Demographic Transition Model

10 Key excerpts on "Demographic Transition Model"

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  eBook - ePub

  Population and Development

  • W.T.S. Gould(Author)
  • 2015(Publication Date)
  • Taylor & Francis

    (Publisher)

  3 How development affects population: demographic and mobility transitions

  This chapter provides:

    discussion of the concept of demographic transition, elaborated as one of the main theories and models used in population analysis;

    description of the four stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), and the interplay of mortality and fertility change over time;

    critique of contemporary relevance of DTM to the analysis of how and why development drives population change in Developing Countries;

    discussion of the DTM as an empirical description, as an analytical tool and as a predictive device;

    comparison of the DTM with two other transition or stage models, the mobility transition and the epidemiological transition, to explain further key aspects of population change.

  The previous chapter has examined how population change can affect development; this chapter now explores the other side of the reflexive relationship between population and development – how and why populations change in response to patterns and processes of development. In which respects and to what extent has ‘development’, broadly defined and not merely rising incomes, been a principal driver of population change throughout human history, and to what extent is contemporary population change being driven by the economic and social trends and processes we associate with ‘development’? These interrelated questions are addressed in three distinct sections. The first part of the chapter considers the historical experience of natural population change as summarised in theories of population change that are collectively known as demographic transition theory (DTT), and summarised by the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). These ideas seek to provide a basic understanding of the logic and processes of long-term population change. Implicit in this theory is the assumption that there is a universal global model of population change, and that it is driven by development. The second section of the chapter introduces migration into the general model to explore the mobility transition within a global context. The final section considers the contemporary experience of national change in Developing Countries and how some of the range of assumptions and conclusions of DTT and the DTM have influenced both development policies and population policies.

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  Advanced Introduction to Demography

  • Wolfgang Lutz(Author)
  • 2021(Publication Date)
  • Edward Elgar Publishing

    (Publisher)

  The Unified Demographic Theory introduced here is based on a multi-dimensional approach and has three constituent demographic theories which are closely linked to each other. First, the theory of demographic metabolism (DM) will be introduced and discussed with regard to its applications in the following section. It is so powerful as a predictive tool that it can help to anticipate future trends not only in the usual demographic variables but also in other highly relevant fields such as values, national identities and deeply engrained behavioral patterns – if these characteristics and patterns are established in young adulthood and then essentially maintained unchanged through the rest of the life course. If these conditions are met, social changes in a broad array of topics can be anticipated for decades into the future through the process of intergen- erational replacement, which was termed by Ryder (1965) “demographic metabolism”. Since this approach of cohort-specific analysis implicitly or explicitly lies at the basis of all modeling of demographic changes it will be described first. The theory of demographic transition (DT) is the oldest and most promi- nent of the three demographic theories and essentially says that a fertility transition based on conscious family limitation follows a mortality decline (with a varying time lag) and that, once started, it will continue reaching virtually all segments of a given population resulting in fertility around or below replacement and that this is an irreversible process. All existing long-term population projections are, in one way or another, based on this theory of demographic transition.

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  Population Growth

  The Vital Revolution

  • Ronald Freedman(Author)
  • 2017(Publication Date)
  • Routledge

    (Publisher)

  Chapter 2THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: FROM HIGH TO LOW BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES George J. Stolnitz

  Demographic transitions rank among the most sweeping and best-documented historical trends of modern times. The following discussion of transition patterns summarizes past declines of vital rates and the prospects for future ones in comparatively global fashion. Its focus is on modern population movements in broad terms, on major regions of the world rather than individual countries, and on some major implications only. Details will be kept in the background. It is important to keep in mind, therefore, that the general picture to be described is based upon hundreds of investigations, covering a host of specific places, periods and events. Indeed, it is the very multiplicity of these building blocks which accounts for the impressiveness of the over-all structure.

  The main outlines of the structure can be summarized briefly. All nations in the Modern Era which have moved from a traditional, agrarian-based economic system to a largely industrial, urbanized base have also moved from a condition of high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility. In so doing they have almost all experienced enormous increases in population along with massive shifts in their relative numbers of children, adults and aged. Partly as cause and partly as result have been associated sweeping changes in the relation between population and natural resources, in the relation between numbers of consumers and size of labor force, in investment patterns and in the distribution of people between rural and urban areas.

