Singapore Perspectives

Singapore. World

Ariel Tan, Andrew Lim;Rachel Hau

• Publisher: WSPC
• Year: 2019
• eBook ISBN: 9789811204807
• Topic: Economics
• Subtopic: Development Economics
• Index: Economics

This book is a collection of speeches presented at Singapore Perspectives 2019 by current players in international relations and leading academics and opinion shapers on how the post-Cold War world order, with emphasis on the relations between the United States and China, will affect small states like Singapore and countries in Southeast Asia — at local, national, and regional levels.

It features speeches by prominent personalities, such as Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, former Singapore Foreign Minister Mr George Yeo, and former Indonesian Foreign Minister Dr Marty Natalegawa. Each speaker presents a fresh perspective on important developments in the world today.

Contents:

• About This Book
• Acknowledgements
• Introductory Remarks (Janadas Devan)
• Session I: Singapore and the World:
  • Introductory Remarks (Tommy Koh)
  • Speech (George Yeo)
  • Speech (Wang Gungwu)
• Session II: Singapore and International Economics:
  • Introductory Remarks (Gabriel Lim)
  • Speech (Chng Kai Fong)
  • Speech (Lee Chee Koon)
• Session III: Singapore and the Region:
  • Introductory Remarks (Chan Heng Chee)
  • Speech (Marty Natalegawa)
  • Speech (Bilahari Kausikan)
• Session IV:
  • Speech (Vivian Balakrishnan)
  • About the Speakers

Readership: Students, academics, policy makers, corporate sector officials and civil society activists, and general public interested in Singapore.Singapore Perspectives 2019;Institute of Policy Studies;Singapore Foreign Affairs;International Relations;Globalisation;Asean;Innovation;Economy;Geopolitics;China;United States;Statecraft0 Key Features:

• The book features speeches by prominent personalities such as Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan; former Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo; former Indonesian Foreign Minister Dr Marty Natalegawa; Managing Director of the Economic Development Board of Singapore Chng Kai Fong, Professor Wang Gungwu, and former Singapore Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs Bilahari Kausikan
• Each speaker presents a fresh take on important developments in the world today, in particular the strategic and economic challenges and opportunities facing Singapore and Southeast Asia

SESSION I

Singapore and the World

SESSION I

Introductory Remarks by Tommy Koh¹

I would like to begin by thanking Janadas and the IPS family for giving me the honour of moderating this panel. It is a privilege that no money can buy. Professor Wang Gungwu is my Confucius and I am one of his many disciples. I served George Yeo three times: when he was our Minister for Information, Communication and the Arts, when he was our Minister for Trade and Industry, and when he was our Minister for Foreign Affairs. He was an inspiring and caring boss.

TOPIC OF PANEL

The topic of this panel is “Singapore and the World”. I hope Janadas will not be offended when I say that I do not like the narrative for this panel scripted by IPS. The United States (US) and China are very important countries, but the world is bigger than just those two countries. For example, the biggest economy of the world is neither the US nor China; it is the European Union (EU).

THE TOP 10 DEVELOPMENTS IN 2018

In place of the IPS narrative, I offer you my list of the top 10 developments in the world in 2018.

No. 1: Singapore’s place in the world

Singapore’s image, brand and soft power rose to an unprecedented height in 2018. This was due to our successful hosting of the Trump-Kim Summit, our successful chairing of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Hollywood blockbuster Crazy Rich Asians.

No. 2: ASEAN’s successful year

ASEAN had a very successful year. It managed to maintain its unity, neutrality and centrality. It was adroit in managing its relations with the US, China, Russia, Japan, India and the EU. For example, ASEAN conducted joint naval exercises with China in 2018 and will do the same with the US in 2019. Under the chairmanship of Singapore, ASEAN launched new initiatives in smart cities, e-commerce and cyber security.

No. 3: The TPP did not die

When President Trump pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), many people thought that the TPP would die. The remaining 11 members of the TPP modified it to become the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and it has come into force. It is open to accession by other countries, such as the United Kingdom (UK) post-Brexit. The moral of the story is that the US is important, but it is not indispensable.

No. 4: The Paris Agreement is alive and well

In a similar way, when the US announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, some people wondered whether it would survive without the US. The happy news is that no other country has followed the US out of the agreement. Even in the case of the US, many states, cities and leading companies have pledged to honour the commitments made by the Obama Administration. The contracting parties recently held their 24th meeting in Poland. The meeting adopted the so-called Katowice Rulebook for the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

No. 5: Peace or war on the Korean Peninsula?

In 2016 and 2017, there was a danger of a nuclear war between the US and North Korea. North Korea had acquired the capacity to strike the US mainland with nuclear weapons. This was viewed by the US as an unacceptable threat to its security. In June 2018, President Trump and Chairman Kim had a historic summit in Singapore. They signed a joint communique containing four points. The officials have been unable to agree on how to implement the Singapore communique. The two leaders are planning to hold a second summit soon. The question that I wish to pose to the two panellists is: What does Chairman Kim want? Does he want to emulate Deng Xiaoping and open up North Korea, or is he dissembling?

