Theory of Games and Economic Behavior

60th Anniversary Commemorative Edition

John von Neumann, Oskar Morgenstern

• Verlag: Princeton University Press
• Jahr: 2007
• ISBN:
  9781400829460
• Thema: Économie
• Thema: Théorie économique

This is the classic work upon which modern-day game theory is based. What began more than sixty years ago as a modest proposal that a mathematician and an economist write a short paper together blossomed, in 1944, when Princeton University Press published Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. In it, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern conceived a groundbreaking mathematical theory of economic and social organization, based on a theory of games of strategy. Not only would this revolutionize economics, but the entirely new field of scientific inquiry it yielded--game theory--has since been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations. And it is today established throughout both the social sciences and a wide range of other sciences.
This sixtieth anniversary edition includes not only the original text but also an introduction by Harold Kuhn, an afterword by Ariel Rubinstein, and reviews and articles on the book that appeared at the time of its original publication in the New York Times, tthe American Economic Review, and a variety of other publications. Together, these writings provide readers a matchless opportunity to more fully appreciate a work whose influence will yet resound for generations to come.

CHAPTER I

FORMULATION OF THE ECONOMIC PROBLEM

1. The Mathematical Method in Economics

1.1. Introductory Remarks

1.1.1. The purpose of this book is to present a discussion of some fundamental questions of economic theory which require a treatment different from that which they have found thus far in the literature. The analysis is concerned with some basic problems arising from a study of economic behavior which have been the center of attention of economists for a long time. They have their origin in the attempts to find an exact description of the endeavor of the individual to obtain a maximum of utility, or, in the case of the entrepreneur, a maximum of profit. It is well known what considerable—and in fact unsurmounted—difficulties this task involves given even a limited number of typical situations, as, for example, in the case of the exchange of goods, direct or indirect, between two or more persons, of bilateral monopoly, of duopoly, of oligopoly, and of free competition. It will be made clear that the structure of these problems, familiar to every student of economics, is in many respects quite different from the way in which they are conceived at the present time. It will appear, furthermore, that their exact positing and subsequent solution can only be achieved with the aid of mathematical methods which diverge considerably from the techniques applied by older or by contemporary mathematical economists.

1.1.2. Our considerations will lead to the application of the mathematical theory of “games of strategy” developed by one of us in several successive stages in 1928 and 1940–1941.¹ After the presentation of this theory, its application to economic problems in the sense indicated above will be undertaken. It will appear that it provides a new approach to a number of economic questions as yet unsettled.

We shall first have to find in which way this theory of games can be brought into relationship with economic theory, and what their common elements are. This can be done best by stating briefly the nature of some fundamental economic problems so that the common elements will be seen clearly. It will then become apparent that there is not only nothing artificial in establishing this relationship but that on the contrary this theory of games of strategy is the proper instrument with which to develop a theory of economic behavior.

One would misunderstand the intent of our discussions by interpreting them as merely pointing out an analogy between these two spheres. We hope to establish satisfactorily, after developing a few plausible schematizations, that the typical problems of economic behavior become strictly identical with the mathematical notions of suitable games of strategy.

1.2. Difficulties of the Application of the Mathematical Method

1.2.1. It may be opportune to begin with some remarks concerning the nature of economic theory and to discuss briefly the question of the role which mathematics may take in its development.

First let us be aware that there exists at present no universal system of economic theory and that, if one should ever be developed, it will very probably not be during our lifetime. The reason for this is simply that economics is far too difficult a science to permit its construction rapidly, especially in view of the very limited knowledge and imperfect description of the facts with which economists are dealing. Only those who fail to appreciate this condition are likely to attempt the construction of universal systems. Even in sciences which are far more advanced than economics, like physics, there is no universal system available at present.

To continue the simile with physics: It happens occasionally that a particular physical theory appears to provide the basis for a universal system, but in all instances up to the present time this appearance has not lasted more than a decade at best. The everyday work of the research physicist is certainly not involved with such high aims, but rather is concerned with special problems which are “mature.” There would probably be no progress at all in physics if a serious attempt were made to enforce that super-standard. The physicist works on individual problems, some of great practical significance, others of less. Unifications of fields which were formerly divided and far apart may alternate with this type of work. However, such fortunate occurrences are rare and happen only after each field has been thoroughly explored. Considering the fact that economics is much more difficult, much less understood, and undoubtedly in a much earlier stage of its evolution as a science than physics, one should clearly not expect more than a development of the above type in economics either.

