Water Scarcity, Climate Change and Conflict in the Middle East

Securing Livelihoods, Building Peace

Christopher Ward, Sandra Ruckstuhl

• Publisher: I.B. Tauris
• Year: 2017
• Print ISBN:
  9781784537760
• Edition: 1
• eBook ISBN:
  9781786721303
• Topic: Biological Sciences
• Subtopic: Global Warming & Climate Change
• Index: Biological Sciences

The countries that make up the MENA region display wide diversity. One of the poorest countries in the world sits alongside two of the wealthiest, whilst the region's natural resources range from immeasurable oil and gas reserves to some of the scantiest natural endowments anywhere in the world. Yet through this diversity runs a common thread: water scarcity. Now, through the impact of human development and climate change, the water resource itself is changing,bringing new risks and increasing the vulnerability of all those dependent on water. Chris Ward and Sandra Ruckstuhl assess the increased challenges now facing the countries of the region, placing particular emphasis on water scarcity and the resultant risks to livelihoods, food security and the environment. They evaluate the risks and reality of climate change in the region, and offer an assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture and livelihoods. In a final section, they explore the options for responding to the new challenges, including policy, institutional, economic and technical measures.

PART I CHALLENGES

THE CHALLENGE OF WATER SCARCITY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER-RELATED CONFLICT

The Introduction provided a rapid review of the countries which make up the Middle East and North Africa, and of their economies, societies and state of development. The main constraints and drivers of change were discussed, including the sluggish growth, weak regional integration and import dependence. Demographic pressures and lacklustre economies combine to create high rates of unemployment, particularly for youth. Political change driven by poor government and inequity has veered into conflict.

The Introduction then touched on the natural resource challenges related to water, agriculture and climate. These themes are taken up in detail in Part I of this book. Chapter 1 looks at the challenges of water and agriculture and at the drivers of water scarcity. The changes in climate and the resulting risks and impacts on the farming systems of the region are the subject of Chapter 2. Chapter 3 then demonstrates how scarce water is combining with poor water governance to create situations of conflict.

Part I, Challenges, is essentially a diagnostic. Part II, Options, which follows, highlights the possible remedies and demonstrates how good water management, adaptation to a changing climate, and water conflict resolution can contribute to sustainable, efficient and equitable growth across the region. Both Part I and Part II show that there is a dangerous downside. With inaction, or through perseverance with certain current trends, including mismanagement of natural resources, there is a risk that countries in the region may become trapped in a pattern of protracted crisis. The result might be a long term instability characterized by continuing high levels of internal and international migration, loss of social capital and weakening of states and institutions.

CHAPTER 1

THE CHALLENGE OF WATER AND AGRICULTURE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA AND THE DRIVERS OF WATER SCARCITY

This chapter reviews, in detail, the challenges of water and water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa region that were sketched out in the Introduction. As agriculture uses on average 90 per cent of the region's water, the focus is very much on agriculture and on the drivers of water scarcity in agriculture. The chapter looks first at the resource base, at water resources and current uses. The discussion then moves to the current status of agriculture across the region, and to emerging trends in agriculture, particularly agriculture's contribution to food security and the stresses to which agriculture is subject. A discussion of the extent and role of irrigation in agriculture follows, and the chapter concludes by summarizing the drivers of water scarcity for agriculture on both the supply and demand side.

Water resources and uses

The countries of the Middle East and North Africa are very water scarce. With 6 per cent of world population but only 0.6 per cent of the world's accessible renewable water, the Middle East and North Africa region has the lowest renewable water resources per capita of any region in the world. Worldwide, water resources average 6,400 m³ per capita, whereas the regional average is currently only one-tenth of that level (688 m³), and most regional countries have significantly less than that (see Table 1.1). Only three countries across the region have more than 1,000 m³ of water per capita. All the rest have per capita resources below that threshold and so are classed as ‘water scarce’ – and six countries are counted as ‘extremely water scarce’ (less than 100 m³ per capita). The situation is worsening. Current levels are just one third of those fifty years ago. With rapid population growth, resources per capita have plummeted from 3,500 m³ to current levels of 688 m³.

Table 1.1 Water resources in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa

Source: Aquastat

The implications of water scarcity vary by country within the region. Amongst the water-scarce countries, five are oil-exporting states where water is essential only for municipal use and where desalination allows the substitution of oil for water. Other countries are middle income states where agriculture remains important and water dependency is therefore correspondingly higher. The poorest country of the region, Yemen, is highly water dependent. Yemen's large agriculture sector uses 95 per cent of available water.

