Population and Economic Growth

12 Key excerpts on "Population and Economic Growth"

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  Economic Growth

  International Edition

  • David Weil(Author)
  • 2016(Publication Date)
  • Routledge

    (Publisher)

  CHAPTER 4 Population and Economic Growth With every mouth God sends a pair of hands. —An old saying T his adage provides a good starting point for thinking about the impact of population on economic growth. It makes the point that changes in population affect both the consumption needs of an economy (the number of mouths) and the productive capacity of the economy (the number of hands). If the only thing used to produce output was labor, then the interaction of Population and Economic Growth would not be very interesting: Twice as many people would mean twice as much output, so the size of the population would not affect output per capita. If, however, there are inputs to production other than labor, then adding one person adds one mouth and one pair of hands but no more of the other factors. In per-capita terms, more people will result in less of everything else. This simple observation is the basis for including population in models that attempt to explain income per capita. As we will see, population can be a determinant of income in two different ways. In some contexts the size of the population is important, whereas in others the growth rate is important. Specifically, when we think about the interaction of population with some fixed natural resource, the important aspect is the size of the population. Holding other factors constant, a country with a lot of people relative to the amount of resources will be poorer. But when we think about the interaction of population with a producible input such as capital, then the relevant aspect is the growth rate of population. Of course, over time, the speed with which a population grows is what determines how many people there are. But the words over time make a big difference. Countries can have slow population growth and a large population relative to their resources. Or they can have rapid population growth but a population that is small relative to their resources. Japan and Chad present examples of these two cases

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  Socio-Economic Development

  • Adam Szirmai(Author)
  • 2015(Publication Date)
  • Cambridge University Press

    (Publisher)

  Intermediate Sources of Growth and development Population policies Ultimate Sources of Growth and Development Demographic characteristics (population growth, population size, population density) Economic and Social Institutions Culture and Attitudes Proximate Sources of Growth Population Labour supply O = f [(K, L, R) e ] + a + t Income per capita Figure 5.1 Population and Economic Growth 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. As an introduction to this chapter on population and development, we distinguish eight types of relationships between demographic and economic developments, which are sum-marised in Box 5.1 . Apart from population growth, population size and population density are also important demographic variables. Several countries in Latin America and Africa have rapid population growth, but relatively low population density. Low population density discourages large-scale investment in infrastructure. Population size in fl uences the absolute volume of required investment and the size of domestic markets. Countries with large domestic markets can better afford to follow an inward-looking path of economic development than small countries (Myint, 1980 ). BOX 5.1 Relationships between population change and economic development 1. Population growth supplies the labour , which is available as an input into economic production (see Figure 5.1 ). The availability of labour with various quali fi cations, and levels of education and health, in fl uences the productive potential of a society. 2. The growth of population, on the other hand, also gives rise to employment challenges . Can economic development provide a rapidly growing labour force with suf fi cient productive and paid employment, or does open or disguised unemployment increase? 3. A rapidly growing population can stimulate the growth of production by providing an expanding market for goods and services.

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  Economic Analyses Using The Overlapping Generations Model And General Equilibrium Growth Accounting For The Japanese Economy: Population, Agriculture And Economic Development

  Population, Agriculture and Economic Development

  • Mitoshi Yamaguchi, Tomoko Kinugasa(Authors)
  • 2014(Publication Date)
  • WSPC

    (Publisher)

  Chapter 6

  Interrelationship between Population and Economy*

  Introduction

  Research into interrelationships between Population and Economic Growth have been made very energetically. In this chapter, an attempt is made to study and evaluate this research into Population and Economic Growth. The chapter is divided into three parts. The first observes the effect of population growth on the economy. The second looks at the effect of economy on the population growth. The third looks at the interrelationships between Population and Economic Growth. Although we have many studies on the effect of population growth on the economy, we still need more research on the other two fields. In 1970s, many people have discussed the arguments concerning the relationships between population growth and per capita income growth by using the data of the World Bank Atlas. For example, Guillaumont [1976] at the population conference in France in 1973 divided the whole world into advanced and less developed countries and came to the conclusion that countries with a middle rate of population growth in each section had the largest economic growth rate. However, there are also a fairly large number of people who assert that there is no relationship between Population and Economic Growth. In fact, we have to consider many factors such as sociological, economical, natural and medical factors when we consider the relationships between Population and Economic Growth.

