| 1 | INNOVATION DIFFUSION AS SPATIAL PROCESS (1953): TĂRSTEN HĂGERSTRAND |
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| Bo Lenntrop |
The diffusion of innovations â the origin and dissemination of cultural novelties â is an area of study which concerns all sciences dealing with human activity, including, not least of all, cultural and economic geography. (HĂ€gerstrand, 1953: 1)
Introduction
It is difficult to grasp the importance of Törsten HĂ€gerstrandâs key work on innovation diffusion â his doctoral thesis from 1953 â without an appreciation of the historical context in which the work was conceived and prepared and the fact that it was first translated into English by Allan Pred some 14 years after submission. Most notable for setting out theories of spatial diffusion and adoption, HĂ€gerstrandâs early research also contains the key to the later development of his ideas. One example is time geography, which became formalized in the 1960s, but whose conceptual roots were to be found in HĂ€gerstrandâs writing in the 1940s and 1950s.
HĂ€gerstrand arrived at Lund University in the late 1930s. His interest was directed, more or less by chance, toward migration and he started to work on a project intended to chart the entire demographic development of a considerable geographical area of Sweden from 1840 to 1940. Building an impressive collection of data, this enormous undertaking left HĂ€gerstrand with a profound empirical understanding of demographic development. At the same time he also developed a deeper theoretical proficiency, setting in motion his particular geographical worldview. More particularly, the systematic collection and analysis of data on the life courses of a population over a century contributed to the germination and growth of a foundational idea; namely the importance of analysing spatial processes.
Over time HĂ€gerstrand absorbed important theoretic ideas and trends from beyond Swedish geography. These did not emanate from the regional perspective then dominant in university teaching, with HĂ€gerstrand stating âlectures in regional geography were abominably boring ⊠Geography appeared not as a realm of ideas or a perspective on the world but as an endless array of encyclopaedic dataâ (HĂ€gerstrand, 1983: 244). Rather they came to his attention through a chance acquaintance. His future wife, Britt, was then working for the ethnologist Sigrid Svensson who was conducting research and publishing books on diffusion processes, and one of his school colleagues had a burning interest in numerical analyses and in developing computers and was an early visitor to the US.
Having gained a sound knowledge of demography and ideas on diffusion courses and simulation models, the foundations of his doctoral thesis had fallen into place. In many respects this work was to mark a decisive break with the then dominant tradition of regional studies. HĂ€gerstrandâs principal aim in his doctoral thesis was not to present a broad regional description of an area, but instead to investigate and illuminate a problem. That the material concerned a specific area, argued HĂ€gerstrand, was a regrettable necessity and not a methodological finesse which in itself marked a stand against regional geography.
Innovation diffusion: the Swedish version
For obvious reasons a doctoral thesis written in Swedish does not reach a large international readership. Nevertheless, it is informative to comment on its immediate reception, 14 years before it was first published in English. The first academic review of HĂ€gerstrandâs doctoral thesis was published in 1953 â in the same year he was awarded his doctorate. The reviewer was Edgar Kant, previously professor in Tartu in Estonia, but who had by then spent many years in Lund at the Department of Geography. Kant was widely read in international scholarly literature and he was also the first opponent at HĂ€gerstrandâs disputation.
Kant opens his review with a discussion of the respective pros and cons of research specialization. Kant was of the opinion that the disadvantages associated with specialization âbegin to become apparent when large lacunae arise leaving poorly-lit areas in border zones, as monadnocks of the total ignoranceâ (Kant, 1953: 221). It is useful to recite Kantâs concluding comments in order to relate exactly why he saw HĂ€gerstrandâs thesis as pioneering.
The author has, to a noteworthy extent, utilized new methods and established new links to neighbouring disciplines. This must present itself as innovative to those who perceive geography as indissolubly bound to traditional methods of investigation and research subjects, such as landscape analysis, which have as their only or primary task ascertaining interactions between man and nature. ⊠It may transpire that the authorâs longest expeditions into the unknown border- and twilight-zone have been but excursions leaving many areas as yet largely unexplored. Those who follow in his path can, however, draw benefit from his pioneering work and fashion new riches. (Kant, 1953: 225)
In his doctoral thesis HĂ€gerstrand investigated the changing extent of propagation of cultural artefacts. He did this by selecting six specific indicators; three for agriculture (state subsidies for improving pastures, control of bovine tuberculosis, soil mapping) and three more general indicators (postal money transfer, automobiles, telephones). The choice of indicators was guided by the need that these should be localizable to coordinates and that their development over time could be followed with a very high degree of precision. Furthermore, it was necessary that the indicators had been adopted by a sizeable proportion of the population.
