The Great Transition

Alessandro Colombo, Paolo Magri

• Éditeur: Ledizioni
• Année: 2022
• ISBN:
  9788855266703
• Sujet: Politics & International Relations
• Sous-sujet: Geopolitics

While the pandemic has monopolised attention over the past two years, it's far from the only story, as tectonic changes continue on the world stage and the "great transition" picks up pace.As well as the traditional dynamics of international power, torn between US-China bipolarism and the ambitions of old and new regional actors, this Report explores the other major transitions taking place. Firstly, the economic transition of a world deeper and deeper in debt and now seeing the return of state intervention. Secondly, the transition of the democracies and international law, or more precisely, their dual "crisis" in the face of contrasting models. And thirdly, the environmental and digital transitions, which will be key features of the decades to come. Intertwining inextricably with each other, these transitions will shape the major trends in regional politics and, in turn, be shaped by them. That's why Italy and Europe are facing momentous challenges, which the ISPI Report 2022 strives to outline, to equip readers with a compass for a changing world.

SECTION II

REGIONAL TRANSItION

7. The European Union in 2022: Continuity or Transformation?

Sonia Lucarelli

Covid-19, pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, variants, vaccines, No Vax, community transmission, herd immunity… all these terms were largely unknown to the public at large until the spring of 2020. Today, they are central to public debate in Europe and elsewhere. 2021 was the second year in which the Covid-19 pandemic conditioned public discourse, political agendas and the priorities of Europe and the rest of the world. It is now clear that the virus has impacted not only the public health scenario but the lives of individuals and institutions in general. While the response to the pandemic was initially hesitant and slow, 2021 saw a dramatic change of gear, in the hope of transforming the crisis into an opportunity for renewal and innovation.

Nevertheless, at the close of 2021, we found ourselves still facing not only the pandemic and the prospects it afforded for a reboot, but a great deal of uncertainty and tension in intra-European and international relations too. The pandemic effectively slowed or even halted many processes while advancing others. In a new year that is likely to be associated with new Covid-19 variants, it is difficult to imagine how the political situation will develop in Europe, let alone globally. We can, however, take it for granted that there will be no shortage of challenges. This short essay attempts to identify the legacy of 2021 and some of the main threats facing us in 2022. Whether these will lead to continuity (should we read stagnation) or transformation will depend on the capacity of the European Union and its Member States to respond.

The Legacy of 2021

In 2021, much of the political agenda in Europe was dedicated to the implementation of processes begun in 2020 or earlier. Business was therefore not limited to dealing with the consequences of the pandemic.

For a start, 1 January 2021 marked the end of the transition period in the divorce between the European Union and the United Kingdom. On 1 May, with the ratification of the last sections of the post-Brexit agreement on trade and data security, the settlement reached by the parties in December 2020 was fully implemented. Brexit seems to have created little drama for the EU; if anything, prospects for further integration have improved. Its eventual impact on the parties, of course, remains to be evaluated.

Secondly, 2021 saw the launch of Next Generation EU, the Union’s ambitious plan for economic and social regeneration. The approval of national recovery and resilience plans and the go-ahead for 22 countries to receive funds for investments and reforms provided a major boost to the European economy and also permitted the launch of a vast programme of wide-ranging structural reforms, the impact of which will be felt well beyond any immediate post-pandemic recovery. On the public health front, the extraordinary campaign to vaccinate the majority of European citizen, support for global vaccination, the adoption of the EU Digital Covid Certificate to maintain intra-European mobility, and the expansion of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control all proved valuable responses and effective investments in EU resilience. The Commission’s adoption of the European Climate Law in June 2021 (officially setting the objective of EU climate neutrality by 2050 and a reduction in CO2 emissions of at least 55 % by 2030) and its European Digital Decade proposal both went in the same direction. In the field of internal policy, 2021 was characterised by an effort by European Community institutions to monitor the state of democracy in Member States.

Developments in 2021 therefore provide the key to identifying priorities for 2022.73 Sustainable development, digitalisation and democracy were the words with which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen opened the academic year of the Catholic University of Milan on 19 December 2021.74 2021 also saw the start of the Conference on the Future of Europe,75 a courageous – and perhaps excessively bold – undertaking by the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission to revitalise the process of integration by involving the citizens of Europe, despite the serious obstacles presented by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The ambitious European Recovery and Resilience Plan put in place last year was designed not only to respond to internal challenges, support recovery and counter the propaganda of Eurosceptics, but also to boost the EU’s ability to play a leading international role, or “geopolitical” role as President von der Leyen defines it. With this in mind, and to overcome the problems that have previously prevented the EU from using its economic resources for political ends, i.e. differences of opinion between Member States and the power of veto, on 8 December 2021 the European Commission presented a series of measures designed to give it a more decisive role in EU internal (and inter-government) policy, using its own competences in the area of trade. The proposed “Anti-Coercion Instrument”76 would give the Commission the autonomy it needs to intervene in the area of international trade if a third country is guilty of misconduct towards the EU or any single Member State, and to introduce import duties, suspend scientific collaboration, and limit access to the single market, etc, with immediate effect. Whether this proposal will become law will only be seen in 2022, but the new French presidency of the Council has already pronounced in its favour. If the measure passes, it would greatly increase the power of the Commission in foreign policy.

On the theme of defence, further steps were taken in 2021 to establish Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). The European Defence Fund also became operational. Over the year, the High Representative of the European Union, Joseph Borrell, worked on the so-called “Strategic Compass”, “a political proposal to prevent the major risk the EU is facing: that of ‘strategic shrinkage’, or the risk of being always principled but seldom relevant”.77 In an increasingly complex and geopolitically competitive world characterised by growing threats, rapid technological development, climate change and global instability, the Strategic Compass serves as an instrument for improving internal cohesion on questions of security and defence, strengthening the EU’s role and international incisiveness, developing partnerships and stimulating innovation. Its supporters see it as an essential step towards a “European Defence Union”.78

Despite this, the destiny of Europe and the EU’s future international role are still threatened by uncertainty and disturbing developments. 2021 saw persistent internal divisions on questions of democracy and the rule of law in eastern Member States.79 Vaccine nationalism,80 differences of opinion regarding how to deal with the EU’s awkward Russian neighbour, and an inability to achieve strategic parity or even appear relevant on the international stage undermined Europe’s credibility as an international actor. The EU’s limited contribution to the crises in Belarus, Ukraine, Afghanistan and Kazakhstan during the course of 2021 reinforced the image of an ageing, weak and fr...