  Therefore, it would not be wise to conclude that there is no relationship between Population and Economic Growth just by observing the correlation which appears in a figure. A more positive way would be to make a factor analysis and to consider both positive and negative effects of population growth. Fortunately, we can see many articles recently which observe the interrelationship between Population and Economic Growth. However the causality of interrelationships is not simple as P. Mombelt who states that Population and Economic Growth have a loose and not tight relationship. In this way, a problem of Population and Economic Growth is very complicated in character and we cannot consider a too simple causality for them. However, it is our duty to make a further research and solve these complicated causalities. We economists have to use more energies for studying these problems, as Hazledine and Moreland [1977] state. In this chapter, we first consider the effects of population growth on the economy. Second, we consider the effects of the economy on population. Third, we consider the interrelationships between population and economy.

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  A Life against the Grain

  The Autobiography of an Unconventional Economist

  • Julian L. Simon, Julian Simon(Authors)
  • 2018(Publication Date)
  • Routledge

    (Publisher)

  More than a century ago, Frederic Bastiat’s famous essay, “What is Seen and What is Not Seen,” taught that economic policy analysis frequently is led into error by disregarding effects which are “unseen” because they are remote either in time or in causal nexus. Population economics requires the long view even more than do most other fields in economics, if for no other reason than that two decades must pass following the birth of a child before the important effects of that child begin to manifest themselves, effects that are easy to overlook when focusing attention on the costs incurred during childhood. Yet the field of population economics perversely has mostly stayed in the self-imposed straitjacket of short-run analysis, the “commonsense” period that so appeals to journalists; that short-run analysis boils down to the deduction that more people sharing the same output, or the same land and tools, implies less output per person.

  Though the day-to-day work I have done in population economics has been intended to produce new knowledge by using technical analysis of models and data, the conclusions often have emerged as implicit criticisms of faulty thinking, especially the bad thinking that people consider to be “common sense” (for example, there must be a limit to agricultural production).

  Since World War II, the fallacy of focusing on the short-run effects of population growth has caused (or allowed) such institutions as the World Bank, the U.S. State Department’s Agency for International Development (AID), the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), and the environmental organizations to mis-analyze such world development problems as supplies of natural resources, starving children, illiteracy, pollution, and slow growth. Because these institutions have focused their attention on population growth, they have not recognized that the key factor in a country’s economic development is its economic and political system. The centrality of the economic-political structure of a country is no longer the subject only of theory and ideology but now has been demonstrated conclusively by empirical analysis. This misplaced attention to population growth has resulted in disastrously unsound economic advice being given to developing nations.

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  Economic Development

  • E. Wayne Nafziger(Author)
  • 2012(Publication Date)
  • Cambridge University Press

    (Publisher)

  The scale of production might have been included in Equation 8-1. With a given technology, increasing the inputs – labor, capital, natural resources, and entrepreneurship – by some multiple may not result in the same multiplication in output because of economies or diseconomies of scale. Because our focus is on income or production per worker (or per person), we could restate Equation 8-1 with the independent variable Y / L or Y / P (with P , population). In this case, the production function would become more complex. Chapters 8 – 13 analyze factors that influence economic growth. The next three chapters examine the role of the human population in economic growth. This chap-ter examines how population growth affects economic development and how fertility affects labor force participation and development. Chapter 9 looks at how popula-tion growth affects labor force growth and unemployment, and Chapter 10 examines what factors affect labor skills – a major component of population quality. Chap-ter 11 discusses capital and technology; Chapter 12 entrepreneurship; and Chapter 13 natural resources, land, and the environment in economic growth. Scope of the Chapter From 1980–2011, the world’s population grew at 1.6 percent yearly, from 4.4 billion to 7.0 billion. During the same period, the population of less-developed countries (LDC) grew at 2.0 percent yearly, from 3.2 billion to 5.7 billion. This chapter explains this phenomenal growth rate and looks at its implications. After a brief historical sketch, we consider population growth in developed coun-tries (DCs), LDCs, and by world regions. Next we explain the rapid but decelerating growth in LDCs by looking at trends in death and birth rates during a period of demographic (population) transition. With this background, we assess the effect of population growth on economic development and review the work of classical economist Thomas Robert Malthus, who argues that population growth outstrips economic growth.