No. 6: Free trade versus protectionism

The conventional wisdom is that free trade is a force for good. Thinkers from Adam Smith down to the present have subscribed to this view. The theory is supported by the facts. Many developing countries, especially in Asia, have been able to trade themselves out of poverty. The same is true of globalisation. There is, however, a counter-revolution, led by the US. It is to oppose free trade and globalisation, and it is championing economic nationalism and protectionism. The happy news in 2018 is that the counter-revolutionaries have not prevailed. It is therefore strategically important for us to conclude the 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations as soon as possible.

No. 7: Multilateralism at risk

The world has grown increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Trade, travel, technology and globalisation have changed forever the nature of the world we live in. Some of our most important challenges, such as global warming and climate change, the mass extinction of species, the warming and acidification of our oceans, terrorism and mass migration, can only be solved through international cooperation and multilateral institutions. In parts of the West, we have witnessed the rise of right-wing populists who emphasise nationalism and denounce so-called globalism. They wish to destroy the multilateral institutions, such as the World Trade Organization and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). We must not allow these right-wing populists to prevail in this fight. At the same time, we must not allow the growing inequality in our societies to produce the phenomenon of “angry voters”.

No. 8: Messy Middle East

The Middle East has never known peace in the last 70 years. The dream of a just peace between Israel and the Palestinians has vanished into the desert air. The cleavage between the Sunnis and the Shiites has deepened and become violent. This is manifested in the proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has become toxic. To add to the complication, four Arab countries, namely, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have imposed a blockade against Qatar. Incidentally, all five countries are Sunni. In the meantime, ISIS has lost most of its territory in Syria and has gone international. Its Southeast Asian franchise was responsible for the takeover of Marawi in the Philippines.

No. 9: Europe without the UK

The UK is the first country to ask to leave the EU. The departure of the UK is a loss to the EU and a loss to the UK. The two sides have not yet agreed on a divorce agreement. It is only after the divorce agreement has been approved that they will negotiate a new trade agreement, which will govern their relationship post-Brexit. The British Parliament has rejected the divorce agreement. It is unlikely that Prime Minister Theresa May will hold a second referendum. We are therefore likely to see the UK leaving the EU on 29 March 2019 without any agreement. This will have very serious repercussions for the UK, the EU and other countries, such as Singapore.

No. 10: The United States and China destined for war?

The most important development of 2018 was the paradigm change in the nature of US-China relations. The US intellectual consensus on China has changed. The Americans now believe that the era of cooperation is over and that they have entered a new era of strategic competition. The competition is not just in trade but also in technology, military power and global influence. Vice President Mike Pence’s speech at the Hudson Institute on China on 4 October 2018 is a fierce attack on China. If the speech represents the Trump Administration’s China policy, then we have clearly entered a new era. I do not know what the appropriate word is to describe this new era. Is it “containment”, “cold war” or “konfrontasi”?

In preparation for this meeting, I have re-read three books: Samuel Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Michael Pillsbury’s The Hundred-Year Marathon and Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? My questions to Gungwu and George are: First, how would they describe the new era of relations between the US and China? Second, has the rise of China instilled fear in America as the rise of Athens did in Sparta? Third, are the two countries destined for war?

¹This text was prepared for delivery at the conference. Professor Koh’s full remarks are available in video format on the IPS website.

SESSION I

Speech by George Yeo¹

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT AND THE WORLD’S RESPONSE TO IT

Two hundred years ago, from Calcutta, Raffles established Singapore as a trading post of the British East India Company for the 19th-century China trade. What we are today is profoundly shaped by that history. We are now witnessing a new China trade in the 21st century which will be much bigger than the previous one. It will take us far if we flow with it because it is for this trade that we have evolved.

In the last 40 years, China’s growth has been phenomenal and impinging on the rest of the world. The Western countries, particularly the United States (US), are unsettled by the prospect of having to share global power and influence with a non-Western people. In the last year or so, there has been a sudden coalescence of anti-China sentiments in the West. The sense of economic and political rivalry is becoming more intense. When I met Graham Allison at a conference in Beijing last month, he told me that it will get much worse. The US-China trade war is only one manifestation of this rivalry.

When the per capita income of China reaches half that of the US, China’s GDP will be twice that of the US. When it reaches two-thirds that of the US, China’s GDP will be roughly that of the US, the EU and Japan combined.

It is not just the fact of China’s population that is important. China’s population will peak at 1.44 billion in 2030, by which time India’s population will be larger. What is distinctive about China is the homogeneity of its people, with over 90 per cent of Han nationality. Neither India nor Europe nor the US has the same homogeneity. For this reason, when China is united, its internal division of labour and therefore its overall productivity is awesome. But when the cycle turns, the decline is also awesome. Hence the long cycles of Chinese history.

