioconversion of starchy biomass and celluloses is more challenging. Starches first need to be depolymerised through enzymatic hydrolysis. Starches as well as sugars, of course, are also food sources and are therefore not attractive for manufacturing platform chemicals.

Lignocellulose, on the other hand, is an abundant raw material, but it is recalcitrant and not easy to convert; its bioconversion requires pre-treatment (steam explosion, sulphuric acid treatment, pre-treatment using ammonia or lime), and the resulting product contains a variety of sugars at low concentrations and significant lignin ballast. Research is under way to develop consolidated bioprocessing technologies that can overcome these shortcomings, thereby reducing cost and simplifying the process. Such consolidated lignocellulose bioconversion processes have yet to be scaled up to industrial production levels, however.⁴

How these trends towards biologically mediated processes will evolve will of course also depend on the evolution of the prices of raw materials, services and equipment. The current low crude oil price puts strong pressures on biotechnological chemicals manufacturers, ...