Over five millennia, countries in the region have progressively developed a higher proportion of their available resources than any other region in the world. The process of water resource development accelerated greatly in the second half of the twentieth century, with massive public investment in storage, irrigation and water supply. Today, taken together, countries in the region withdraw almost 80 per cent of the available water: this compares to less than 30 per cent for the next region – South Asia – and to a worldwide average of just 10 per cent.

Reflecting water scarcity, the region also has the highest level of water storage in the world. In view of the scarcity of water and the seasonality of flows, and also the high proportion of water which would otherwise flow unused to the sea, a number of countries have built significant inter-seasonal and long term storage capacity – see Table 1.2. In some countries, the scope for further storage is little, except for small hill dams and water harvesting. However, storage could probably be increased in some countries where water still runs to seas or sinks – Lebanon is one example.

Table 1.2 Water storage in the countries of the region

Source: Aquastat.

The source of water varies greatly by country, and consequently countries face varied challenges in water resource management. In a group of arid or semi-arid countries which nonetheless enjoy some rainfall, the sources of water are predominantly rainwater, storage and diversion from internal rivers and groundwater. This group includes Morocco, Lebanon, Tunisia and Algeria. These countries face the particular challenge of climate change. In a group of countries where there is little rainfall but where large rivers flow in from outside the national territory, the main source of water is transboundary water stored and diverted within national territory. This group includes Iraq, Egypt and Syria. Jordan benefits from the Yarmouk which is fed from both Syrian and Jordanian territory. These countries face the particular challenge of dependence on upstream riparians for the water resource. For hyper-arid countries where there is little or no rainfall, the predominant source of water is groundwater, often non-renewable. This group includes the states of the Arabian Peninsula, plus Libya and the Palestinian Territories. These countries face the particular challenge of depletion of non-renewable water resources.

Water scarcity is increasing in the region. With population growth and the changes in the pattern of demand that attend urbanization and industrialization, water scarcity is growing, and with it pressure for reallocation of water from lower value uses like agriculture to higher value uses. The population of the region is expected to grow from the present 400 million to around 500 million by 2025, and average resources per capita are expected to shrink by one third. Of this drop, about four-fifths is attributed to increased population, and the balance to reduction of supply through climate change impacts.¹

Table 1.3 Shares of water by sector for countries of the region

Source: Aquastat; World Bank 2007a: 148.

Water uses by sector

All countries of the region use most of their water for agriculture (see Table 1.3). Five countries use more than 90 per cent of their abstractions for agriculture, and a further five use more than 80 per cent. Only two countries use less than two-thirds of the water they withdraw in agriculture.

Climate and farming systems

Climate

Most of the Middle East and North Africa is arid to hyper-arid, with agriculture possible only under irrigation. The dry areas in the region – those with rainfall under 300 mm a year – account for 90 per cent of the land (see Table 1.4). In these areas, agriculture can only be practised with various forms of irrigation, including water harvesting. The main land use is pastoral. These areas contain less than 30 per cent of the agricultural population.

The temperate, higher rainfall areas have a Mediterranean climate, typically long dry summers and mild wet winters. However, even in these areas it is only in restricted parts of some countries that rainfall is enough to grow crops without irrigation. These areas account for less than 10 per cent of the land area – but nearly half of the agricultural population.

Table 1.4 Precipitation and aridity in countries of the region

Source: Aquastat.

In addition to low rainfall, the region is also characterized by high variability of rainfall. All regional countries experience the unusual and problematic combination of low precipitation and high variability, which not only increases the need for irrigation to bridge dry spells but also makes more uncertain the availability of springs, stream flow and shallow groundwater which are directly recharged by current rainfall.

Farming systems

Regional farming systems are diverse, varying by geography, climate and natural resource endowments. In fact, the character of the multiple farming systems in the region (see Table 1.5) is determined in large part by the availability and reliability of water sources. In the higher rainfall areas, which account for less than 10 per cent of the land area, combined cropping and livestock systems support almost half (48 per cent) of the agricultural population. Large scale irrigated areas cover less than 2 per cent of the land area, but account for 17 per cent of the agricultural population.²

In rainfed agriculture, relatively low-yielding and lower value cereals predominate. Because precipitation occurs over most of the Maghreb and Mashriq in winter, rainfed crops are grown in the winter months, maturing for harvest generally in spring and early summer. The main rainfed crops are wheat, barley, legumes, olives, grapes, and fruits and vegetables. Grain production accounts for two-thirds of the cultivated area (against a world average of 46 per cent). Yields for rainfed crops vary widely, depending on the farming system, but are generally below world averages.

