These days, it seems like everyone is a wannabe entrepreneurâjust as everyone used to be an aspiring actor or have the Great American Novel in a back pocket. While I have heard many clever ideas for products and services over the years, in my experience, the number one differentiator between an aspirant and a real founder is that the former is in love with his product, but the latter is in love with her business model. I have often had discussions with other investors about companies that have approached us for funding, and we all had the same reaction: âI can't wait to buy the product when it comes out . . . but no way would I invest in the company!â A product or service can be cool, or innovative, or beautiful, or even useful, but it only becomes a viable business if the aggregate economics of the value being created are significantly more than the aggregate economics of the costs of operating the business. If you are aiming for a scalable business, then you're looking further for a viable business that gets betterânot worseâas it gets bigger.
How can you determine whether your business idea has the potential to become a multi-billion-dollar unicorn? In general, there is a simple math equation that estimates basic viability by multiplying four factors:
Number of potential purchasers Ă
Percentage of capturable market share Ă
Absolute dollar amount of each sale Ă
Percentage margin of net profit =
Total potential profit
The perfect new business idea would be one that would check all four boxesâthat is, it would be appropriate for a large number of potential purchasers, be attractive to a high percentage of those possible customers, generate sales with high dollar value, and promise a high profit margin on each sale. To make it truly scalable, you'd want to check a fifth boxâthe business would need to get even better as it got bigger.
For example, if you were trying to evaluate a concept for a housecleaning business, it would be great if everyone in the world needed their house cleaned; if you had a way of locking up the entire global market and servicing every house in the world; if everyone would be willing to pay a large amount for this service; and if your cost to clean a house was low, and dropped with every additional customer. I assume you would take that business, right?
Unfortunately, these five propositions turn out not to be true in regard to housecleaningâwhich explains why no one has yet ascended to the top of the Forbes list of the world's richest billionaires by launching an international housecleaning business.
As you might imagine, business concepts that check all the boxes are exceedingly rare. However, when you look at successful businesses, you'll discover that even three out of the five can make for a viableâand even potentially scalableâbusiness.
For example, take the business of sending tourists up for a visit to the International Space Station. There's obviously not a giant market for that, since it can only accommodate one visitor every few years. But it so happens that one of my portfolio companies actually does that. Why? Because the ticket price is around $50 million per person, it has decent margins, and it has 100 percent market share. (It was also a business, believe it or not, that could be started relatively inexpensively, because its customers paid in full, in advance, before the company was required to pay the Russian government for the actual experience.) And while it's not scalable per se, the company has leveraged its experience into allied areas, such as zero-gravity airplane flights, astronaut training, and jet fighter missions.
Furthermore, when you do the analysis, it's important to be clear about what the business is actually doing. Let's go back to the idea of a housecleaning business. It would be very problematic to try to grow housecleaning into a truly large business. The logistics of service delivery around the world would make it extremely difficult to eke out a decent profit margin, and the minimal cost of entry by competitors (who need only a van, some tools and supplies, and a few employees to set up a rival cleaning company) means that you would probably never develop a large market share.
But if we're talking about something like Angie's List or HomeÂAdvisor, the first thing we need to realize is that the business these companies are in is not actually housecleaning. Instead, it is lead generation and/or booking and intermediating payment for house cleaners. Looking at in that way completely changes the equation. Your marketing and service delivery costs are at Internet scale, and therefore low and decreasing the larger y...