1
From Regional Power to Global Superpower
What we need in this coming period is faith in ourselves, courage to do the difficult and distasteful things, consideration and forbearance for our allies, without whose confidence and help our purposes will not be accomplished.
âHarry S. Truman, address to the National War College, 1952
In August 1943, speaking before the Canadian parliament, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt reiterated a statement that he had delivered five years earlier: âThe vast amount of our resources, the vigor of our commerce, and the strength of our men have made us vital factors in world peace whether we choose it or not.â1 With this recognition, Roosevelt envisioned the United States playing a much greater role in postwar international affairs as one of the dominant powers of the global system. Yet as he and other senior American leaders began to strategize about the shape of international relations once the Second World War concluded, they had no master plan for ascending to superpower status. Further, there was no expectation that American leadershipâseen primarily at this time to mean American coordination of joint efforts undertaken by a coalition of major powersârequired massive American military, economic, and political engagement with other parts of the world, the maintenance of a huge military establishment, or continued, sustained deployments of US forces outside the territory of the United States. Instead, the United States conceived of a postwar world where the allies could maintain peace through regional hegemony.
The Four Policemen
Without intention or master plan, the United States did not want to inherit the British Empire or establish its own empire. Yet the destroyed industrial base of Europe and Asia and the killing of 60 to 85 million people in World War II (both combat fatalities plus associated war deaths) put the United States on a path to global hegemony. In 1945, the United States became the de facto global economy, responsible for more than half of the worldâs gross domestic product. Further, while there were some four hundred thousand US casualties in World War II, that number was low relative to an entire generation of Europeans, Soviets, Chinese, and Japanese that the war claimed; this demographic advantage set up the US industrial base to expand rapidly when the war ended, which was later sustained through the baby boom.
While some privately advised the president that the United States should take the world for itself following the war, Roosevelt eschewed sole global dominance.2 He conceived of the United States as one of the worldâs âFour Policemenâ (along with the Soviet Union, Great Britain, and Nationalist China)âwith each bearing primary responsibility for creating security in different parts of the world.3 Collectively the Four Policemen would maintain sufficient armed forces to discourage future aggressors and would âjointly blockade the disturber of the peace and confront him militarily if he would not abandon his aggressive stand.â4 He believed that this vision of international peace and security could cross ideological lines, accommodating capitalist, communist, and nationalist perspectives, and unlike Woodrow Wilsonâs blueprint for a League of Nations, which was predicated on liberal-democratic values, this system would be more durable.
Within each region, each âpolicemanâ would be expected to do what the United States had achieved at the 1940 Havana Meeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the American Republics. At this conference, the nations of the Western Hemisphere had agreed to form an emergency committee to take over the administration of any European colony whose home country had fallen under occupation. In addition, the countries of the region agreed âthat any attempt on the part of a non-American state against the integrity or inviolability of the territory, the sovereignty or the political independence of an American state shall be considered as an act of aggression against the states which sign this declarationâ and committed them to âconsult among themselves in order to agree upon the measure it may be advisable to take.â5 The Havana Conference signaled that a majority of Latin American states agreed with the US view of hemispheric defense and set up a pattern in the future whereby US policy would be voluntarily endorsed by a larger coalition of states.6
At the Tehran Conference (November 28 to December 1, 1943), Roosevelt built on this idea of the Four Policemen in his proposals to Joseph Stalin and Winston Churchill for dealing with postwar issues. He also briefed Stalin on US policy in Latin America, holding it out as a model for how the Soviet Union could police the Eurasian space.7 In envisioning the US international role, Roosevelt expected the United States, although serving as the de facto âchairman of the boardâ of the great powers, to work collaboratively and in concert with the other major powers in settling disputes and preventing the outbreak of further wars as well as taking over and administering via trusteeship both the overseas territories and colonies of the Axis powers. However, while Roosevelt anticipated that the United States would play a much more active role around the world, not simply in the Western Hemisphere, he was still thinking largely in terms of the nation functioning as an offshore balancer, working with the other policemen to tip the balance against aggressors that might rise. Indeed, rather than foreseeing the forward deployment of a large number of US forces to forestall aggression, Roosevelt believed that the other policemen, in the event of any security challenge arising outside the Western Hemisphere, would provide the bulk of the ground forces needed to deal with any situation, with the United States providing naval and air support when needed.8
Uniting the Nations
Roosevelt âdemocratizedâ his concept of the Four Policemen by vesting their authority within a proposed new international organization, the United Nations (UN), to which other states could add their voice, although the addition of a Security Council defined by the presence of five veto-wielding permanent members (through the addition of France because of its global presence through colonies in Africa and Asia) meant that the policemen would still bear much of the responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security in the postwar world.9 While the UN would form the backbone of international politicsâand the major powers would control the Security Councilâthe Bretton Woods institutions would form the backbone of international economics. However, just as with the Security Council, the new economic institutions were deliberately crafted to give the âBig Four the greatest voting power as well as permanent seats on the boards of directors.â10 In the proposed International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the top shareholders were envisioned to be the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union.
