Power, National Security, and Transformational Global Events

Challenges Confronting America, China, and Iran

Thomas A. Johnson, Thomas A. Johnson

• Éditeur: CRC Press
• Année: 2012
• ISBN:
  9781466512443
• Édition: 1
• Sujet: Informatik
• Sous-sujet: Cybersicherheit

As the United States struggled to survive the recent recession, China quietly acquired a vast amount of U.S. Treasury bills and bonds. With China now holding so much of America's debt, currency valuation issues have already caused tensions between the two superpowers. Couple this with Iran's efforts to develop into a nuclear power in an area that l

1 Power Shifts and Transformational Global Events

Thomas A. Johnson

Contents

• 1.1 Nation/State’s Sources of Power Resources
  • 1.1.1 Military Systems and Power
  • 1.1.2 Economic Systems and Power
  • 1.1.3 Information Systems and Technology
    • 1.1.3.1 The Internet as an Instrument of Change
    • 1.1.3.2 The Internet as a Tool of Cyber Warfare
  • 1.1.4 Educational Systems
• 1.2 Transformational Global Events
  • 1.2.1 America and China Economic Dependency
    • 1.2.1.1 Quantitative Easing: Currency Dispute
    • 1.2.1.2 Federal Deficit: Interest Payments
  • 1.2.2 Middle East Nation/States and Iran
    • 1.2.2.1 Arab Revolutions
    • 1.2.2.2 Iran’s Influence in the Middle East
    • 1.2.2.3 Arab Spring’s Impact on the Israeli–Palestinian Peace Process
    • 1.2.2.4 The Arab Spring Revolution’s Impact on China
• Notes and References
• Bibliography

Most predictions of shifts in the relative standing of one nation to another nation regarding its global power status have been premised on one factor, namely, the projections of growth in the gross national product. Joseph S. Nye, Jr.’s recent book The Future of Power adds insight into those transformational global events that occasionally occur, by providing a set of analytical tools he terms military power, economic power, soft power, and smart power.¹ These tools can be of assistance in evaluating whether in fact a true transformational global event is occurring or whether there is a power shift among the standing of nations. This chapter begins by examining the four power constructs to set the stage for an analysis of major global events that will challenge the nations of America, China, and Iran.

1.1 Nation/State’s Sources of Power Resources

The power of any nation is traditionally measured in terms of its military resources and capabilities, as well as its economic resources. In fact, a nation intent on acquiring a major military capability must first have the economic power to acquire the necessary military tools of personnel, equipment, technology, and financial resources to sustain a well-equipped fighting force.

For a nation to truly be powerful, it requires soft power in addition to its hard power as evidenced by its military might. Soft power is simply one form of power, or one strategy of obtaining desired outcomes. A nation’s source of soft power is from its culture, political values, and its policies, which, when viewed by others, are deemed as being legitimate and having moral authority. However, if perceived as manipulative or seen as propaganda, its credibility is lost.²

According to Joseph Nye, smart power is about finding ways to combine resources into successful strategies. Since a strategy relates means to ends, this will require clarity about the goals or the preferred outcomes one hopes to achieve, as well as the resources and tactics that will be used. Smart power then provides an ability to evaluate which forms of power behavior are most likely to succeed and to gauge the probability of success. So from a nation’s point of view, the concept of smart power is the intelligent integration and networking of diplomacy (soft power) and military (hard power), used in combination to achieve one’s ends or preferred outcomes.³

A new form of power known as information power has emerged throughout the world, and this power base is built on the combination of technology and information systems. The fascinating aspect of information power is that no one nation has exclusive control over it, nor does it belong solely within the sphere of governments. Information power can be exercised by nongovernmental agencies and is fully within the reach of any individual with minimal technological tools and financial resources. Information power is growing beyond the reach of governmental controls and can, therefore, be utilized in both beneficial and harmful ways.

Today, there are major power shifts occurring within three nations: America, China, and Iran, and a series of transformational global events has impacted each nation. These transformational global events have not been episodic or rash but have emerged over at least three decades, and in some cases, even a longer time line is involved. As America, China, and Iran are addressing these transformational global events, the concept of power is fundamental to the national security of each nation.

