Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

Reid Hastie, Robyn M. Dawes

• Publisher: SAGE Publications, Inc
• Year: 2009
• Print ISBN: 9781412959032
• eBook ISBN: 9781483342849
• Edition: 2
• Topic: Psychology
• Subtopic: Cognitive Psychology & Cognition
• Index: Psychology

"The authors are highly respected as leading figures in the field of judgment and decision making. There are many existing books on topics related to judgment and decision making, but this book makes a unique contribution to this field because of its systematic and scholarly approach, and its breadth of coverage."
—Robert Goldstone, Indiana University

"Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes are two of the most eminent researchers in the field. I know these authors to be excellent writers and I have no doubt that their writing style will be suitable for my students."
—William Goldstein, University of Chicago

In the new edition of this award-winning text, renowned authors Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes compare and contrast the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. This book explores theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well.

New to This Edition

• Chapter introductions, conclusions, and cross-references between chapters make the text more student friendly
• An abundance of examples from areas such as finance, medicine, law, and engineering anchor concepts to the real world
• Increased consideration of descriptive, psychological models of decision making augment the original emphasis on normative, rational, "Expected Utility Theory" models, bring the book up to date
• Balance among the three major approaches to judgment and decision making: cognitive psychological analyses of mental processes and heuristics, descriptive algebraic models of judgment and decision processes, and rational models of decision making

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• Preface
• 1. Thinking and Deciding
• 2. What Is Decision Making?
• 3. A General Framework for Judgment
• 4. The Fundamental Judgment Strategy: Anchoring and Adjustment
• 5. Judging Heuristically
• 6. Explanation-Based Judgments
• 7. Chance and Cause
• 8. Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
• 9. Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences
• 10. From Preferences to Choices
• 11. A Rational Decision Theory
• 12. A Descriptive Decision Theory
• 13. What’s Next? New Directions in Research on Judgment and Decision Making
• 14. In Praise of Uncertainty
• Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory
• Index
• About the Authors