At the same time the international order was being shaped by diplomacy and economic policy, the US military establishment crafted plans for the postwar world that operationalized the Rooseveltian vision. The first consideration was to provide for âdefense in depthâ of the Western Hemisphere by creating âa defensive ring of outlying basesâ that would âenable the United States to possess complete control of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and to keep hostile powers far from American territory.â11 The second was to ensure that American power, particularly air and naval forces, could be quickly and easily deployed to other parts of the world from the continental United States.12 The latter was based on the assessment that North America would not become a battlefield. Instead the United States would fight its enemies abroad, and it would do so by developing an expeditionary-oriented military (a theme that we explore further in chapter 6).
Roosevelt was also confident that he had found a solution to dealing with the Soviet Union. With hindsight, we can criticize the apparent naivetĂ© of the Roosevelt administration expecting that the USSR would be a reliable partner with the United States in maintaining global security, but it is important to recall that the prevailing view in 1944 and early 1945 (when the USSR and the United States were allies) was that the Soviet Union was indeed âin a mood to accept decent compromisesâ and that it âneeds no more territory, but badly needs several decades of peace.â13 Similarly, US officials who had engaged with their Soviet counterparts at the conferences at Bretton Woods and Dumbarton Oaks, where the architecture of the postwar world was being assembled, had left these sessions confident that the Soviet Union would play an active and constructive role in the new institutions.14
In assessing the reason for his confidence that the Soviet Union under Stalin could be a responsible partner for peace, Roosevelt noted, âI bank on his realism. He must be tired of sitting on bayonets.â15 At the Yalta Conference in February 1945, after initial discussions with the Soviets faltered on a variety of issues (notably the composition of a postwar Polish government), Roosevelt sent a personal letter to Stalin on February 6th stressing the importance of finding a âmeeting of mindsâ on these matters. He noted that if the major powers could find satisfactory compromises, it would enable the continuation of the wartime partnership in order to âget an understanding on even more vital things in the future.â16 The transcripts of subsequent sessions indicate that compromise agreements could be reached, providing for governments in Eastern Europe that would be pro-Soviet in terms of their foreign and defense policies but otherwise permitted to retain their domestic institutions.17 Roosevelt and British prime minister Winston Churchill were prepared to recognize a âpre-eminent roleâ for the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe but insisted that noncommunists be part of coalition governments and that reasonably free elections be held in the region.18
Roosevelt and Stalin also again expanded on the idea of joint Soviet-American trusteeships for former colonies in Asia. Both seemed confident that they could work together to provide security for these territories and prepare them for full independence, with only a short occupation period required.19 Rooseveltâs expectation was that there would be a free flow of ideas and goods between the different spheres policed by each of the major powers, by which he hoped to prevent the emergence of rival and hostile blocs.20
By and large, Americans themselves believed that the outcome of the Yalta Conference had been positive. This included a series of compromises on Eastern Europe, Soviet entry into the Pacific war, and the creation of a new international organization. It seemed to validate Rooseveltâs instinct that the major powers could cooperate to maintain international peace. Opinion polls taken in March 1945 noted that some 51 percent of Americans rated the Yalta meetings a success, and satisfaction with the tenor of cooperation between the major powers rose from 46 percent (prior to the Yalta Conference) to 71 percent.21 In the month prior to his death, Roosevelt had, in his mind, laid the foundations for what he believed was an âappropriate international roleâ (and one that was sustainable in terms of US domestic politics) for the United Statesâregional hegemony in the Western Hemisphere and a consultative role on ensuring security in other parts of the worldâwithout committing it to being dragged into their day-to-day issues and...