History

UK Nuclear Deterrent

The UK nuclear deterrent refers to the country's policy of maintaining a nuclear arsenal as a means of deterring potential adversaries from attacking. This policy has been in place since the development of the UK's first nuclear weapons in the 1950s. The UK's nuclear deterrent is seen as a key component of its national security strategy.

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10 Key excerpts on "UK Nuclear Deterrent"

  • Book cover image for: The Development of British Defence Policy
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    • David Brown(Author)
    • 2016(Publication Date)
    • Routledge
      (Publisher)
    Trident . This paper argued that ‘the fundamental principles relevant to nuclear deterrence have not changed since the end of the Cold War and are unlikely to change in future’. The government’s basic stated rationale in this paper was – again – existentialist:
    Nuclear weapons pose a uniquely terrible threat and consequently have a capability to deter acts of aggression that is of a completely different scale to any other form of deterrence. Nuclear weapons remain a necessary element of the capability we need to deter threats from others possessing nuclear weapons (Ministry of Defence, 2006, 17).
    Both reflecting and reinforcing these political statements about the role of nuclear weapons, current British defence doctrine distinguishes clearly between ‘deterrence’ and ‘coercion’, although it accepts that the two approaches are closely related and can be complementary. The doctrine also makes clear that the UK’s nuclear capability is a deterrent rather than coercive force. It states that:
    Deterrence is at the heart of UK Defence Policy; its purpose at all levels of warfare is to dissuade a potential opponent from adopting a course of action that threatens national interests ... The British Armed Forces in their entirety serve to deter, with strategic deterrence ultimately underpinned by a nuclear capability. Deployable nuclear weapons provide an effective means of deterring other states’ use of the most destructive weapons and indicate absolute national resolve (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, 2008, 1–12).
    Strategic uncertainty is also highlighted in the defence doctrine as a positive asset in influencing a potential aggressor’s calculations:
    Whereas the purpose of deterrence is to dissuade an opponent from taking a course of action, coercion induces behaviour that he would not otherwise choose. In reality, it is useful that a potential opponent cannot easily distinguish between deterrence and coercion; most situations are likely to require a combination of the threat of force, reassurance and encouragement to prevent undesirable consequences and to induce desirable behaviour in an adversary (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, 2008, 1–12, 1–13).
  • Book cover image for: The United Kingdom and Nuclear Deterrence
    • Jeremy Stocker(Author)
    • 2013(Publication Date)
    • Routledge
      (Publisher)
    Often overlooked has been the UK's own extended deterrence on behalf of NATO allies, though it was re-stated in the 2006 White Paper: 'we would only consider using nuclear weapons in self-defence (including the defence of our NATO allies)'. 88 This is formally recognised in NATO's 1999 Strategic Concept: 'the independent nuclear forces of the United Kingdom and France... contribute to the overall deterrence and security of the Allies'. 89 More minimal postures than the minimum deterrent have sometimes been suggested, as further moves towards eventual nuclear disarmament and as confidence-building measures. Submarines could be taken off patrol, possibly with warheads removed from the missiles. Britain could even give up an operational capability altogether, while retaining the ability to re-constitute a nuclear force if required. Such policies are sometimes called 'virtual deterrence'. 90 These options are explicitly rejected by the current British government: 'any move from a dormant programme towards an active one could be seen as escalatory, and thus potentially destabilising, in a crisis'. The maintenance of a submarine always at sea is needed to assure its invulnerability and to remove an incentive for a preemptive attack. 91 Nuclear defence The British approach to nuclear deterrence has always been based on inflicting 'punishment' on an aggressor. 92 Faced by the Soviet Union, there was no alternative approach, as effective defence was impossible. But there are two principal forms of deterrence. Punishment threatens a response, the cost of which outweighs any gains from the original action. However, deterrence by denial instead aims to defeat the initial action itself, preventing the realisation of gain. Denial promises resistance, punishment retaliation. Both can be effective and need not be mutually exclusive
  • Book cover image for: A Nuclear Weapons-Free World?
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    A Nuclear Weapons-Free World?