  To give these generalizations even skeletal form requires some perspectives. A first perspective is that the periods needed for maturation of the vital trends just outlined have not been short. Although they vary greatly from country to country and case to case, they have always been long-run, more like quarters of a century or generations than decades, and surely more like decades than single years. We need to remember this when considering the relevance of the experience in the industrialized nations for the underdeveloped economies of today.

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  Smaller Cities in a Shrinking World

  Learning to Thrive Without Growth

  • Alan Mallach(Author)
  • 2023(Publication Date)
  • Island Press

    (Publisher)

  CHAPTER 2

  Demography as Destiny

  Beyond the Demographic Transition “I will multiply thy seed as the stars of the heaven, and as the sand which is upon the seashore.”

  —Genesis, Chapter 22, Verse 17

  Two factors alone determine whether the world and its constituent countries grow or shrink, and at what pace. They are demographic change and migration. Both are fundamentally quite simple. Demographic change is a function of how many babies are born and how many people die. Migration is a function of how many people move in and how many move out. While demographic change affects the world as well as each individual country, migration affects only the balance between and within countries. For the foreseeable future, there is not likely to be any migration to or from the planet Earth.

  Yet beneath that fundamental simplicity lie immense complexities. The factors that drive the cumulative decisions of billions of people and the outcomes of their lives are numerous, constantly changing, and not all fully understood. If we are to understand, however, how our world reached its current population and why it is rapidly approaching a point where the global population will begin to shrink and shrinking cities will proliferate, we must try to understand what forces are driving demographic change and migration and how they are likely to play out over the coming decades. As we will see, far more than it may seem, demography is indeed destiny. In this chapter I will look at demographic change, and in the next chapter, migration.

  The Demographic Transition

  The explanatory framework or model that demographers have used to describe long-term population trends is known as the demographic transition model. It describes a transition through four phases of demographic change, as shown in figure 2.1 .

  During the first period both birth and death rates are high, and populations are low and relatively stable. That period is followed by a second period of rapid population growth, as death rates come down but births remain high, and a third period of continued but gradually declining growth, during which birth rates begin to decline, paralleling the earlier decline in death rates. In the fourth and final period in the classic model, both birth and death rates are low, and populations have once again stabilized. Today, some demographers are starting to add a fifth period, one of population decline, to the model. While that change is clearly necessary, it is not really a separate period. As is starting to become clear in many if not most cases, the so-called low stationary period is little more than a transition between the end of expansion and the beginning of decline.

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  Demographic Dynamics and Development

  • Yves Charbit(Author)
  • 2022(Publication Date)
  • Wiley-ISTE

    (Publisher)

  Demographic Dynamics and Development, First Edition. Yves Charbit. © ISTE Ltd 2022. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2 Demographic Dynamics and Development family models, the value of children, social interactions, intergenerational relationships, and social, racial and gender inequalities. The concepts developed offer an extremely rich field of study for the history of the world’s population, spanning more than three centuries. Indeed, far from a single model of demographic transition – which would be a replica of the evolutions of European countries – temporalities, as well as the variety of demographic changes along the 20th and 21st centuries in developing countries, show a plurality of models. In this chapter, we will successively analyze the genesis of the Demographic Transition Model and its generalization, the current trends in population growth, as well as the demographic transitions around the world, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean. The main results of the chapter should provide an in-depth understanding of the relationship between population and development. 1.2. Genesis of the demographic transition The earliest reference to the consequences of a decline in birth and death rates was first described as a “demographic revolution” by Rabinowicz in 1929 (Adeev 2011, p. 9). Landry chose this reference as the title for his famous work (Landry 1982). Notestein introduced the term “transitional growth” as a reference to the moment when mortality declined, provoking strong population growth, followed by a decline in fertility 2 (Notestein 1945, p. 46). For Notestein, the demographic transition was associated with modernization, urbanization and industrialization; the development of education and public health; increased living standards; fertility control and the adoption of new values (Notestein 1945, p. 57). Davis would in turn publish an article called The World Demographic Transition in 1945.

