Smart Decisions in Complex Systems

Pierre Massotte, Patrick Corsi

• Publisher: Wiley-ISTE
• Year: 2017
• Print ISBN: 9781786301109
• eBook ISBN: 9781119368731
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Management
• Index: Business

Faced with ever-increasing complexity on a daily basis, the decision-makers of today are struggling to find the appropriate models, methods and tools to face the issues arising in complex systems across all levels of global operations.

Having, in the past, resorted to outdated approaches which limit problem-solving to linear world views, we must now capitalize on complexities in order to succeed and progress in our society.

This book provides a guide to harnessing the wealth inherent to complex systems. It organizes the transition to complex decision-making in all business spheres while providing many examples in various application domains.

The authors offer fresh developments for understanding and mastering the global "uberization" of the economy, the post-modern management of computer-assisted production and the rise of cognitive robotics science applications.

PART 1

1
The Foundations of Complexity

1.1. Complexities and simplexities: paradigms and perspectives

Let us begin with a summary of the notions and definitions in existence as applied to the field for the “Control and Monitoring of Complex Systems”. Such a thematic reference might seem absurd since, as we shall see, a complex system is neither controllable nor predictable. Nonetheless, the singular advantage for formalizing the vocabulary and concepts is that it enables everyone to make themselves better understood; even though terminological unanimity is not yet fully shared.

We therefore present the results of observations and work carried out for several years in the industrial field. If it is easy to put forward concepts of complexity, their implementation resists the known patterns, and the reaction of the practitioners often remains: “Everything you say about Complexity is beautiful. But then what? How can I transpose this from theory into practice? And what should I do when my classical methods are not applicable?”.

So it is important to ask a few simple questions about the purpose of our work, the complexity involved and the return on investment that we expect, as well as the career opportunities in terms of the exploitation of acquired knowledge and its evolution. The ideas that follow are not mere mental constructions, but the fruit of extensive discussions with senior representatives of the manufacturing and agri-food industry, well-known scholars and consulting firms. We have successfully produced an engineering methodology of complexity – sometimes called “Converse Engineering” to refer to a “parallel” view of phenomena – as applicable to the field of industrial process improvement and, more generally, the management of innovation within organizations.

Because this book is both an essay on complexity and a treatise on innovation, the terms and concepts used do not yet possess the formalism and the level of abstraction that could otherwise shelter them from theoretical criticism. They do, however, reflect an authentic industrial way of thought without departing from the fundamental meanings expressed by theorists.

The ultimate goal of the book is to help empower a company to better understand its complex environments, solve its management problems and improve the quality and performance of its business system and innovative ideas. Given the growing complexity of the environment, it is no longer possible to continue to want to complicate our industrial systems, involuntarily transforming them into “white elephants”; there is an urgent need to change paradigm!

1.1.1. Positioning the problem

Among the new sciences studied lately, made possible thanks to the advent of high-performance computers – which have made it possible to model systems that do not have a simple analytical description – we distinguish:

• – the infinitely small;
• – the infinitely big;
• – the complex.

Let us limit ourselves to the notions, properties and problems associated with said “Complexity”. Whatever the field, the vision of the world has become one of complexity. This is necessary; given the fact that many people now have a vague perception of a notion that implicitly involves crowds, as such it is the subject of multiple research themes which now need to be clarified.

Our thinking is linked to the fact that we are constantly surrounded by complex systems, and as a result, we are sometimes immersed within this Complexity without knowing it. This fact is so natural that we simply assimilate it into our lives. It is regrettable that most people accept it and go about trying to solve problems without ever questioning whether complexity itself cannot be called into question. Thus, we introduce the concept of Complexity (which is in itself a new paradigm) without changing the approach and without seeking other ways to approach and deal with related problems. We often arrive at sophisticated solutions, which are admired by scientific purists, but which in practice nonetheless remain inapplicable; either because they are too complicated to implement, or not easily adapted, or too expensive in terms of the resolution, or the maintenance, etc.

To counteract the excess of this “complexifying approach”, some authors have thought of introducing the notion of simplification, but can this provide answers to our problem? To clarify this term, and in light of common understanding and confusion, there is a need to compare the concept of “complicated” with that of “complex”.