Let me illustrate with a historical example. In 1368, Zhu Yuanzhang defeated the Mongol Yuan and reunited China. By 1405, which was a mere 37 years after the founding of Ming, Zheng He’s great fleet sailed to the Western Ocean and arrived on our shores. Singapore was an important navigation point for the Ming voyages. Ma Huan’s Long Ya Men (龙牙门) most probably referred to Tanjong Belayar. That Ming China, within a few decades, was able to generate the economic surplus and assemble the talent and capabilities to set sail so many ships over enormous distances shows how productive the Chinese economy is once the country is united and organised.

China’s re-emergence on the global stage is therefore not without precedent. Countries in Asia have seen a re-emergent China before and are going back to their history books for lessons on how best to respond to the new China. For the US, however, the tendency is to see China in its own image, and therefore to view it as a rival who can only become more troublesome with each passing year.

US RESPONSE

So it was the way Sparta saw an emergent Athens, both Greek cities, over 2,000 years ago. The rivalry between the two city-states became a contest between two alliances, which fought over many years on land and at sea during the Peloponnesian War. Graham Allison’s book on the Thucydides Trap became a best seller because of America’s growing concern with the rise of China. Last October, at a conference in Poland, the former Commander of the US Army in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, said that a war between the US and China is very likely within 15 years.

Both sides are preparing for war. They have to. But war will be madness because each has the capability to annihilate the other, and much of the world as collateral damage. However, the same can also be said of previous great wars. When popular passions are aroused, relatively minor incidents can quickly escalate. Christopher Clark wrote a famous book about how the European powers sleepwalked into the First World War. We are therefore living in dangerous times, and small countries like ours have to be very alert.

It is no exaggeration to say that the fate of the world will depend on how US-China relations are managed in coming years. Under President Trump, the US has weakened its support of international institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations, preferring to deal with other countries bilaterally. For the time being, this is advantageous to the US because of the size of its economy. However, China’s economy will be bigger in the not-too-distant future, and it is not good if China were to inherit a system of bilateralised economic relationships. In fact, Imperial China perfected the system of bilateralised economic relationships through the tributary system which, in the 21st century, is good for neither China nor the US, nor the world.

Take the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as an example. It was seeded by Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand and Chile in 2005 as a way to propagate progressively a system of free trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific. Under President Obama, the US supported the TPP, but as an anti-China coalition, which was to me a mistake. But President Trump has now pulled the US out of the TPP. Without the US and China, the TPP lacks weight. I hope countries like Singapore and Japan will persuade China to join the TPP. Once China registers its interest, the US will be forced back in. If both the US and China are part of the TPP, which will then account for more than 60 per cent of global GDP, a clear way forward for the WTO will be found. We must fight against a breakdown of the international trading system which will only sharpen economic and political conflict around the world.

The TPP is particularly important for the issue of intellectual property (IP). With digitalisation, the main value of a product is in IP. A system to regulate and protect IP is vital to the health of any modern economy. While it is wrong for Western countries to deny China the right to advance technologically, it is also wrong for China to exploit weaknesses in the current WTO system to benefit itself unfairly. Increasingly, however, it is in China’s own interest to support an international regime on IP. A recent survey by Nikkei and Elsevier² showed China at the top of a global ranking of most-cited scientific papers in the 30 hottest technology fields. China is becoming a major producer of IP in the world. US pressure on China on IP is therefore good for China in the longer term.

Underlying the concern over the cyber security of 5G equipment is the fear that China will convert its growing technological strength to military strength. The campaign by the Five Eyes countries led by the US to block Huawei and ZTE can slow China down but will not stop its advance. Many countries will also not go along because they will be disadvantaged by denying themselves Huawei’s superior technology.

NATURE OF CHINA

If China were like the US and the old Soviet Union, seeking to spread its system to other countries, then war is perhaps inevitable. But it is not in China’s nature to be a missionary or a colonising power. It is too old a civilisation to nurse such ambitions. Such ventures only lead to grief in the end. Chinese leaders read and re-read Sun Zi’s The Art of War. They know it is absolutely necessary to understand war and be prepared for it, but he is a fool who enters into war lightly; and war, once entered into, unleashes forces which are often beyond your control. The superior leader is one who achieves his objective without having to use military force, better still without the other party feeling that he has lost. Chinese statecraft avoids major surgery when there are problems, preferring instead to twiddle acupuncture points and prescribe bitter herbs. But we must expect that, as China becomes more powerful, its officials will become more assertive, especially towards smaller countries.

Being three-quarters Chinese, we in Singapore share some common cultural and philosophical characteristics with the Chinese in China. To some extent, it is easier for us to grasp China’s moves and intentions. But we cannot expect the US to take such a relaxed view. In fact, we run the risk of being accused as apologists of China if we speak in China’s defence. Realistically, we must expect a prolonged trial of strength between the US and China in the coming decades. This trial of strength will continue until the US political establishment is convinced that China does ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Halftitle
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• About This Book
• Conference Concept
• Introduction by Janadas Devan, Director, Institute of Policy Studies
• SESSION I : Singapore and the World
• SESSION II : Singapore and International Economics
• SESSION III : Singapore and the Region
• SESSION IV
• About the Speakers
• Acknowledgements