The status of superpower for any nation interested in acquiring this level of respect from other nation/states is dependent on its acquisition of economic resources or power, military power, political power, and cultural sophistication. A nation that has the capacity to project its influence and power anywhere in the world and to sustain this power in multiple regions of the world simultaneously would have all of the necessary characteristics that would define its status as a superpower. In terms of the recent historical past, we can identify the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and America as three superpower nations. Of course, today, only America remains as a superpower, and China is clearly emerging as one.

1.1.1 Military Systems and Power

In examining the concept of military power and how America, China, and Iran have each embraced this form of power, we are interested in observing and analyzing the power shifts that currently confront each nation. For example, no nation in the recorded history of the world has ever seen the acquisition of military power that today exists in America. The combination of electronic warfare capabilities with the most sophisticated weapons systems, a sophisticated officer corps with combat experience, an Air Force with aviation equipment capable of space warfare technologies, and a blue-water navy capable of positioning assets on every ocean in the world provides a military power base. The critical question of power shift that America is addressing centers on whether its economic power will continue to permit the allocation of resources that are necessary to support its military in its current form while also providing the resources to maintain its cutting edge research and development in engineering the next generation of weapons systems.

Of the three nations, Iran is clearly not a superpower but aspires to become a regional superpower within the Middle East. Iran’s military power is based on its calculated use of its proxy armies; namely, Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran sees its efforts in obtaining nuclear weapons and the accompanying missile systems to enable its goal of achieving regional superpower status. The power shift that Iran has dealt with centers on other nation’s condemnation of its developing nuclear weapons programs and delays caused by the Stuxnet computer viruses targeting its nuclear weapons development program. Iran has aligned its interests with those of Syria, the only Arab nation in the Middle East to openly support and work with Iran. As a result of the Arab Spring and the current revolution occurring in Syria, there is a potential major power shift, which could well impede Iran’s use of its proxy armies, particularly Hezbollah, since Syria will not have the capacity, interest, and focused attention to continue its support for Iran’s use of Hezbollah in Lebanon and elsewhere. In fact, Hezbollah and Iran may well move weapons and missiles currently in Syria to Lebanon. Iran has had to maintain a low profile in the Syrian Revolution for fear of losing possible support by young Arabs throughout the Middle East.

Amer Taheri recently reported that the Islamic Majlis, Iran’s ersatz parliament, published a report on the Arab Revolution and asked for urgent action to protect their strategic interests, in case President Bashar-al-Assad is toppled. Currently, Syrian opposition forces to President al-Assad’s regime have claimed that Iranian trained snipers or agents have been used to kill demonstrators, just as the Iranian regime used snipers to kill protestors during the 2009 presidential election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran. Whether or not Iran has indeed sent agents to Syria to assist President Bashar al-Assad, Iran is bound by treaty to assist Syria against any threats to its security and stability and that includes intelligence and security issues with regard to dissident armed groups. Iran’s interest in Syria is also premised on the fact that Syria’s geographical location permits Iran a crucial role in channeling arms to both Hezbollah who operates in Lebanon and Hamas who has a reinvigorated role in the Palestine territories. Further, Syria’s location provides Iran deep water port access to the Mediterranean.⁴

China is a nation that has the ability to obtain true global superpower status along with America. While America’s economic power is currently creating major problems as a result of its $14 trillion deficit, China, on the other hand, sees its economic power growing at a rate which has now permitted it to replace Japan as the number two nation with the highest gross domestic productivity. Regarding China’s power shift in terms of its military power, it no longer is content with being a regional superpower, but now has its aim on becoming a global military superpower, similar to America.

The Chinese have been very keen observers of the military power of America, and because of their concern regarding Taiwan, they have continued to strengthen their military. Now, because of their power shift and their economic power growing at such a phenomenal rate, they have decided to shift some of their economic wealth to create a power shift in their military and to set their design on obtaining a carrier-based blue-water navy, and they have recently developed their J-20 stealth aircraft fighter. Also, they have demonstrated their capabilities in using space-based weapons, and they have the world’s largest army, with more than 1.25 million active personnel in their People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

However, it is interesting to note that China’s military strategy is based on a realization that a conventional confrontation with America would be unsuccessful, so it has developed a strategy of “unrestricted warfare” that combines electronic, diplomatic, cyber, terrorist proxy, economic, and propaganda tools to deceive and exhaust the American military.⁵ This strategy is congruent to the asymmetric challenges the United States has prepared for and is consistent with how other terrorist organizations have confronted American military power.

When evaluating a nation’s military power, one has to measure and compare the economic resources and capabilities of the opposing force. This analysi...