Table 1.5 Principal farming systems of the Middle East and North Africa

Source: FAO 2001; World Bank 2013.

By contrast, yields under irrigation are relatively high by global standards. Irrigated areas are cultivated all year round, with peak demand for irrigation water during the dry summer months. Under irrigation, yields can be very good, with yields of irrigated wheat in Egypt for example averaging 6.5 t/ha.

A wide range of higher value crops is grown. Fresh fruit and vegetable production accounts for about 10 per cent of the cropped area region-wide, but for a much higher share in countries practising intensive irrigated agriculture (Egypt 20 per cent, Jordan 28 per cent, Lebanon 37 per cent).³

Livestock are integrated in all farming systems, providing important synergies and complementarities between and within systems – from extensive pastoralism to feedlots in peri-urban agriculture.

The contribution of agriculture

Economic importance of rural areas and of agriculture in the region

Rural areas and agriculture remain very important in most countries of the region. Despite the pace of urbanization, there are still about 170 million rural people in the region. Rural population growth rates – 1.6 per cent a year 1990–2004 – are high, and the rural population is expected to continue growing at over 1 per cent through to 2030. Most rural people are involved in farming. Almost two-fifths (38 per cent) of the region's households are still engaged in farming. Of the total economically active population of 126 million, 48 million (38 per cent) are engaged in agriculture, ranging from under 5 per cent in Lebanon and the Gulf states to over 50 per cent in Yemen.⁴ Because most farmers are relatively poor, and because poverty is predominantly a rural phenomenon, agriculture contributes significantly to poverty reduction and to assuring household and local level food security.

Table 1.6 Agricultural contribution to GDP in $ and % share

Source: Aquastat.

Agriculture contributes to economic growth and export earnings, contributes to domestic food supply and reduces import dependence.⁵ Region-wide, agriculture accounts for $95 billion of value added annually, with agriculture in Iran adding more than $20 billion annually to GDP, and more than $10 billion annually in Egypt and Morocco. Food exports ($20 billion annually, 4 per cent of total merchandise exports – and more than 10 per cent in Jordan and Egypt) make a considerable contribution to the economy of many countries of the region. Agricultural GDP per head of the agricultural population averages about $720, ranging from $133 in Yemen to $1,100 in Tunisia.⁶

With modernization and urbanization, agriculture's share of the region's economies has been declining, but the sector is still growing in absolute terms. The sector remains key to primary production and is the mainstay of the rural economy. Overall, agriculture contributes 13 per cent to regional GDP, and considerably more in some countries, ranging from 2 per cent in Jordan to more than 20 per cent of the total – before the troubles – in Syria (see Table 1.6).

Rainfed and irrigated agriculture

Rainfed farming systems still predominate in many countries, covering 55 million hectares, more than two thirds of the region's cultivated land. Rainfed farming, largely growing cereals, provides livelihoods for nearly two-thirds of the agricultural population region-wide, and produces more than half of the value in the region's agriculture. Rainfed farmers face particular challenges of low productivity and unpredictable rainfall, challenges which are growing as climates change.

Irrigated systems occupy less than one third of the cultivated area (24 million hectares) but contribute almost half of agricultural value. Because of the generally arid climate, there is a high level of development of water resources for irrigation and relatively high levels of performance in agricultural water management. Irrigated agriculture is market-oriented and commercialized, responding to fast-growing demand from urban and export markets for higher value products. However, shortfalls persist in irrigation efficiency and in crop water productivity.

Recent trends: an agriculture already under stress

Land and water use in agriculture

Cultivable land is abundant across the region. There are some restrictions on land use due to soil suitability, but everywhere it is water not land that is really the binding constraint. Due to the arid conditions of most parts of the region, irrigation has for millennia been the principal path to intensification. As a result, irrigation has become far and away the largest water user, but now water is already fully allocated – or even over-allocated. Hence, agricultural growth in both rainfed and irrigated systems is likely to come not from new water diversions but from productivity gains, especially gains in water efficiency – getting the water to the plant root – and in crop water productivity – getting the maximum return per drop of wat...

Table of contents

• Front Cover
• Title Page
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Contents
• List of Illustrations
• Acknowledgements
• Introduction Background on the Middle East and North Africa Region
• Part I CHALLENGES: The Challenge of Water Scarcity, Climate Change and Water-related Conflict
• Part II OPTIONS: Responses to Water Scarcity, Climate Change and Water-related Conflict, and Options for the Future
• Notes
• Bibliography