The next stage in the investigation was to establish reduction bases for the indicators. This was necessary because it would have been meaningless to work with absolute numbers of acceptors. HĂ€gerstrand carefully analysed the population (or demographic) development in the region and the location and size of each of the respective homesteads and residential apartments in order to construct the âreduction basesâ against which the number of acceptors should be matched.
An important section of the thesis, encompassing nearly 100 pages, then deals with the actual diffusion process. HĂ€gerstrandâs primary objective here is not to identify specific details in this diffusion process, but rather to generalize about the characteristics that could serve as the basis for subsequent operationalization in models. However, it was important to observe certain characteristics as these generated variations in the diffusion process. A significant degree of the discrepancy between the indicators is based on the level of state intervention, for example in promoting the introduction of controls on bovine tuberculosis. Car purchase was principally a matter of private decision making, even if state legislation played a certain role. The introduction and diffusion of the telephone in the region of investigation was affected by the manner and the speed with which the electricity network was developed. Consequently, the diffusion of the six indicators reveals different courses and show how they are influenced to lesser or greater extents by planning and policy at national and regional levels. The larger part of this discussion is of more general interest, and is not confined to its historical or regional context.
With the help of this detailed empirical knowledge, HĂ€gerstrand then formulated a series of experimental, stochastic models to show how innovations spread within a population. The first model was very simple and is steered entirely by chance and provides a picture that most closely approximates the manner in which a rumour spreads through a population. HĂ€gerstrand therefore focuses on how differences in acceptance and how unevenly spread information could be modelled. Concerning the indicators for agriculture, he examines how, for example, farm size can influence the propensity to accept an innovation. In his studies, HĂ€gerstrand identifies the importance of the proximity and thus comes to deal with private information diffusion and the question of how this should be modelled. He examines the chorological characteristics of information and how migration and telephone data can be utilized to describe the extent of the range of private information. In this particular case study he finds that migration data provides the best approximation as the telephone network was incomplete at the time of the study. Furthermore, there were zonal boundaries that acted to deform the contact field.
The resulting models operated with a real, coordinate based population. The diffusion of an innovation in a population is determined by constructing a so-called mean information field (a concept still outlined in many standard textbooks on human geography), which illustrates how the probability of making contact with another individual decreases with increased distance. The empirical basis for the MIFs comprising 5 Ă 5 cells (each cell being 1 square kilometre) is grounded on migration data. The matrix illustrates the probability of a contact being made from the central cell to one or more of the surrounding cells. The probabilities are cumulated (from 1 to 10,000) and each cell is attributed an interval proportional to the probability. The matrix is centred on an individual having knowledge of the innovation in question. By drawing a random number one decides which cell (interval) is met. The matrix is used in the manner of a floating grid â i.e. it moves over the fixed population and is centred over those individuals who have knowledge of the innovation in each generation and who are prepared to spread this knowledge. In this manner the innovation is continually diffused over time to new generations and gives rise to spatial patterns of acceptors, which are randomly determined but always within the given probability intervals. Even when the rules of the game and the probabilities remain unchanged, the results of different simulations are often very divergent as a result of the stochastic factor.
In these models HĂ€gerstrand experimented with different forms of physical and social barriers. The propensity to accept an innovation was modelled (for example, a person must be âhitâ two or three times before accepting) and the degree of correspondence with the empirically ascertained patterns became increasingly close. As a result of the degree of correspondence between the actual and the modelled courses, HĂ€gerstrand was able to conclude that the key elements deciding the course of innovation diffusion had been captured. It is worth noting that all of these comprehensive modelling experiments were carried out by hand as computers had not as yet been developed. Each of the thousand upon thousand of random numbers was collated from tables in a strict order.
The first international commentary on HĂ€gerstrandâs doctoral thesis was written by John Leighly and published in the Geographical Review in 1954. Leighly, then Professor at Berkeley, was well acquainted with Swedish geography, which he had considered for several years (Leighly, 1952). Leighly emphasized his admiration of the scope and precision of the empirical work, not least concerning the map representation: âHis ârelativeâ mapping uses refinements (isarithms at numerical intervals given by geometric progressions, interpolation of isarithms by logarithmic intervals) that make it exemplaryâ (Leighly, 1954: 440). However, and in a similar manner to many other commentators, Leighly viewed HĂ€gerstrandâs interpretation of innovation diffusion and the following operational modelling as the âculminationâ of his work. Leighly (1954: 441) concludes by commenting that anyone doing research in this area âcannot afford to ignore HĂ€gerstrandâs methods and conclusionsâ.
