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Chapter 1
Brexit and British diversity
There were three Brexits:
• The Reformation which cut the links between Great Britain and the Church of Rome when King Henry VIII wanted to divorce Catherine of Aragon to marry Anne Boleyn. As the Pope refused to annul his first marriage, King Henry VIII became the Supreme Leader of the Church of England and severed the links with Rome. That was the first Brexit.
• The second Brexit was in 1940 which was a military defeat as well as an economic defeat for the UK. It had its supplies cut off. The UK came to depend on its Empire. 1940 was a moment of catastrophic defeat which gave power to the United States. It was a disaster for Britain and Europe. Britain was supported by the United States and it was the beginning of the Special Relationship. A large part of the British elite were not happy with the position they were forced into.
• The third Brexit which was triggered by the referendum on British membership of the EU took place on 23 June 2016.
51.9% of the British people voted for Brexit, while 48% of British people voted for Remain.
The Scots, the Northern Irish and London voted for Remain, while England and Wales voted for Brexit. Anti-immigration sentiment was one of the main cause leading to the Leave vote. Leavers thought that the UK was becoming too accommodating. Britain’s decision to Leave the EU on 23 June 2016 sent shockwaves across global markets and triggered a political crisis in Britain. It was a vote to retrieve sovereignty and start a new chapter in British history.
Many of those who voted for Brexit felt that they had been ignored and were angry at the political and economic establishment. The referendum offered an opportunity to display that anger.
The referendum showed a country deeply divided along mutually reinforcing cleavages around identity, age, geography, culture, and education. In Scotland there was a 62% vote to remain in the EU and in Northern Ireland there was a 55.8% vote to remain in the EU. 69% of young adults supported Remain compared with 31% for Leave. A generation of pro-European voters feel betrayed by Brexit. Great Britain remains deeply divided along these fault lines five years after the referendum. Indeed, Brexit identity has become far stronger than party identity; for while survey evidence shows that 21 percent have no party identity, only 6 percent have no Brexit identity.
On 31 January 2020, the UK officially left the EU and remained in the customs union and the single market during a transition period until 31 December 2020. The UK and the EU managed to agree on a trade deal at the last minute on 24 December 2020. Is Brexit a demonstration of a disunited kingdom? Is Britain divided? The four nations have been united gradually. Wales merged with England in 1536. The English takeover of Scotland goes back to the Act of the Union in 1707. Ireland became part of Great Britain in 1801. The construction of the Union goes back a long way: 1536, 1707, 1801. Yet the Union has never been weaker and the major cause is Brexit.
I. The Meaning of the Brexit referendum
The referendum could be seen as an act of rebellion: it was a protest about immigration, globalisation and liberalism. It was also a victory for working-class power. Around 37 percent of Labour voters, who would normally have followed the advice of their party, did not do so but voted to leave the European Union – though an even larger number of Conservative voters – around 58 percent – refused to follow the advice of their party leader and supported Brexit. But the referendum saw the largest turnout* – 72%, the highest since the 1992 general election – and the support of working-class voters which helped to swing the balance* in favour of Brexit. Half of Brexiteers were well off and had no expectations of huge economic gains but thought leaving the EU would help take back control. The high turnout in the referendum was a striking illustration of democratic commitment on the part of the least fortunate in British society.
Turnout was highest in those areas which voted for Brexit, while the lowest turnouts were amongst Remain voters. Of the four regions with the lowest turnouts, three were Remain areas – Northern Ireland, which had the lowest turnout of all; Scotland, with the second lowest turnout; and London – although, ironically, it was voters in these areas who were most insistent in demanding a second referendum, once the outcome was known.
The 2016 referendum was in fact a repudiation not only of the Cameron government but of the political class as a whole. All three major political parties favoured remaining, as did the nationalist parties in the non-English parts of the United Kingdom.
Only 156 Members of Parliament out of 650 campaigned for a Leave vote in the 2016 referendum, but 401 of the 650 constituencies supported it. The majority in Theresa May’s Cabinet had also been Remainers, as were the vast majority of members of the House of Lords. The sovereignty of Parliament was now to be constrained – not legally, but for all practical purposes – not by Brussels but by the people.
What were Leavers expecting from Brexit? Brexit was an opportunity to do things differently. There was a set of aspirations for the future. There were high hopes and there was an optimistic nostalgia to take back control and recover sovereignty. Voting for Brexit was a vote for change and it was a vote to go back to a time when Britain was better. They wanted to restore national pride in Bri...