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  From Malthus' Stagnation to Sustained Growth

  Social, Demographic and Economic Factors

  • Bruno Chiarini, Paolo Malanima, Gustavo Piga(Authors)
  • 2012(Publication Date)
  • Palgrave Macmillan

    (Publisher)

  142 Population, Earth Carrying Capacity and Economic Growth Giovanni Scarano* University of Rome “Roma Tre” This paper deals with the interaction between population growth and capital accumulation in an ecological perspective. Some demographic behaviours are modelled taking an eco- logical economics approach and combining the effects of tech- nical progress geared to prevent decline in the marginal productivity of capital with the logistic growth model. Con- nection between the biological side and the economic side of the model is achieved by connecting the ecological concept of carrying capacity with that of subsistence, a very “classical” economic concept, strictly consistent with Malthus’ original approach. The economic analysis of the model is implemented with a growth accounting approach. [JEL Classification: Q56, Q57, O41, J10]. * . The author wishes to thank the anonymous referees for very useful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies. Keywords: population growth, carrying capacity, economic growth, subsistence. Population, Earth Carrying Capacity and Economic Growth 143 1. - Introduction This paper deals with the relation between economic growth and the earth’s carrying capacity for mankind. During the last few decades economists have almost totally neglected the re- lation between Population and Economic Growth in a truly Malthusian perspec- tive, that is, focusing on the problem of the population pressure on finite natural resources. Many endogenous growth models have dealt with human capital ac- cumulation, but this is a topic which, even though partially related to such de- mographic dynamics as that of fertility, concerns above all the supply side of the models and the technical change it entails. Thus, it is quite different from the classical demographic issues, such as population pressure on natural resources and the con-sequent repressive feedbacks.

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  Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 1993

  • United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(Author)
  • 1993(Publication Date)
  • United Nations Publications

    (Publisher)

  VI. POPULATION DYNAMICS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT T here is a two-way interaction between population and deve-lopment, the extent and complexity of which may vary in time and context. The size and composition of the existing population and its growth over time have an impact on development. Develop-ment itself also affects various demographic characteristics, includ-ing population growth rate. At the conceptual level, there is an agreement on the two-way interaction, but there are differences of views on their magnitude and the direction which tend to be highly context-specific.1 The task of measurement and identification is additionally complicated by the fact that interaction between population and development is mediated through a variety of channels, such as health, education, and labour force participation. While recognizing these com-plexities, the present work primarily examines the emerging population dynamics in the region and its implications for selected deve-lopment issues that countries will have to confront. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the major highlights of the evolution of population policies in the region. 1 United Nations Population Fund, “Population and development strategies: review of the past and future prospects”, presented at Round Table on Population and Development Strategies, Bangkok, 17-19 November 1993. THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE Growth trends During the last few decades, the world as a whole experienced what is often termed as a “popu-lation explosion”. Much of this explosive growth has occurred in the poorer parts of the world. A rapid decline in mortality and slower decline in fertility rates have been responsible for rapid population growth in the develop-ing world during the last three decades. The world population, after remaining static for centuries, started growing with the onset of the industrial revolution in Europe. By 1825, world population is esti-mated to have reached 1 billion.