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  Population

  An Introduction to Concepts and Issues

  • John Weeks(Author)
  • 2020(Publication Date)
  • Cengage Learning EMEA

    (Publisher)

  8. The First Demographic Transition theory is a perspective that emphasizes the importance of economic and social development, which leads first to a decline in mortality and then, after some time lag, to a commensurate decline in fertility, ultimately getting back to something close to zero population growth. It is based on the experience of the developed nations, and is derived especially from the modernization theory, but with important reformulations over time. Copyright 2021 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s). Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it. 135 Chapter 3 Demographic Perspectives and Theories 9. The Second Demographic Transition theory focuses on explanations for the unexpected emergence of below-replacement fertility levels in many, although not all, higher-income countries. It is driven by ideological changes, especially in the role of women and the family in society. 10. The demographic transition is really a set of transitions, including the health and mortality, fertility, age, migration, urban, and family/household transitions. Questions for Review 1. What lessons exist within the ideas of pre-Malthusian thinkers on population that can be applied conceptually to the demographic situations we currently confront in the world? 2. It was obvious even in Malthus’s lifetime that his theory had numerous defects. Describe those defects and discuss why, given them, we are still talking about Malthus. 3. Based on the information provided in this chapter, which writer—Malthus or Marx—would sound most modern and relevant to twenty-first-century demog- raphers? Defend your answer.

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  Asian Development Outlook 2011 Update

  Preparing for Demographic Transition

  • (Author)
  • 2011(Publication Date)
  • Asian Development Bank

    (Publisher)

  PREPARING FOR DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

  2

  Preparing for demographic transition   This chapter was written by Donghyun Park, Arief Ramayandi, and Gemma Estrada of the Economics and Research Department. It draws on the background papers listed at the end of the chapter.

  Introduction

  Developing Asia is set to continue its steady growth in the near term. The region is, however, going through major structural shifts (such as rebalancing between exports and domestic consumption, and rising inequality), which impinge on its medium- and long-run growth prospects. One of these shifts concerns the “demographic dividend” (Box 2.1.1 ) that is now coming to an end for some of its largest economies—the drivers of regional growth.

  2.1.1 Three concepts This chapter refers frequently to three distinct but related concepts: the demographic transition, population aging, and the demographic dividend (or its opposite, the demographic tax).

  The demographic transition refers to the change from a high mortality-high fertility configuration to a low mortality-low fertility pattern. Because of improvements in public health, particularly in containing contagious diseases that affect children, mortality rates initially decline, which cause population growth rates to rise. In time, fertility rates gradually decline, thus slowing population growth rates.

  The demographic transition alters the age distribution of the population (also referred to as the population age structure). Initially, the proportion of young persons increases (generating a pyramidal age structure). As fertility rates decline, the modal age (that is, the age with the largest frequency) of the population increases with the age of the large cohorts.

  This change is referred to as population aging: technically, a rising median age (that is, the age that divides the population in half). This causes the age structure gradually to become uniform if women average about two births each, or to take the shape of an inverse pyramid if lower fertility persists.

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  Economic Growth and Demographic Transition in Third World Nations

  A Chaos and Complexity Theory Perspective

  • Şefika Şule Erçetin, Nilanjan Ray, Saurabh Sen, Nilanjan Ray, Saurabh Sen, Şefika Şule Erçetin(Authors)
  • 2019(Publication Date)
  • Apple Academic Press

    (Publisher)

  The demographic transition theory is a well-known discussion topic on the human population phenomenon around the world. During a transition period, mortality declines, and, after some decades, fertility declines. This changes population growth rates, size, and age distribution, and the trend continues for many decades. Thus, demographic transition, along with growth, changes the structure of population.

  2.3 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

  The demographic transition theory is curiously paradoxical. While there is no general agreement on its explanatory frameworks, it is constantly invoked as if there were. This is due, in part, to demography’s post-World War II desire to be a science and to establish a “grand theory” of population and fertility decline. Yet, even in this quantitatively based discipline, wider intellectual currents have intruded: postmodernism and cultural and anthropological explanations have recently entered the field. Short-term theory is now the order of the day.