    Britain, Trident and the Challenges Ahead

    The legitimate, valid, and necessary practice of nuclear deterrence as a solution to strategic threats over the coming dec- ades remains a key enabler of the decision to stay in the nuclear weap- ons business well into the second half of this century by replacing the current Trident system. The advent of nuclear weapons transformed the concepts of deterrence and war-fighting in military strategy. 5 Bernard Brodie’s prescient 1946 edited volume, The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and World Order , argued that there could be no defence against nuclear weapons and that states could only guard against nuclear attack if they had the ability to retaliate in kind. 6 Gregory Giles notes that ‘The notion of nuclear deterrence began to be reflected in British military thinking shortly before the first atomic bombings’. 7 He cites the British Admiralty’s conclusion a year earlier than Brodie in September 1945 that, ‘The net effect of the Atomic Bomb is that the price worth paying for peace is now very much higher, and that the main function of our armed forces should be the prevention of major war, rather than the ability to fight it purely on military grounds’. 8 Nuclear weapons were soon understood to represent a qualitatively different weapon whose purpose was to prevent a repeat of the carnage of total war between the world’s major powers. They were inexorably bound to the concept of nuclear deterrence in defence planning as the Cold War unfolded in the late 1940s. Nuclear deterrence theory itself was grounded in mathematical game theoretic models of rational interaction. It asserts that an adversary can be successfully persuaded to refrain from or halt aggressive actions by Deterrence 53 threatening to inflict unacceptable, catastrophic, and inescapable dam- age with a nuclear counter-strike.
  • Book cover image for: Britain's Strategic Nuclear Deterrent
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    Britain's Strategic Nuclear Deterrent

    From Before the V-Bomber to Beyond Trident

    • Robert H. Paterson(Author)
    • 2012(Publication Date)
    • Routledge
      (Publisher)

    CHAPTER THREE

    The Decision to Deploy a British Strategic Nuclear Deterrent

    Introduction

    Much of Britain’s post-war history – in foreign and defence policy, in its economic and social difficulties – has been reflected in the quest for, the achievement of, and the maintenance of a British nuclear deterrent, its warheads and delivery systems. This reflection is but partial, although its implication is that the policy of successive British governments towards the deterrent cannot be seen in isolation either from defence policy as a whole or from wider considerations.1
    T HE RÉSUMÉ OF the historical background in Chapter 1 ended with the deployment of the Polaris boats in the late 1960s while Chapter 2 examined developments in nuclear strategy until 1970. The two key issues on which that period ended were the adoption of flexible response by NATO and, in recognition of the nuclear equality between the superpowers, the United States’ decision to take tentative steps towards strategic arms limitation talks.
    The assessment of the decision to procure and deploy a British strategic nuclear deterrent will now be considered against this background. The assessment covers the period from the lead up to the Sandys 1957 White Paper to the Labour government’s decision, in 1974, to go ahead with the Chevaline programme while simultaneously stating that it had no intention of moving to a new generation of strategic nuclear weapons. This assessment examines three conflicting perspectives: the strategic political goals, the operational military requirements and the economic realities and seeks to answer the nine key questions posed below.
  • Book cover image for: Supreme emergency
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    Supreme emergency

    How Britain lives with the Bomb

    5 Alec Folwell, ‘Opinion formers poll: views on Trident highly politicised as Scotland vote approaches’, Politics, Reputation Research, Scotland, UK. London: YouGov, 2014.
  • 6 Ibid.
  • 7 Mills, Parliamentary briefing paper 7353: ‘Replacing the UK’s Trident nuclear deterrent’. London: House of Commons Library/TSO, 2016.
  • 8 Ibid., p. 10.
  • 9 Brian Cox and Jeff Forshaw, ‘Education is as important to security as aircraft carriers or missile defence’, The Big Issue, 21 November 2016.
  • 10 UK Government, ‘Trident alternatives review’, 16 July 2013. London: HMSO, para. 1.
  • 11 MOD, joint doctrine note 1/19, ‘Deterrence; the defence contribution’, UK MOD Doctrine and Concepts Development Centre.
  • 12 Andrew Corbett, ‘Deterring nuclear Russia in the 21st century; theory and practice’, NATO Defense College Research Report. Rome: NATO Defense College, 2016.
  • 13 I differentiate between the five nuclear weapon states which are recognised by the NPT and four nuclear-armed states (Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea) which are not.
  • 14 Attlee, GEN 75/3 ‘The atomic bomb’.
  • 15 Fallon, ‘The case for retention’.
  • 16 Cabinet Office. Future UK strategic nuclear deterrent force.
  • 17 Michael Quinlan, Thinking about nuclear weapons; principles, problems, prospects (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), 126.
  • 18 Wheldon to Adam, 31 December 1964.
  • 19 Stoddart, ‘Maintaining the “Moscow criterion”’.
  • 20 HL Deb. 24 January 2007, Armed forces: nuclear deterrent. Hansard, Vol. 688, cols 1129–31: 1130.
  • 21 David Owen, Nuclear papers (Liverpool: Liverpool University Press, 2009), 17.
  • 22 UK Government, Strategic Defence Review. London: TSO, 1998, foreword para. 8 and ch. 4 paras 66–8.
  • 23 UK Government, White Paper: The future of the UK’s strategic nuclear deterrent: CM6994 (London: HMSO, 2006).
  • 24
  • Book cover image for: Deterrence
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    Deterrence