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  The Ultimate Resource 2

  • Julian Lincoln Simon(Author)
  • 2020(Publication Date)
  • Princeton University Press

    (Publisher)

  Economic Growth Rates Related to Population Density in LDCs of Singapore demonstrates that Hong Kong is not unique. Two such examples do not prove the case, of course. But these dramatic illustrations are backed by the evidence from the aggregate sample of countries, and hence do not mis-lead us. Hong Kong is a special thrill for me because I first saw it in 1955 when I went ashore from a U.S. Navy destroyer. At the time I felt great pity for the thousands who slept every night on the sidewalks or on small boats. It then seemed clear to me, as it must have to almost any observer, that it would be impossible for Hong Kong to surmount its problems—huge masses of impov-erished people without jobs, total lack of exploitable natural resources, more refugees pouring across the border each day. But upon returning in 1983, I saw bustling crowds of healthy, vital people full of hope and energy. No cause for pity now. The most important benefit of population size and growth is the increase it brings to the stock of useful knowledge. Minds matter economically as much as, or more than, hands or mouths. Progress is limited largely by the availabil-ity of trained workers. The Role of the Political-Economic System A crucial element in the economics of resources and population is the extent to which the political-social-economic system provides personal freedom from government coercion. For an economy to grow, individuals require a social and economic framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks, enabling their talents to flower and come to fruition. The key THE BIG P I C T U R E II: LDCs 4 9 5 elements of such a framework are economic liberty, respect for property, and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforced equally for all.

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  The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth

  • Thomas J. Espenshade, William J. Serow, Thomas J. Espenshade, William J. Serow(Authors)
  • 2013(Publication Date)
  • Academic Press

    (Publisher)

  While there seems to be little doubt that increasing growth of population leads The Economics of Declining Population Growth: Current Literature 21 to diminishing returns to fixed factors and a dampening of the aggregate capital-labor ratio, there are a variety of interactions about which we know comparatively little. These include the impact of population growth on the rate of technical progress; the role of population growth where the pool of investable resources depends not only on the level of income, but also on its source; the intermediate-run effects of population growth where technological change is partially embodied in new capital; and the influence of population growth on the level of human capital and productivity of the labor force. Despite the large volume and high quality of the empirical studies that will be discussed subsequently, Kelley's remarks provide an excellent agenda for further theoretical and empirical investigation into the economic and social consequences of a cessation of population growth. While most theoretical investigation has dealt with the influence of slow or no population growth on the level of economic activity, there have been some theoretical investigations into somewhat different top-ics. Denton and Spencer (1973) have constructed a model designed to test the cyclic effects on the economy of what they term demographic shocks. If, for example, the attainment of the replacement level of fertility were initially accomplished by a sharp reduction in the level of period fertility, a demographic shock would occur that, after an initial lag, would lead to relatively long swings in economic variables. While any shock produces disequilibrating effects, the greater the relative shock, the greater the degree of disequilibration. Hence, in evaluating the economic influence of a cessation of population growth, the time path followed by fertility can be of paramount importance.

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  Development Economics

  Theory and Practice

  • Alain de Janvry, Elisabeth Sadoulet(Authors)
  • 2021(Publication Date)
  • Routledge

    (Publisher)

  CHAPTER ELEVEN Population and Development Population growth is both an asset and a liability for development. It is an asset in that a growing population is a source of youthful labor, social security contributions, and expanding markets. At the household level, children are sources of income and protection for their parents. Poor people typically prefer to have larger numbers of children, as both a choice and a necessity. But they are also a liability. From a simple arithmetical standpoint, population growth subtracts from GDP growth in determining growth in per capita income. It also tends to be a source of declining land per capita, food insecurity, environmental degradation, congestion externalities, and urban blight as well as a drain on public goods and services. There are both positive and normative questions associated with population growth. Positive questions include: What are the determinants of fertility behavior? Why do countries go through a demographic transition with a phase of exploding population growth? Why is there a decline in population growth as per capita income rises? How do countries benefit from a one-time demographic dividend as fertility declines while the share of elderly people in the population is still relatively low? Normative questions include: How can we reduce population growth if it is deemed excessive? If contraception is the main instrument to reduce fertility, when is it more important to focus on the supply side and when on the demand side of contraception? Our thesis in this chapter is that children fulfill three functions for parents: they are sources of income, protection, and satisfaction. The transition from high to low fertility—the demographic transition—is associated with children losing their income and protection functions for parents, maintaining their universal satisfaction function increasingly through quality as opposed to quantity.