  In 1937, Kingsley Davis (1908–1997), an early exponent of the theory, suggested that ultimately the reproduction of species is incompatible with an advanced industrial society. Thus, he established the major framework of the theory, which held that socioeconomic development and modernization are major causal forces. This element of the theory remains robust. In a 2006 volume titled Demographic Transition Theory, one of the most influential 20th-century exponents, John C. Caldwell, argued that in industrial societies, the old values essential to agricultural societies—strong family, virginity, loyalty, and legitimate births—are no longer necessary except as “social pacifiers.” Industrial societies and, even more, postindustrial knowledge economies need mobile, educated individuals unencumbered with babies and family ties.

  2.4 GLOBAL POPULATION SCENARIO

  The global population scenario is an important feature to appraise a country’s demographic transition scenario as well its role in the world population. The world population in 1901 was 1.6 billion. It was 3 billion in 1960 and 5 billion in 1987, while in 1999, it was 6 billion. Every 12–13 years, 1 billion people are added. The birth rate decreased substantially during the 1990s. Increasing employment among women, urbanization, and rising literacy, as well as decline in infant mortality rate have been some major causes responsible for a growing desire for smaller families. Apart from this, the increasing awareness and easy availability of contraceptive devices have made it possible for the majority of the couples to attain a desired family size.

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  New Age Globalization

  Meaning and Metaphors

  • A. Ahmad(Author)
  • 2013(Publication Date)
  • Palgrave Macmillan

    (Publisher)

  But as time passed, mortality rates began to decline due to rising standards of living and better hygiene globally, while at the same time fertility rates remained high in the modernizing, newly industrializing semiperiphery societies of Asia and Latin America. The result was net population growth. India offers the best example of this type of demographic transition even to this day. The reverse trends of declining populations were appearing in some other regions due to relatively lower fertility rates despite lower mortality / higher longevity ratios. 18 Russia and Japan may offer good examples of this type of demographic transition. The current demographic transition theory (DTT) has emerged to account for these more complex population dynamics in different parts of the world than what the simple Malthusian logic could explain. In this three-stage theory, the first stage consists of the initial Malthusian scenario of high fertility combined with high mortalities as a result of high infant mortality and shorter life expectancy to produce the ZPG equilibrium. There is hardly any country or region as a whole today that fits into this gloomy pattern. Even in heavily AIDS/HIV-infected regions of sub-Saharan Africa and parts of India where average life expectancy has declined significantly due to high mortality rates, population continues to grow as relative fertility declines have not occurred. In the second DTT stage population continues to grow albeit at a relatively slower rate despite lower mortalities because of improvements in education, hygiene, and living conditions for larger numbers of people but without corresponding fertility decline due to cultural factors. These trends are currently witnessed in some of the newly industrializing countries, for example, India, Mexico, Indonesia, and to some extent, even China

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  China in Comparative Perspective

  • Stephan Feuchtwang, Hans Steinm????ller;;;(Authors)
  • 2017(Publication Date)
  • WSPC (EUROPE)

    (Publisher)

  Chapter 4

  Demographic Transition

  The ‘demographic transition’ is from couples with many children to couples with few in most of a country’s population. Lower fertility rates are combined with lower rates of mortality, which means people live longer and more of their children survive. It is what economic historians argue occurred either prior to and as a precondition for, or at the same time as, the transition to a reasonably prosperous industrial capitalist economy. It is more than just the breaking out from the kind of demographic growth that produced what Mark Elvin called China’s high-level equilibrium trap because its main condition is security of income for the relatively poor. So it is more than simply the relief of the population pressure on land.

  It is an index related to those of ‘development’ such as income per person above the absolute poverty line and growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person providing that minimum, which is sufficiency of income and its security. But upper classes with high incomes do not necessarily, even with income security, have small families — they can afford many children. So all three indexes indicate lower fertility among the relatively poor. The precondition is the availability of waged work on a large scale with or without increased agricultural productivity. The long-standing resort to which peasant farmers have turned when their land is insufficient to feed the whole family is migration, which is either upland into as-yet uncultivated land or to work as landless labour for other, richer farmers, or to wage work or self-employed small-scale commerce in towns and cities, sending remittances home if possible. But none of these resorts and their availability are a sufficient condition for the demographic transition, as we will see.

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