Second we have to notice that the differences in scientific questions make it necessary to employ varying methods which may afterwards have to be discarded if better ones offer themselves. This has a double implication: In some branches of economics the most fruitful work may be that of careful, patient description; indeed this may be by far the largest domain for the present and for some time to come. In others it may be possible to develop already a theory in a strict manner, and for that purpose the use of mathematics may be required.

Mathematics has actually been used in economic theory, perhaps even in an exaggerated manner. In any case its use has not been highly successful. This is contrary to what one observes in other sciences: There mathematics has been applied with great success, and most sciences could hardly get along without it. Yet the explanation for this phenomenon is fairly simple.

1.2.2. It is not that there exists any fundamental reason why mathematics should not be used in economics. The arguments often heard that because of the human element, of the psychological factors etc., or because there is—allegedly—no measurement of important factors, mathematics will find no application, can all be dismissed as utterly mistaken. Almost all these objections have been made, or might have been made, many centuries ago in fields where mathematics is now the chief instrument of analysis. This “might have been” is meant in the following sense: Let us try to imagine ourselves in the period which preceded the mathematical or almost mathematical phase of the development in physics, that is the 16th century, or in chemistry and biology, that is the 18th century. Taking for granted the skeptical attitude of those who object to mathematical economics in principle, the outlook in the physical and biological sciences at these early periods can hardly have been better than that in economics—mutatis mutandis—at present.

As to the lack of measurement of the most important factors, the example of the theory of heat is most instructive; before the development of the mathematical theory the possibilities of quantitative measurements were less favorable there than they are now in economics. The precise measurements of the quantity and quality of heat (energy and temperature) were the outcome and not the antecedents of the mathematical theory. This ought to be contrasted with the fact that the quantitative and exact notions of prices, money and the rate of interest were already developed centuries ago.

A further group of objections against quantitative measurements in economics, centers around the lack of indefinite divisibility of economic quantities. This is supposedly incompatible with the use of the infinitesimal calculus and hence (!) of mathematics. It is hard to see how such objections can be maintained in view of the atomic theories in physics and chemistry, the theory of quanta in electrodynamics, etc., and the notorious and continued success of mathematical analysis within these disciplines.

At this point it is appropriate to mention another familiar argument of economic literature which may be revived as an objection against the mathematical procedure.

1.2.3. In order to elucidate the conceptions which we are applying to economics, we have given and may give again some illustrations from physics. There are many social scientists who object to the drawing of such parallels on various grounds, among which is generally found the assertion that economic theory cannot be modeled after physics since it is a science of social, of human phenomena, has to take psychology into account, etc. Such statements are at least premature. It is without doubt reasonable to discover what has led to progress in other sciences, and to investigate whether the application of the same principles may not lead to progress in economics also. Should the need for the application of different principles arise, it could be revealed only in the course of the actual development of economic theory. This would itself constitute a major revolution. But since most assuredly we have not yet reached such a state—and it is by no means certain that there ever will be need for entirely different scientific principles—it would be very unwise to consider anything else than the pursuit of our problems in the manner which has resulted in the establishment of physical science.

1.2.4. The reason why mathematics has not been more successful in economics must, consequently, be found elsewhere. The lack of real success is largely due to a combination of unfavorable circumstances, some of which can be removed gradually. To begin with, the economic problems were not formulated clearly and are often stated in such vague terms as to make mathematical treatment a priori appear hopeless because it is quite uncertain what the problems really are. There is no point in using exact methods where there is no clarity in the concepts and issues to which they are to be applied. Consequently the initial task is to clarify the knowledge of the matter by further careful descriptive work. But even in those parts of economics where the descriptive problem has been handled more satisfactorily, mathematical tools have seldom been used appropriately. They were either inadequately handled, as in the attempts to determine a general economic equilibrium by the mere counting of numbers of equations and unknowns, or they led to mere translations from a literary form of expression into symbols, without any subsequent mathematical analysis.

Next, the empirical background of economic science is definitely inadequate. Our knowledge of the relevant facts of economics is incomparably smaller than that commanded in physics at the time when the mathematization of that subject was achieved. Indeed, the decisive break which came in physics in the seventeenth century, specifically in the field of mechanics, was possible only because of previous developments in astronomy. It was backed by several millennia of systematic, scientific, astronomical observation, culminating in an observer of unparalleled caliber, Tycho de Brahe. Nothing of this sort has occurred in economic science. It would have been absurd in physics to expect Kepler and Newton without Tycho,—and there is no reason to hope for an easier development in economics.

These obvious comments should not be construed, of course, as a disparagement of statistical-economic...