    Its Past and Future—Papers Presented at Hoover Institution, November 2010

    C H A P T E R  1 How History and the Geopolitical Context Shape Deterrence Patrick Morgan and George Quester
    D ETERRENCE WAS a well-known practice in international politics long before the twentieth century. It began to take on elements of what was to become cold war deterrence long before the cold war appeared, and thus before the appearance of nuclear weapons. Efforts to develop a robust theory of deterrence early in the cold war led to treating it as an abstract phenomenon, basically the same everywhere. In this paper we highlight ways deterrence has been shaped by surrounding condi tions and circumstances. We also note how a way of practicing deterrence can become deeply rooted, making it difficult to change or eliminate.
    In the immediate aftermath of the 1945 nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, followed quickly by the Japanese surrender ending World War II, it was hardly surprising that many analysts saw nuclear weapons as setting up something qualitatively new and different in the role of weapons: deterrence. Bernard Brodie’s book, The Absolute Weapon ,1 written directly after Hiroshima and published early in 1946, has been quoted many times since on his prediction: “Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be to avert them. It can have almost no other useful purpose.”
    The basis of deterrence was of course the painful punishment that faced the launcher of a war. Glenn Snyder later offered a more elaborate distinction, in his 1961 book Deterrence and Defense, 2
  • Book cover image for: Possibility of a Nuclear War in Asia
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    The proponents of nuclear deterrence cite the relative peace during the Cold War period as a reason for its success. However, it has been pointed by various other analysts that this is not entirely true. They cite the numerous armed conflicts in different parts of the world, while conceding that there were no wars in Europe or a war between the two super powers. However, what many are unwilling to accept as true is that this is due to the existence of nuclear weapons and the deterrent effect of a doctrine that threatened that they would be used. The most that many are willing to accept as true is that nuclear deterrence is a policy whose accuracy cannot be proved. There are many political and strategic causes which may have had an effect - and a decisive one on the maintenance of the relative peace during the Cold War. What is a historical fact and that which is indisputable is that today, both the US as well as Russia have realized that deterrence does not need thousands of warheads and delivery platforms. While both appear to be sincere in their disarmament efforts, they continue to rely on nuclear deterrence as a mainstay for ensuring their security.
     
    1      Steven.E.Miller, ed, “Strategy and Nuclear Deterrence”, Princeton, New Jersey, 1984.
    2      Ram Briksha Kumar, “The Role of Nuclear Weapons in the Emerging World Order”, Doctoral Thesis, JNU, 1995.
    3      Steven.E.Miller, ed, “Strategy and Nuclear Deterrence”, Princeton, New Jersey, 1984.
    4      Ram Briksha Kumar, “The Role of Nuclear Weapons in the Emerging World Order”, Doctoral Thesis, JNU, 1995.
    5      Robert Jervis, “Deterrence Theory Revisited”, World Politics, Vol 31, No 2, January 1979.
    6      See “Bulletin of Atomic Scientist”, August, 1995.
    7      Strobe Talbott, “The Master of the Game: Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace”, New York, 1988.
    8      Roger B. Myerson (1991). Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict, Harvard University Press.
    9      Frank C Zagare and D Marc Kilgour, “Perfect Deterrence”, Cambridge Studies in International Relations, 2000.
    10    Thérès e Delpech, “Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st century :Lessons from the Cold Warfor a New Era of Strategic Piracy,” Rand Corporation, 2012. Accessed at http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2012/RAND_MG1103.pdf
  • Book cover image for: Deterrence
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    Deterrence

    Rising Powers, Rogue Regimes, and Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century