While the attention surrounding HĂ€gerstrandâs doctoral thesis waned in the period following this appraisal, the same cannot be said regarding interest in his theoretical ideas and methodological approach. Aspects of his principal research were gradually disseminated via lectures, conferences and minor publications. Shortly prior to the completion of his doctoral thesis, HĂ€gerstrand laid out his research field in an article entitled âThe propagation of innovation wavesâ (HĂ€gerstrand, 1952). By 1967 he had published three articles on migration, two on diffusion, and one on simulation. A very widely read and often cited article is âA Monte Carlo approach to diffusionâ (1965), which directly deals with models and is published in four journals and has even been translated into Japanese.
Innovation diffusion: the English version
Although HĂ€gerstrandâs research had become relatively well known on the international scene, the broader understanding of his research remained fragmentary. Accordingly, both Gilbert White in Chicago and Allan Pred at Berkeley argued that his doctoral thesis should be translated into English. Pred took on this task as he was both fluent in Swedish and well versed in the specific area of research; two attributes which HĂ€gerstrand argued were prerequisites for the successful translation of his work. Pred also wrote a Postscript in which he introduced Torsten HĂ€gerstrand providing a detailed background to the research, and how the field of research had developed.
The book was well received. However, the fact that 14 years had passed since the publication of the original Swedish edition is at least partly evidenced by the content of a number of more critical commentaries. Quantitative geography had further developed and was quickly establishing an important set of new methodologies and theories (see Chapters 2, 3 and 4). One particular line of development concerned the statistical and objective comparison of patterns in time and space, which made it possible to elucidate more precisely differences and similarities in these patterns. In his review, Gunnar Olsson pointed out that âthe evaluation of the model was based on more intuition and visual inspection than objective statistical testingâ (Olsson, 1969: 310). None of the reviews published during the 1950s had raised this issue.
Simulation had become a popular modus operandi within the discipline, and against this background Olsson had somewhat critically stated: âIn conclusion, most of those who now experiment with Monte Carlo models seem to have missed the point. Thus it is rare that the relation between theory and model is as explicit as in HĂ€gerstrandâs own workâ (Olsson, 1969: 311). This observation further supports the proficiency with which HĂ€gerstrand had succeeded in fusing thorough empirical material with a well-developed command of theory. This is what gives his work its credibility and strength.
Richard L. Morrill, himself a former visiting fellow at Lund who also had experience of simulations, argued that although HĂ€gerstrandâs earlier work had been disseminated relatively widely, the opportunity now existed for a wider audience to discover that this was by no means a curious approach, but instead constituted a theoretical framework founded on an unusually rigorous empirical grounding. Morrill (1969) went to particular lengths to emphasize the linkages between spatial patterns and individual behaviour, and argued this represented a revolutionizing insight and a powerful break with tradition within the discipline. In a more anecdotal vein, we might also note that he concluded his review in Economic Geography by protesting against the âoutrageous priceâ of the book (then $16).
L.J. Evenden (1969) forwarded a comprehensive and positive review in the journal Social Forces. He argued that: â⊠HĂ€gerstrand allows a glimpse of a fertile imagination and, simultaneously, teaches the useful lessons that patience is a research virtue, that theory is fundamentally about something, and that reliable theory in social science stays close to this somethingâ (Evenden, 1969: 9). Evenden further argued that evidence that HĂ€gerstrandâs research had left a lasting legacy was to be found in the wide range of fields in which Monte Carlo simulation had subsequently been applied. Simulation was well known and widely used at the time of the publication of the English edition, so there was no question of its subject matter being received as breaking news. Evenden emphasized that the work represented a combination of a careful factual analysis and the best of traditional and contemporary geographical scholarship, and contended that HĂ€gerstrandâs doctoral thesis would long be considered a classic work in the development of geographical theory.
The economist Harvey Leibenstein, then based at Harvard University, reviewed the book in the Journal of Economic Literature. He maintained that it was of interest for economists who were interested in diffusion processes and location theory, as well as modulated processing of innovation diffusion. Leibenstein further contended that it was difficult to assess the value of the modelsâ predictions, in spite of all the empirical information. He also found the approach altogether mechanical â a critique which one can at least partly agree upon â if one did not take into consideration the fact that the translated thesis was 14 years old. A further point made by Leibenstein was th...