Viability on One Page
The basics of running a business havenât changed since trade began. Sure, we have the internet and social media, and digital technology is advancing faster than many of us can keep up with, but when it comes down to it, the most important part of a business boils down to a few simple calculations on a single page. Iâm talking about a profit and loss projection that shows you immediately what you have to do to turn a profit.
Tell me about any business opportunity, and I can grab a piece of paper and outline a plan detailing how it might become profitableâon a single page. My initial business plan for Paychex was exactly that: one page. I calculated what my operating costs were and discovered how many clients I needed to sell to break even. In many ways itâs that simple. If Iâm a retailer selling popcorn, how many people do I need to come through the door and buy my popcorn to allow me to pay all my bills and give myself an income? The rest is strategy, useful but peripheral.
Recently I was sitting in my car outside a video game store. It wasnât in a good location, and I watched how few people were going into the store and even fewer coming out with a purchase. The arithmetic wasnât complicated: the average price of a game is not very high, and the sheer numbers required to pay for overhead (rent, utilities, inventory, etc.), let alone an income for the owner, meant there would have to be a continuous stream of people entering the store for the business to be profitable. Letâs look at the basic math:
Annual Overhead on a Small Store
| Rent | $15,000 |
| Utilities | $3,600 |
| Employee | $20,000 |
| Freight | $1,000 |
| Professional fees | $5,000 |
| Ownerâs salary | $60,000 |
| Misc. | $6,000 |
| Total | $110,600 |
If we take the average price of a sale as $60 with a gross margin of 40 percent, this results in a gross profit of $24 per sale.
This is where it gets interesting. If we divide the storeâs overhead (bear in mind we are using the barest minimum of expenses) by the gross profit made on each sale, we can see that the store needs to make 4,608 sales per year. If the store were open 6 days a week for 52 weeks per year, which is 312 days a year, they would need almost 15 sales a day, every day. Of course, sales at Christmas would be more vigorous and the sale of used games delivers a higher profit margin, but the need to have a consistent flow of customers purchasing something every day makes it very doubtful the business could be successful at this location.
I have used this quick-and-easy, one-page calculation countless times to quickly ascertain the viability of a business concept, and after I have done a full financial workup on the business, it is usually proven correct.
Business Planning
Iâm not a fan of business plans that could double as doorstops. Whoâs going to read a thirty-thousand-word plan? Actually, Iâm not a fan of the business plan document itself, although I do believe entrepreneurs have to thoroughly understand everything to do with their business. My advice is to focus on the key points and financials that demonstrate your business concept is viable and cut the rest of the verbiage. The peripheral stats, five- and ten-year projections, and other useless elements of many business plans can be ditched; theyâre not fooling anyone. These âby the poundâ business plans are often used in an attempt to justify the authorâs claims. They are crammed with documents containing masses of statistical information and projections, or as I like to call it, âfluff.â Business plans should keep to the basics.
The second piece of advice Iâm going to give you is to keep it real. Nothing turns off a lender or an investor more than exaggerated or poorly thought-out statements, promises, and projections.
People come to me all the time with what they consider a great idea with nothing to back up their claim. These people start and close businesses every day. There is no sense of reality to what they are trying to achieve. In retail, for instance, location and the type of product they are trying to sell can make it impossible to make enough money to surviveâbut people keep trying.
To me, itâs a simple calculation, as you saw with my simple analysis above, but very few people do the math. They let passion cloud their judgment. Thatâs the myth many business books peddle: âFollow your passion,â or âBelieve it and youâll achieve it.â That sort of thinking can lead you down a dangerous path.
The most important thing when planning your business should be the accuracy of your facts and statistics. You need to be able to provide proof of the veracity of your figures. If I see a plan that states a business is going to capture 10 percent of the market, Iâm suspicious; warning bells are ringing. Today, in spite of decades of history in the market, if you combine ADP, Paychex, and Intuit (the third-largest player in payroll processing) together, they still only have less than 20 percent of the potential payroll processing market. Wildly inflated projections are common. Sometimes they can simply be the result of overenthusiasm on the part of the entrepreneur, but they can also be used to mislead the reader. Understanding your market, or the market someone is trying to get you to invest in, is of paramount importance. The same is true when buying a business, but Iâll talk more about that later.
A few years ago, someone came to me with a new HR product for employers. He was hoping to sell it to Paychexâs customers with one thousand employees or more, which he excitedly stated was 10 percent of our companyâs clients. He estimated that number to be fifty thousand clients, then he multiplied that figure by one thousand to come up with the market for his product of fifty million employees. Thatâs all good; in fact, it sounds great, doesnât it?
Guess what? Paychex delivered only twelve million W-2s the previous year. The market could never be fifty million people. Itâs easy to get the math wrong, especially if you havenât done enough research and donât have knowledge and understanding of the market and industry in which you are operating.
All too often entrepreneurs get carried away with their sales forecasts and try to make the statistics tell the story they want to hear themselves and to promote to others. In the case above, the reality is the average Paychex customer doesnât have one thousand employees; it has sixteenâand thatâs a massive difference. Projections mean nothing if the person creating them doesnât fully understand the market.
The myth of business plans is that they are used in an attempt to sell the reader on the strength of a business concept, either to encourage investment or convince a lender to commit funds. In many cases, the numbers are inflated and unrealistic at best and duplicitous at worst. Donât forget, at some point someone is going to compare your projections to your results. I repeat, projections donât mean anything if you havenât done your homework.
Another important thing not only to understand but to accept with every fiber of your being is that a first-rate business plan can often tell you not to start the business at all but run away and run fast. Itâs critical that you take a hard look at the actual numbers and be candid with yourself about what they are telling you.
As I said earlier, Iâm not a proponent of the business plan document, but I do believe that every entrepreneur should plan their business. And during the planning stages they need to be brutally honest with themselves and with those from whom they are asking financial assistance.
Whether you decide to formalize your research into an actual document or not is up to you, but what follows is an overview of the key questions you need to answer and the information you need to gather.
A good start might be to create a mission statement. Paychexâs first mission statement was âSell clients, service clients, and make money.â Sometimes itâs as simple as that.
Before I take you through what I consider to be the must-have knowledge when planning your business, Iâll tell you the three most important things investors and lenders need to see before deciding whether they are interested in supporting your business.
1. Executive Summary
This is a one- or two-page summary of your business concept, the industry, your market, and the highlights of how your business will operate. This is a quick overview, so investors can put into perspective what you are about to tell them.
2. Profit and Loss Statement
Sometimes referred to as an income statement, this is the one-page assessment I menti...