One of the scientific incentives of today is to understand how, from autonomous, independent and communicating elements, a structure is organized step by step, level by level to bring about new properties. Which ones? This led us to make some preliminary observations.

While we already have a methodology to improve the management of complex systems in the field, research and development and advisory activities are still needed to meet the various needs of industry. They demand first and foremost simple, economical and rapid solutions to their problems. As we create, improve and develop an innovative technology for the analysis, management and control of complex systems, our approach is designed to limit the ever-increasing complexity of classical analytical approaches. It is the “simplexification” of the system studied that must be proposed. However, if the notion of “simplification” is already well practiced, the notion of “simplexification” still deserves to be demystified and further refined.

In what follows, we will first take time to recall some basic concepts in order to avoid any difficulties brought about through communication and understanding; next, we will discuss analytical approaches; and, finally, we will become interested in their application and, in particular, the field of organization and management methods of distributed dynamic complex systems. On this basis, we are then able to propose some subjects of study which have yielded interesting results.

1.1.2. Reminders, basics and neologisms

1.1.2.1. What is a system?

Throughout this book, we readily use the term “system” as a very general concept. As a reminder, we will use the following generic definition (Mélèse, le Gallou, Lemoigne [LEM 06]): “A system is a set of objects and/or entities, interconnected and organized according to a goal and immersed in an environment”.

In terms of an activity, a system manipulates very diverse flows of objects or information onto which it is supposed to add value. Thus, we can consider many such types of flow, such as:

• – populations: humans, animals, plants;
• – monetary: financial values;
• – physical and energy: equipment, materials produce, transport;
• – information: orders, events, data, knowledge;
• – cultural and sociological: training, innovation, motivation, aesthetics, mysticism, ethics, etc.

It is here that we introduce systems engineering as the art and the way of designing and realizing sets or complete, global artifacts (hence the word “system”). This engineering activity includes a complete set of methods and tools, for example the principles of decomposition/recombination, emergence and aggregation, convergence and iteration, etc.

In general, a company is a system; a population of people is also a system, etc. In the presence of decentralized systems, we will refer to the more global notion of ecosystem: this means both a system formed by populations, as well as the interactions existing between these populations living within a specific biotope, their environment and the sociotope resulting from the human activities taking place there.

With regard to the specific content of this book, we will use the concept of “system” based on the C.W. Churchman’s definition [CHU 79], in agreement with the notion of sustainability [MAS 15b]: “A system is a set of objects and/or entities, interconnected, organized and managed according to a given goal and immersed in a sustainable environment”.

1.1.2.2. Defining Complexity

The following definitions and basic notions, although not identical between schools, remain fairly alike with one another and express the same overall values. For our part, we refer to those employed at the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) in New Mexico since they are widely used, for example by J. Horgan, Senior Writer at Scientific American, John Casti and Richard Bellman at the Rand Corporation, Stuart Kauffmann of the same Santa Fe Institute, Per Bak and John Holland, or even Harold Morowitz, as well as other authors.

In laymans terms, the term “complex” is defined by its characteristics: a complex system designates something that is difficult to describe, intriguing, non-intuitive, non-predictable and/or difficult to understand.

According to Jean-Michel Penalva (author of the Method Sagace used at the CEA), complexity rests on three joint characteristics:

1. 1) The emergence of phenomena that is not predictable or difficult to model. The emergence is itself non-predictable because it is also joined by the notion of sensitivity to initial conditions (SIC), which expresses the fact that it is impossible to predict the course of things within a given horizon, even when it is close;
2. 2) The dynamics of evolution over time;
3. 3) Uncertainty. The uncertain nature of an event or fact is linked to the lack of knowledge and/or the prohibitive cost of obtaining and processing it.

The combination of these three characteristics induces the notion of Risk inherent to any intervention of a complex situation.

We see that it is immediately important to define “what is a complex system” in a more formal way. While many conceptual attempts and confusions have emerged, we can...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Table of Contents
• Title
• Copyright
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• List of Acronyms
• Introduction: A World Swept by Complexity
• PART 1
• PART 2
• PART 3
• PART 4: Introduction to Part 4: Overviewing Trends to Complex Futures
• Bibliography
• Index
• End User License Agreement