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  Development Economics

  Theory and Practice

  • Alain de Janvry, Elisabeth Sadoulet(Authors)
  • 2021(Publication Date)
  • Routledge

    (Publisher)

  Chapter Eleven

  Population and Development

  Population growth is both an asset and a liability for development. It is an asset in that a growing population is a source of youthful labor, social security contributions, and expanding markets. At the household level, children are sources of income and protection for their parents. Poor people typically prefer to have larger numbers of children, as both a choice and a necessity. But they are also a liability. From a simple arithmetical standpoint, population growth subtracts from GDP growth in determining growth in per capita income. It also tends to be a source of declining land per capita, food insecurity, environmental degradation, congestion externalities, and urban blight as well as a drain on public goods and services. There are both positive and normative questions associated with population growth. Positive questions include: What are the determinants of fertility behavior? Why do countries go through a demographic transition with a phase of exploding population growth? Why is there a decline in population growth as per capita income rises? How do countries benefit from a one-time demographic dividend as fertility declines while the share of elderly people in the population is still relatively low? Normative questions include: How can we reduce population growth if it is deemed excessive? If contraception is the main instrument to reduce fertility, when is it more important to focus on the supply side and when on the demand side of contraception?

  Our thesis in this chapter is that children fulfill three functions for parents: they are sources of income, protection, and satisfaction. The transition from high to low fertility—the demographic transition—is associated with children losing their income and protection functions for parents, maintaining their universal satisfaction function increasingly through quality as opposed to quantity. Understanding the determinants of fertility is key to designing population policy. With world population reaching 7.7 in 2019 and predicted to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and nearly 11 billion in 2100 (UN Department for Economic and Social Affairs, 2019), population policy is a key, yet much neglected, aspect of international economic development.

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  Population Geography

  Pergamon Oxford Geographies

  • John I. Clarke, W. B. Fisher(Authors)
  • 2013(Publication Date)
  • Pergamon

    (Publisher)

  Population Theories The examination of differential fertiUty and mortaUty showed how Uttle is known of the main influences upon population growth. Consequently, theories of population growth have been proposed, trying to explain the main influences, espcdaUy with respect to fertiUty. Coontz has classified these theories into three categories: biological, cultiural and economic. Biological theories stress that the law regulating human population growth is basicaUy the same as that regulating the growth of plants and animals — that demographic growth is not unique. This view has found diflferent exponents in the last two centuries, relating fertiUty to nutrition and density. The BraziUan dietician De Castro, for example, postulated in his Geography of Hunger that there is an inverse relationship between protein intake and human fertiUty. With sweeping generalizations he correlated low productivity and high reproductivity to hunger, especiaUy specific hungers of proteins, minerals or vitamins, and blamed coloniaUsm for much of the appalling hunger in the world today. Pearl and Reed are best known for their mathe- Population Growth 151 matical representation of human population growth known as the logistic curve (first proposed by the Belgian Verhulst nearly a century earher, in 1838). It is based on the assumption that there are cycles of population growth reflecting changes in the economic organization of society, each cultural epoch having a different cycle. One important point about the logistic curve is that the proportional rate of population increase actually falls continuously, a concept backed by the contention that population growth is regulated by density; increasing density is said to lower fertihty. Evidence for this con-tention was drawn from experiments with fruit fhes and yeast cells — not always relevant to human populations. Cultural theories of population growth emphasize the importance of man's character and culture in influencing his fertihty.

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