THE EVOLUTION OF M&A AND CROSS-BORDER DEALS
To understand the cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) phenomenon, one has to look back to get some perspectives. The M&A market is historically a recent phenomenon, which has been linked to a certain form of economic development based in particular on fungible shares easily negotiable on markets.
The M&A marketâs evolution shows a globalization of this tool as a leading business transformation mechanism. However, this mechanism of ownership change and corporate value transformation has ups and downs. And there are still some major differences between countries in terms of how cross-border M&As are accepted and used.
Moreover, the analysis of these different M&A waves over a long period of time has yielded some details about the rationale for such transactions. A wide number of parameters have been connected to cross-border deals. We try here to provide an overview of the types of factors at play (both internally in the firm and externally), with the view that most of these factors play at different geographical levels (local, national, and global).
It is also important to note that cross-border deals are far more complex to achieve than purely domestic ones. The necessity to analyze business conditions abroad and gaps with domestic business conditions is a challenging intellectual process one should not underestimate.
The M&A market has been expanding globally to new territories and new sectors for more than a century. The number of countries in the world that are aware of such transactions is increasing, and the number of sectors concerned by cross-border deals is increasing as well.
However, this general expansion and commoditization of international M&A is far from linear; the market has had upward and downward movements, much like the financial stock market.
The M&A and cross-border market has its ups and downs, and executives must understand where they stand in terms of market situation to surf on the right waves. The timing aspect of a deal is an important element of success in order to pay at the right level of multiple and benefit from positive economic conditions to quickly finance the investment.
M&A: A Resilient Market1
The global M&A market is quite volatile. The year 2014 was a renaissance for the M&A market, and this growth has continued in 2015, surpassing the 10% expected growth.2 This upswing comes after a prolonged financial and economic global crisis that began in the United States in 2007 with the mortgage crisis. This financial accident caused increased budget deficits all over the world (United States, United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, and so on) when nations attempted to cope with the economic downturn and increased unemployment. This, in turn, generated more trading chaos, this time in sovereign debt and public and private bond rates, jeopardizing, in particular, the most vulnerable countries (Greece, Spain, and Italy). To cope with this phenomenon, public austerity measures were taken to limit budget deficits (Europe). This eventually hit the global economy and caused five to seven years of gross domestic product (GDP) negative to low growth. And all of these problems have not been entirely solved yet.
In parallel, new conflicts have grown from local ones (Libya, Egypt, Sub-Saharan Africa, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine) into new global risks (jihadist terrorism, cyber-war, migrating populations). The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations seem headed into an era of lower growth, and their role as the economic engine of the world appears weakerâwith lower oil and gas prices (Russia) and growing local reactions against corrupt elites and social inequalities (China, Brazil): How will they fund their investments in infrastructure, education, and technologies? This high-level picture shows to what extent the connection of M&A and the general economic and geopolitical context is a complex one, based on a wide range of factors and not strictly connected to financial market optimism or GDP accelerated growth perspectives.
In an upward cycle, the global value of the M&A market increases far quicker than the underlying GDP. In 2014, the M&A market reached its highest level since 2007 with $3.3t of announced deals in value. This climbed to $4.7t in 2015, after two years at about a 40% annual growth rate. Actually completed deals are a bit below in terms of growth: +15% in 2014 and +25% in 2015 to reach $2.5t. These growth rates are to be compared with global GDP growth of between 1% and 7% in the most important economies. There is no quicker way for a firm to reach critical size and competitiveness. Altice reflects this hypergrowth acquisitive strategy in the telecoms and cable sector, with four acquisitions achieved in 18 months: Suddenlink ($9b of deal value) and Cablevision ($15b) in the United States and Portugal Telecom ($7b) and SFR ($13b) in Europeâamong other deals achieved by the group.
This M&A growth is based on an important but almost stable number of deals. There were 42,220 transactions announced worldwide in 2014, and 42,313 in 2015. This represents about 3,500 deals worldwide on a monthly basis compared to a low of 600â800 in the worst year (2009), or about 115 new deals every single day. This important number of deals has a direct impact on the entire M&A business: in a dynamic market, the number of commercial opportunities is high as well for investors, bankers, lawyers, accountants, and consultants. As a consequence, the number of players in the industry is high, as is the competition among them.
The average value of deals has grown more in 2015 than the number of deals. In each active M&A phase, it has been noted that the value of M&A deals (based on the firmsâ market capitalization) increases significantly.3 In 2014, 95 deals closed with over $5b of value. In 2015, 71 announced deals have been over $10bn in value, the highest level ever. M&A players (banks, corporations, private equity firms) have been able to more easily fund such complex deals. Deal value is an important factor in terms of both profits for the M&A industry and technical innovation. Mega-mergers tend to be projects where the level of high complexity and the existence of important resources make it possible to make progress on methods. Service providers tend to learn and invest in mega-projects, and then leverage this experience on smaller projects. Logically, the more a firm or country experiments with mega-mergers, the more its teams or nationals innovate and benefit from a sort of comparative advantage.4
A Geographically Spreading Market
The internation...