    I S N U C L E A R D E T E R R E N C E S T I L L R E L E VA N T ? 65 its prompt devastation is thousands of times greater than what conven- tional weapons can cause. Nuclear weapons cut through calculations of advantage to speak directly to man’s most basic instincts of survival and preservation. In a sense, as Robert Jervis himself has pointed out, nuclear deterrence represents the negation of strategy, since it sunders military action from any plausibly commensurate political ends. 58 Needless to say, nuclear deterrence does not prevent every conflict or ensure against war— but when it is implicated, its cautionary pall makes war dramatically less likely. It is this blunt reality that explains the post-1945 peace, not progres- sive values or liberalism or economic interdependence. Indeed, Europe’s postwar history offers a more compelling testimony to the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence than any merely abstract argument can offer. Whereas Europe had suffered great wars from the first stirrings of civilization, it passed through a great and fearsome standoff in the Cold War as well as its aftermath without major conflict precisely because all have recognized the consequences of a full-scale war in a nuclear world. Nor was this achieve- ment cheap or easy—to be effective nuclear deterrence must rely on real and fearsome capability and the genuine threat to use nuclear weapons. Thus the Cold War was an era of continual “imagined wars,” with both sides again and again comparing how they would fare in a conflict, bal- ancing each other’s force developments, and working to strengthen their capabilities and make manifest their resolve. 59 The manifest seriousness of both sides, and the fear of what triggering the other’s resolve would entail, led to the cold peace. Yet the very success of nuclear weapons in making great war such an extremely perilous and unattractive endeavor has, paradoxically, made them seem irrelevant.
  • Book cover image for: The Official History of the UK Strategic Nuclear Deterrent
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    The Official History of the UK Strategic Nuclear Deterrent

    Volume I: From the V-Bomber Era to the Arrival of Polaris, 1945-1964

    This basic policy enshrined a full-blown commitment to a countervalue targeting philosophy, where deterrence would be predicated on holding the enemy’s major population centres subject to devastating and large-scale retaliatory action if major aggression were to occur. It was an approach that was considered the best means for a modest-sized nuclear force to assure the purest form of deterrence in a political context where the credibility of the US nuclear guarantee to the Western alliance could not always be assumed. But it is important to underline that the primary aim of the UK strategic nuclear force during this period was to make a contribution, through combined planning and operations with the Americans, to the overall Western deterrent; as Mountbatten had been at pains to highlight, the contingency of an independent retaliatory strike by a Britain standing in isolation from her other Western allies was thought highly improbable by many.
    By the time of COS(57)224’s approval by the Chiefs of Staff in the autumn of 1957 the shape of the UK strategic nuclear force had become clear. A tenyear programme to design, develop and manufacture a force of the most upto-date medium-range jet bombers was bearing fruit, with the V-bombers entering service in steadily increasing numbers equipped with the first generation Blue Danube atomic bomb. Designs for new thermonuclear weapons were also well advanced, supported by an energetic atmosphere nuclear tests series and led by an experienced and versatile team of scientists and engineers at Aldermaston. As a result of the productive meeting between Macmillan and Eisenhower on Bermuda in March 1957, there had been outline agreement to site 60 US Thor IRBMs at British bases, where they would eventually operate under ‘dual-key’ arrangements, with firing of the weapons to be a matter of joint decision between governments. Finally, Blue Streak development promised to give the UK its own indigenous ballistic missile capability by the mid-1960s, when it was assumed that steady improvements in Soviet air defences would make it unlikely that the V-force would be able to penetrate to targets deep within the Soviet Union.
  • Book cover image for: Nuclear Illusion, Nuclear Reality
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    Nuclear Illusion, Nuclear Reality

    Britain, the United States and Nuclear Weapons, 1958-64

    Home was beset publicly by criticism of the ‘so-called independent, so-called British, so-called deterrent’. 3 Which of these realities was real: the military, or the political? Following Margaret Gowing’s official history of Britain and atomic energy between 1945 and 1952, 4 I have divided my attention between ‘policy-making’ and ‘policy execution’. Nearly half of these pages are devoted to an often familiar account of Britain’s political struggle for a credible nuclear defence posture and the international diplomacy, especially in the United States and NATO, necessary to support this endeavour. The rest are devoted to an attempt to establish, as neutrally and factually as possible, the story of British progress in the develop- ment and production of fissile material, nuclear warheads, weapons and delivery systems; and of their modes of operation by the armed forces. Neither can be viewed in isolation, but they are not as closely or simplistically related as the reader might assume. Rather, it some- times appears that there were two distinct British nuclear weapons pro- grammes underway at the same time: one in the cloisters of Whitehall and Westminster, focusing almost exclusively on future spending plans and their justification; and one in research establishments, factories and military bases across the United Kingdom and overseas, focusing on the creation of a real nuclear capability in the here and now. Again a gap between illusion and reality, this time between the making and execution of policy, is apparent. The British armed forces were not necessarily equipped or trained in practice to do what politicians and strategists were talking about. 2 Nuclear Illusion, Nuclear Reality This is certainly not another history of British decline – of deluded British policy-makers clinging to a belief that only nuclear weapons would make them interesting and important in the post-imperial age.
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